Georgia, Nevada and Alaska are the closest races for governor
Thirty-six states elect a governor on Tuesday. Most look settled, but in Georgia, Nevada and Alaska the polling averages are within about a point and a half, and Ohio is not far behind.
Polling Forecast
2 min read
data as of 1 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Thirty-six states elect governors on Tuesday. The national mood that helps Democrats in Congress shows up here too, but governors' races turn more on the candidates, and several Republicans are running well ahead of their party.
Georgia. The open seat is the closest of all. Republican Rick Jackson leads Keisha Lance Bottoms by less than a point in our polling average, across 19 polls. It is a striking contrast with the Senate race in the same state, where Jon Ossoff leads by about ten. Georgia also requires a majority, so a runoff is possible if a third-party candidate takes enough. Bottoms' chance: 66%.
Nevada. Governor Joe Lombardo, first elected in 2022, is defending a state Trump won by three points, and the polls have Aaron Ford fractionally ahead of him. Our forecast leans slightly the other way, because the state's lean and an incumbent's usual advantage still favor Lombardo. Ford's chance: 59%.
Alaska. Republican Dave Bronson, the former Anchorage mayor, against Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. Our average has Bronson up by a point and a half. Like the Senate race, it uses ranked-choice voting and will not finish counting until November 18. Kreiss-Tomkins' chance: 64%.
Ohio. Amy Acton leads Vivek Ramaswamy by about two points in our average of 26 polls. Ohio has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006. Acton's chance: 77%.
Then a second tier. In Wisconsin, open after Tony Evers retired, David Crowley leads Tom Tiffany by four (86%). Kansas is a Democratic seat Republicans are favored to take: Ty Masterson leads Cindy Holscher by nearly four points (41% for Holscher). Oregon is the odd one: the polls have Christine Drazan level with Governor Tina Kotek, but the state's lean keeps Kotek ahead in our forecast (92%).
Some long shots have closed in too. Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa by about four points in Texas polls (39% for Hinojosa), and Byron Donalds leads David Jolly by five in Florida (36% for Jolly). In Vermont, Phil Scott leads Amanda Janoo by about four in the few polls there are (59% for Janoo).
Our forecast has 26 Democratic and 24 Republican governors after Tuesday, which would flip the current split. Every race, with its polls, is on our governors page.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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