Spain General election29 Nov 2026in 27 days PP + Vox majority 99% 2023 investiture bloc 1% Calendar Track record Research
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Spain · Votes per seat

A seat costs Podemos 8.7 times as many votes as UPN

Spain elects its 350 seats by D'Hondt in each constituency. On our projection, 30 seats go to a different party than a strictly proportional split of the same votes would give.

Seats against the vote

  1. PP31.0% of the vote 132 seats; 116 in proportion (+16) 0.88 × the average votes per seat
  2. PSOE27.1% of the vote 112 seats; 101 in proportion (+11) 0.91 × the average votes per seat
  3. Vox19.0% of the vote 67 seats; 71 in proportion (-4) 1.06 × the average votes per seat
  4. Sumar6.4% of the vote 8 seats; 24 in proportion (-16) 2.99 × the average votes per seat
  5. ERC2.3% of the vote 8 seats; 9 in proportion (-1) 1.09 × the average votes per seat
  6. EH Bildu1.4% of the vote 7 seats; 5 in proportion (+2) 0.75 × the average votes per seat
  7. Junts1.4% of the vote 6 seats; 5 in proportion (+1) 0.87 × the average votes per seat
  8. PNV0.9% of the vote 4 seats; 3 in proportion (+1) 0.82 × the average votes per seat
  9. Podemos2.6% of the vote 2 seats; 10 in proportion (-8) 4.86 × the average votes per seat
  10. BNG0.9% of the vote 2 seats; 3 in proportion (-1) 1.75 × the average votes per seat
  11. CC0.4% of the vote 1 seats; 1 in proportion (0) 1.40 × the average votes per seat
  12. UPN0.2% of the vote 1 seats; 1 in proportion (0) 0.56 × the average votes per seat

"In proportion": each party's share of the seats if they followed its share of our projected vote exactly. What if the polls are wrong? → · The same votes under other countries' rules →