Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 28 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research
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Spain · changelog

What moved in the forecast, day by day

Every day our Spain forecast changed, newest first: each party's projected seats, its share of the vote and its chance of a majority on its own. Days with no change are left out. Earlier days marked "rebuilt" are the model re-run on the polls published by then.

  1. 1 NovSunday
    • PP: 133 seats (−1)
    • Vox: 66 seats (+1)
  2. 26 OctMonday
    • PP: 134 seats (−2)
    • PSOE: 111 seats (+1)
    • Vox: 65 seats (+1)
    • Sumar: 9 seats (+1)
    • PNV: 4 seats (−1)
    • PP: 31.1% of the vote (−0.6)
  3. 14 OctWednesday
    • PP: 136 seats (−1)
    • PSOE: 110 seats (+2)
    • Junts: 6 seats (−1)
    • PP: 31.7% of the vote (−0.6)
    • PSOE: 26.8% of the vote (+0.5)
  4. 12 OctMonday
    • PP: 137 seats (−2)
    • PSOE: 108 seats (+1)
    • Sumar: 8 seats (+1)
    • Junts: 7 seats (+1)
    • PNV: 5 seats (−1)
    • PP: 32.3% of the vote (−0.4)
  5. 9 OctFriday
    • PP: 139 seats (−4)
    • PSOE: 107 seats (+2)
    • Vox: 64 seats (+3)
    • Sumar: 7 seats (−1)
  6. 8 OctThursday
    • PP: 143 seats (+5)
    • PSOE: 105 seats (−4)
    • Vox: 61 seats (−3)
    • Junts: 6 seats (+1)
    • PNV: 6 seats (+1)
    • PP: 33.0% of the vote (+0.6)
  7. 7 OctWednesday
    • PP: 138 seats (+1)
    • PSOE: 109 seats (−1)
  8. 29 SepTuesday
    • PP: 137 seats (−1)
    • PSOE: 110 seats (+1)
  9. 25 SepFriday · rebuilt
    • PP: 138 seats (+1)
    • PSOE: 109 seats (−1)
  10. 24 SepThursday · rebuilt
    • PP: 137 seats (+1)
    • PSOE: 110 seats (−1)
  11. 14 SepMonday · rebuilt
    • PNV: 5 seats (−1)
    • PP: 136 seats (−2)
    • PSOE: 111 seats (+4)
    • JUNTS: 5 seats (−1)
    • PP: 31.7% of the vote (−0.6)
    • PSOE: 26.6% of the vote (+0.5)
  12. 13 SepSunday · rebuilt
    • PP: 138 seats (+1)
    • SUMAR: 8 seats (−1)
  13. 10 SepThursday · rebuilt
    • PP: 137 seats (−3)
    • VOX: 64 seats (+2)
    • SUMAR: 9 seats (+1)
  14. 8 SepTuesday · rebuilt
    • PP: 140 seats (−1)
    • VOX: 62 seats (+1)
  15. 7 SepMonday · rebuilt
    • PP: 141 seats (+3)
    • PSOE: 107 seats (+1)
    • VOX: 61 seats (−3)
    • SUMAR: 8 seats (−1)
  16. 6 SepSunday · rebuilt
    • PP: 138 seats (−3)
    • PSOE: 106 seats (−1)
    • VOX: 64 seats (+3)
    • SUMAR: 9 seats (+1)
  17. 3 SepThursday · rebuilt
    • PP: 141 seats (−2)
    • PSOE: 107 seats (+2)
    • PP: 32.3% of the vote (−0.7)
    • VOX: 18.1% of the vote (+0.4)
  18. 1 SepTuesday · rebuilt
    • PP: 143 seats (−1)
    • VOX: 61 seats (+1)
  19. 31 AugMonday · rebuilt
    • PP: 144 seats (+1)
    • PSOE: 105 seats (+1)
    • VOX: 60 seats (−1)
    • SUMAR: 8 seats (−1)
    • PSOE: 26.0% of the vote (+0.4)
    • VOX: 17.4% of the vote (−0.6)
  20. 30 AugSunday · rebuilt
    • PSOE: 104 seats (−1)
    • SUMAR: 9 seats (+1)
  21. 28 AugFriday · rebuilt
    • PP: 143 seats (+2)
    • PSOE: 105 seats (−1)
    • CC: 1 seats (−1)
    • PP: 33.4% of the vote (+1.0)
    • PSOE: 25.6% of the vote (−0.6)