Australia Next federal electionby 20 May 2028in 565 days Hung parliament 97% Labor majority 1% Calendar Track record Research
PollingForecast.com Australia
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Australia · The pendulum

A 4.1-point swing to the Coalition would change 11 seats

Every seat where Labor and the Coalition were the final two in 2025, by how far the holder won on two-party-preferred. Our projection has the national two-party-preferred at Labor 51.1% (2025: 55.2%). On a uniform swing, every seat with a smaller margin than that swing changes hands. The seat forecasts themselves also allow for each state's swing and for independents.

Labor held

  1. BullwinkelWA · falls at today's swing 0.5 pts
  2. MenziesVIC · falls at today's swing 1.1 pts
  3. PetrieQLD · falls at today's swing 1.2 pts
  4. SolomonNT · falls at today's swing 1.3 pts
  5. BendigoVIC · falls at today's swing 1.4 pts
  6. FordeQLD · falls at today's swing 1.8 pts
  7. BanksNSW · falls at today's swing 2.4 pts
  8. DeakinVIC · falls at today's swing 2.8 pts
  9. MooreWA · falls at today's swing 2.9 pts
  10. HughesNSW · falls at today's swing 3.1 pts
  11. AstonVIC · falls at today's swing 3.4 pts
  12. McEwenVIC 4.8 pts
  13. BonnerQLD 5.0 pts
  14. GilmoreNSW 5.1 pts
  15. ChisholmVIC 5.7 pts
  16. BlairQLD 5.7 pts
  17. DicksonQLD 6.0 pts
  18. LeichhardtQLD 6.1 pts
  19. WhitlamNSW 6.3 pts
  20. PearceWA 6.4 pts
  21. SturtSA 6.6 pts
  22. WerriwaNSW 6.8 pts
  23. PatersonNSW 6.9 pts
  24. TangneyWA 7.0 pts
  25. DunkleyVIC 7.1 pts
  26. BraddonTAS 7.2 pts
  27. Eden-MonaroNSW 7.2 pts
  28. HawkeVIC 7.6 pts
  29. MacquarieNSW 7.7 pts
  30. BassTAS 8.0 pts
  31. CorangamiteVIC 8.1 pts
  32. LingiariNT 8.1 pts
  33. BrisbaneQLD 9.0 pts
  34. McMahonNSW 9.0 pts
  35. BennelongNSW 9.3 pts
  36. RobertsonNSW 9.4 pts
  37. DobellNSW 9.4 pts
  38. RichmondNSW 10.0 pts
  39. GortonVIC 10.3 pts
  40. BallaratVIC 10.7 pts

and 39 safer seats.

Coalition held

  1. LongmanQLD 0.1 pts
  2. BerowraNSW 1.6 pts
  3. La TrobeVIC 2.1 pts
  4. ForrestWA 2.2 pts
  5. BowmanQLD 2.4 pts
  6. LindsayNSW 2.8 pts
  7. CaseyVIC 2.9 pts
  8. FairfaxQLD 3.2 pts
  9. MitchellNSW 3.8 pts
  10. MonashVIC 4.1 pts
  11. McPhersonQLD 4.4 pts
  12. GreySA 4.6 pts
  13. CapricorniaQLD 5.8 pts
  14. FisherQLD 6.0 pts
  15. HinklerQLD 6.3 pts
  16. CanningWA 6.6 pts
  17. FaddenQLD 6.9 pts
  18. CookNSW 7.2 pts
  19. Wide BayQLD 7.6 pts
  20. WrightQLD 8.0 pts
  21. HumeNSW 8.1 pts
  22. MoncrieffQLD 8.8 pts
  23. PageNSW 9.3 pts
  24. LyneNSW 9.8 pts
  25. DurackWA 10.2 pts
  26. FlynnQLD 10.2 pts
  27. DawsonQLD 11.8 pts
  28. RiverinaNSW 12.6 pts
  29. ParkesNSW 13.0 pts
  30. BarkerSA 13.0 pts
  31. O'ConnorWA 13.3 pts
  32. HerbertQLD 13.4 pts
  33. NichollsVIC 14.4 pts
  34. New EnglandNSW 17.1 pts
  35. MalleeVIC 19.0 pts
  36. GippslandVIC 19.4 pts

Margin: the winner's two-party-preferred vote in 2025 minus 50. Every seat → · What if the polls are wrong? →

Off the pendulum: other final two in 2025