Australia · changelog
What moved in the forecast, day by day
Every day our Australia forecast changed, newest first: each party's projected seats, its share of the vote and its chance of a majority on its own. Days with no change are left out. Earlier days marked "rebuilt" are the model re-run on the polls published by then.
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27 OctTuesday
- Labor: 55 seats (+1)
- Greens: 5 seats (−1)
- One Nation: 26.0% of the vote (+0.4)
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26 OctMonday
- One Nation: 63 seats (−1)
- Labor: 54 seats (−1)
- Coalition: 15 seats (+1)
- Greens: 6 seats (+1)
- One Nation: 25.6% of the vote (−1.0)
- Coalition: 22.4% of the vote (+0.7)
- Greens: 13.9% of the vote (+0.7)
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20 OctTuesday
- Labor: 55 seats (−2)
- Coalition: 14 seats (+1)
- Greens: 5 seats (+1)
- Labor: 27.2% of the vote (−0.5)
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12 OctMonday
- Labor: 57 seats (+1)
- Coalition: 13 seats (−1)
- Others: 11.3% of the vote (+0.4)
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11 OctSunday
- One Nation: 64 seats (−2)
- Labor: 56 seats (+1)
- Coalition: 14 seats (+2)
- Greens: 4 seats (−1)
- One Nation: 26.8% of the vote (−0.8)
- Labor: 27.7% of the vote (+0.7)
- Coalition: 21.6% of the vote (+0.5)
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7 OctWednesday
- One Nation: 66 seats (+1)
- Labor: 55 seats (−1)
- Coalition: 12 seats (−1)
- Greens: 5 seats (+1)
- One Nation: 27.5% of the vote (+0.7)
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3 OctSaturday
- One Nation: 65 seats (+2)
- Labor: 56 seats (+1)
- Coalition: 13 seats (−2)
- Greens: 4 seats (−1)
- Labor: 27.4% of the vote (+0.6)
- Coalition: 21.5% of the vote (−0.5)
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29 SepTuesday
- One Nation: 63 seats (−2)
- Coalition: 15 seats (+2)
- One Nation: 26.5% of the vote (−0.7)
- Others: 11.5% of the vote (+0.4)
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28 SepMonday · rebuilt
- LNC: 13 seats (+1)
- ONP: 65 seats (−1)
- LNC: 21.7% of the vote (+0.4)
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27 SepSunday · rebuilt
- LNC: 12 seats (−3)
- ONP: 66 seats (+3)
- ALP: 27.1% of the vote (+0.5)
- LNC: 21.3% of the vote (−1.0)
- ONP: 27.2% of the vote (+0.7)
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21 SepMonday · rebuilt
- ONP majority: 3% chance, down 6 pts
- ALP: 55 seats (+1)
- LNC: 15 seats (+5)
- IND: 11 seats (−1)
- ONP: 63 seats (−6)
- GRN: 5 seats (+1)
- LNC: 22.3% of the vote (+0.8)
- ONP: 26.5% of the vote (−0.5)
- OTH: 11.3% of the vote (−0.5)
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19 SepSaturday · rebuilt
- IND: 12 seats (+1)
- ALP: 54 seats (−1)
- ALP: 26.6% of the vote (−0.5)
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12 SepSaturday · rebuilt
- ONP: 27.5% of the vote (+0.5)
- OTH: 10.5% of the vote (−0.7)
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8 SepTuesday · rebuilt
- ONP majority: 6% chance, up 5 pts
- ALP: 55 seats (−4)
- LNC: 10 seats (−2)
- IND: 11 seats (−1)
- ONP: 69 seats (+7)
- ALP: 27.2% of the vote (−0.5)
- LNC: 22.0% of the vote (−0.5)
- ONP: 27.0% of the vote (+0.7)
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6 SepSunday · rebuilt
- ALP: 59 seats (−1)
- ONP: 62 seats (+1)
- ONP: 26.3% of the vote (+0.5)
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31 AugMonday · rebuilt
- ALP: 60 seats (−1)
- ONP: 61 seats (+1)
- LNC: 22.4% of the vote (+0.6)
- ONP: 25.8% of the vote (−0.4)
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30 AugSunday · rebuilt
- ALP: 61 seats (+2)
- LNC: 12 seats (+2)
- IND: 12 seats (+1)
- ONP: 60 seats (−5)
- ALP: 28.4% of the vote (+0.4)
- ONP: 26.3% of the vote (−0.6)
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28 AugFriday · rebuilt
- ALP: 59 seats (−1)
- IND: 11 seats (−1)
- ONP: 65 seats (+2)
- ONP: 26.8% of the vote (+0.4)
- OTH: 10.8% of the vote (−0.6)
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24 AugMonday · rebuilt
- LNC: 10 seats (−4)
- ONP: 63 seats (+5)
- OTH: 11.4% of the vote (−0.4)
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23 AugSunday · rebuilt
- ALP: 60 seats (+1)
- ONP: 58 seats (−1)
- ALP: 27.6% of the vote (−0.5)
- LNC: 21.8% of the vote (−0.4)
- ONP: 26.0% of the vote (−0.5)
- GRN: 12.8% of the vote (+0.7)
- OTH: 11.8% of the vote (+0.7)
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20 AugThursday · rebuilt
- ALP majority: 2% chance, down 3 pts
- LNC: 14 seats (+3)
- ONP: 59 seats (−3)
- ALP: 28.1% of the vote (−1.1)
- LNC: 22.3% of the vote (+1.0)