Australia Next federal electionby 20 May 2028in 565 days Hung parliament 97% Labor majority 1% Calendar Track record Research
PollingForecast.com Australia
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Australia · Seats changing hands

83 seats change hands since 2025, One Nation up 65

Every seat our projection gives to a different party from the one that won it in 2025. It moves with every poll; the chance is how often the new winner takes the seat in our simulations.

Who takes seats from whom

  1. One Nationfrom Labor 32 seats
  2. One Nationfrom LNP 14 seats
  3. One Nationfrom LIB 10 seats
  4. Coalitionfrom LIB 7 seats
  5. One Nationfrom NAT 7 seats
  6. Coalitionfrom Labor 3 seats
  7. Greensfrom Labor 3 seats
  8. Coalitionfrom LNP 2 seats
  9. One Nationfrom Independents 1 seat
  10. Independentsfrom NAT 1 seat
  11. Coalitionfrom NAT 1 seat
  12. One Nationfrom KAP 1 seat
  13. Independentsfrom LIB 1 seat

Every seat

  1. FisherQLD One Nation from LNP 37% chance
  2. HughesNSW One Nation from Labor 46% chance
  3. GilmoreNSW One Nation from Labor 47% chance
  4. HumeNSW One Nation from LIB 48% chance
  5. DicksonQLD One Nation from Labor 50% chance
  6. BanksNSW Coalition from Labor 50% chance
  7. CowperNSW Independents from NAT 51% chance
  8. FarrerNSW One Nation from LIB 52% chance
  9. BruceVIC One Nation from Labor 52% chance
  10. McPhersonQLD One Nation from LNP 53% chance
  11. BallaratVIC One Nation from Labor 54% chance
  12. DeakinVIC Coalition from Labor 55% chance
  13. SolomonNT One Nation from Labor 56% chance
  14. New EnglandNSW One Nation from NAT 57% chance
  15. BarkerSA Coalition from LIB 57% chance
  16. WannonVIC Coalition from LIB 60% chance
  17. GoldsteinVIC Independents from LIB 61% chance
  18. Eden-MonaroNSW One Nation from Labor 61% chance
  19. CorioVIC One Nation from Labor 64% chance
  20. MooreWA One Nation from Labor 65% chance
  21. BendigoVIC One Nation from Labor 65% chance
  22. RichmondNSW Greens from Labor 65% chance
  23. MoncrieffQLD Coalition from LNP 66% chance
  24. DunkleyVIC One Nation from Labor 66% chance
  25. LindsayNSW One Nation from LIB 66% chance
  26. BurtWA One Nation from Labor 67% chance
  27. KennedyQLD One Nation from KAP 67% chance
  28. HoltVIC One Nation from Labor 69% chance
  29. McEwenVIC One Nation from Labor 72% chance
  30. La TrobeVIC One Nation from LIB 72% chance
  31. BraddonTAS One Nation from Labor 73% chance
  32. FlindersVIC Coalition from LIB 73% chance
  33. McMahonNSW One Nation from Labor 73% chance
  34. MenziesVIC Coalition from Labor 76% chance
  35. WhitlamNSW One Nation from Labor 77% chance
  36. MalleeVIC One Nation from NAT 78% chance
  37. BowmanQLD One Nation from LNP 78% chance
  38. PetrieQLD One Nation from Labor 79% chance
  39. FaddenQLD One Nation from LNP 81% chance
  40. ShortlandNSW One Nation from Labor 81% chance
  41. FairfaxQLD One Nation from LNP 82% chance
  42. PageNSW Coalition from NAT 84% chance
  43. CaseyVIC Coalition from LIB 85% chance
  44. BerowraNSW Coalition from LIB 85% chance
  45. DobellNSW One Nation from Labor 86% chance
  46. LingiariNT One Nation from Labor 86% chance
  47. SpenceSA One Nation from Labor 88% chance
  48. MonashVIC One Nation from LIB 88% chance
  49. MacquarieNSW One Nation from Labor 89% chance
  50. NichollsVIC One Nation from NAT 90% chance
  51. WillsVIC Greens from Labor 90% chance
  52. BrandWA One Nation from Labor 92% chance
  53. PatersonNSW One Nation from Labor 92% chance
  54. ForrestWA One Nation from LIB 93% chance
  55. PearceWA One Nation from Labor 93% chance
  56. CanningWA One Nation from LIB 93% chance
  57. LyneNSW One Nation from NAT 94% chance
  58. CalareNSW One Nation from Independents 94% chance
  59. HerbertQLD Coalition from LNP 95% chance
  60. RiverinaNSW One Nation from NAT 96% chance
  61. GippslandVIC One Nation from NAT 96% chance
  62. MitchellNSW Coalition from LIB 96% chance
  63. MelbourneVIC Greens from Labor 96% chance
  64. MaranoaQLD One Nation from LNP 97% chance
  65. GroomQLD One Nation from LNP 97% chance
  66. LeichhardtQLD One Nation from Labor 97% chance
  67. CookNSW Coalition from LIB 98% chance
  68. HawkeVIC One Nation from Labor 98% chance
  69. DawsonQLD One Nation from LNP 98% chance
  70. DurackWA One Nation from LIB 99% chance
  71. O'ConnorWA One Nation from LIB 99% chance
  72. BlairQLD One Nation from Labor over 99% chance
  73. LongmanQLD One Nation from LNP over 99% chance
  74. GreySA One Nation from LIB over 99% chance
  75. BullwinkelWA One Nation from Labor over 99% chance
  76. Wide BayQLD One Nation from LNP over 99% chance
  77. FordeQLD One Nation from Labor over 99% chance
  78. HinklerQLD One Nation from LNP over 99% chance
  79. ParkesNSW One Nation from NAT over 99% chance
  80. CapricorniaQLD One Nation from LNP over 99% chance
  81. FlynnQLD One Nation from LNP over 99% chance
  82. HunterNSW One Nation from Labor over 99% chance
  83. WrightQLD One Nation from LNP over 99% chance

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