A month out, the PP and Vox hold 199 seats in our projection
Spain votes on 29 November. Our projection gives the PP 134 seats on 31.1 per cent and Vox 65, a joint majority in 99 per cent of our simulations. Every private poll still has the PP first.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 30 October Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
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No new national poll has come into our average since SocioMétrica's of 25 October, and the polls our last round-up did not cover all point the same way. Sigma Dos for El Mundo, published on 26 October, had the PP on 30.6, the PSOE 26.1 and Vox 19.9, with the PP on 125 to 131 seats and Vox on 66 to 69. A week earlier Sigma Dos had the PP on 31.5.
NC Report for La Razón (24 October) had the PP on 33.1, the PSOE 25.8 and Vox 19. EM-Analytics for Electomanía (23 October) had 30.9, 26.7 and 19, and Ateneo del Dato for elDiario.es (22 October) 31.1, 27.6 and 19.8. Every private poll has the PP first, the PSOE second and Vox third, with the PP between 30.6 and 33.1.
The poll check
Pollsters lean, and our poll check measures how. NC Report and SocioMétrica both usually put the PP about 2 points higher and the PSOE about a point lower than other pollsters. Allowing for that, NC Report's 7.3-point PP lead is about 4 and SocioMétrica's 5.4 is about 2. Sigma Dos leans the same way, less strongly: its 4.5-point lead becomes about 2.5. EM-Analytics has no lean to speak of, so its 4.2 stands. With the leans taken out, the private polls put the PP 2 to 4 points ahead. The CIS usually puts the PSOE more than 4 points higher than everyone else.
Our projection
In our average the PP is on 31.1 per cent, the PSOE 27.1, Vox 18.9 and Sumar 6.5. That gives the PP 134 seats, two fewer than last week, the PSOE 111, Vox 65 and Sumar 9. The PP and Vox together have 199 and pass the 176 needed for a majority in 99 per cent of our simulations, the same as a week ago.
The campaign
Frente Amplio will stand for Congress in every constituency except Teruel. ERC will share lists in the Balearic Islands and Valencia with Compromís, Més, Podemos and Frente Amplio. Alberto Núñez Feijóo has turned his campaign towards the protests in Barcelona and is planning a tour with Isabel Díaz Ayuso and Xavier García Albiol. In the Valencian Community, SyM Consulting for El Periódico de Aquí (30 October) had the PP on 33.7 and the PSOE 29.4, with the PP and Vox on 17 to 18 of the region's 33 seats.
The official campaign runs from 13 to 27 November. Pedro Sánchez and Feijóo meet in their only head-to-head debate, on Mediaset, on 16 November, and the last polls can be published on 23 November.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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