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Faire bouger les sondages → Tous les outils →80 notes sur les sondages (dix pays), de la plus récente à la plus ancienne. La dernière, le 2 novembre 2026 : « When the polls agree too much: herding, and how our forecast guards against it »
Chaque nouveau sondage comparé aux chiffres habituels de l'institut et à son bilan, la synthèse de la semaine et le portrait de chaque institut. Rédigé en interne à partir de nos données.
Photo: MiguelAlanCS, CC BY-SA 4.0
Espagne · Nouveau sondage · 5 octobre 2026 · épinglé
DYM's poll was taken before the housing vote and the dissolution. It usually shows the PP higher than other pollsters; allowing for that, the lead is 6.5 points.
Photo: Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 2 novembre 2026
Polls of a close race should scatter by chance. In 2024 they barely did. Here is why that matters, and the four things our model does so a pack of look-alike polls cannot make it overconfident.
Photo: Nick-D, CC BY-SA 4.0
Australie · La semaine des sondages · 30 octobre 2026
Essential puts Labor and One Nation on 28 each, while Roy Morgan has Labor 3.5 points clear of One Nation. Our projection: One Nation 63 seats, Labor 55, and a hung parliament 97 per cent likely.
Photo: Hutima, CC BY-SA 4.0
Canada · La semaine des sondages · 30 octobre 2026
Liaison Strategies donne 13 points d'avance aux libéraux et Nanos 19,5, deux écarts plus serrés que la semaine précédente. Notre projection ramène le parti de Mark Carney à 238 sièges, toujours majoritaire dans plus de 99 % de nos simulations.
Photo: WrS.tm.pl
Pologne · La semaine des sondages · 30 octobre 2026
Ipsos's poll for TVP Info has KO 8 points ahead, with PiS well above where other pollsters have it. Our projection gives the parties of the right a majority in 90 per cent of our simulations, down from 92.
Photo: Vysotsky, CC BY-SA 4.0
Pays-Bas · La semaine des sondages · 30 octobre 2026
Verian puts PRO 7 seats clear of the PVV and the three cabinet parties on 44 between them. Our projection: PRO 28, PVV 20, JA21 18.
Photo: European Parliament, CC BY 2.0
Italie · La semaine des sondages · 30 octobre 2026
SWG's poll for Tg La7 puts Fratelli d'Italia on 29.3 and the PD on 20.6, yet has the centre-left ahead on coalitions. Our projection still gives the centre-left 223 of 400 seats.
Photo: Kritzolina, CC BY-SA 4.0
Allemagne · La semaine des sondages · 30 octobre 2026
Both polls since our last round-up have the AfD ahead, by 10.5 points with INSA and 6 with Forsa. Our projection: AfD 200 seats on 27.7 per cent, CDU/CSU 148.
Photo: Le grand Cricri, CC BY-SA 3.0
France · La semaine des sondages · 30 octobre 2026
Le sondage Cluster17, seul ajouté cette semaine, change peu de chose. Marine Le Pen devance Jean-Luc Mélenchon de 18,2 points dans notre moyenne, et notre prévision lui donne 90 % de chances d'entrer à l'Élysée.
Photo: Bondegezou, CC BY 4.0
Royaume-Uni · La semaine des sondages · 30 octobre 2026
Four new polls all have Labour ahead, by 4 to 7 points. Our projection gives Labour 330 seats and a 46 per cent chance of a majority, and the one poll taken partly after the Budget has Labour up 2.
Photo: Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 2 novembre 2026
Thirty-six states elect a governor on Tuesday. Most look settled, but in Georgia, Nevada and Alaska the polling averages are within about a point and a half, and Ohio is not far behind.
Photo: MiguelAlanCS, CC BY-SA 4.0
Espagne · La semaine des sondages · 30 octobre 2026
Spain votes on 29 November. Our projection gives the PP 134 seats on 31.1 per cent and Vox 65, a joint majority in 99 per cent of our simulations. Every private poll still has the PP first.
Photo: secretlondon123, CC BY-SA 2.0
Royaume-Uni · La semaine des sondages · 23 octobre 2026
One poll was published in the week to 21 October, and our average barely moved: Labour 27.8, Reform UK 22.5, the Conservatives 21.5.
Photo: François GOGLINS, CC BY-SA 4.0
France · La semaine des sondages · 23 octobre 2026
Marine Le Pen est à 34,6 % dans notre moyenne, en hausse de 0,8 point, tandis que Mélenchon et Philippe se disputent la deuxième place selon les instituts.
Photo: WrS.tm.pl
Pologne · La semaine des sondages · 21 octobre 2026
KO is on 33.4 in our average and PiS on 21.3. Our forecast still gives the right-wing parties together a likely Sejm majority.
Photo: Alexkom000, CC BY 4.0
Italie · La semaine des sondages · 21 octobre 2026
Fratelli d'Italia is on 27.4 in our average and the PD on 20.3, each up 0.2, with little separating the week's three polls.
Photo: Times, CC BY-SA 3.0
Allemagne · La semaine des sondages · 21 octobre 2026
The AfD is on 26.1 in our average, up 0.8 points, while the SPD and the Linke each fell 0.6 in a week of four polls.
Photo: Can Pac Swire, CC BY-SA 2.0
Canada · La semaine des sondages · 21 octobre 2026
Les libéraux sont à 47 % dans notre moyenne, en hausse de 0,5 point, et notre prévision leur donne la majorité dans plus de 99 % des simulations.
Photo: Dietmar Rabich, CC BY-SA 4.0
Australie · La semaine des sondages · 21 octobre 2026
One poll this week had One Nation on 27 and Labor on 24. Our forecast still points to a hung parliament with One Nation largest.
Photo: Jeroen van der Meyde/Tweede Kamer, CC BY 4.0
Pays-Bas · Institut · 5 octobre 2026
Peil.nl has tended to show FvD 2.2 points above other pollsters. Its record says it has overstated PRO by 2.2 points.
Photo: P. Hughes, CC BY 4.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 2 novembre 2026
Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, Nebraska, Texas and Ohio are all within three points in the polling averages. Democrats need only some of them, but they cannot afford to lose all of them.
Photo: © House of Commons, CC BY 3.0
Royaume-Uni · Analyse · 16 octobre 2026
Run the mega-poll's own vote shares through our model and Labour still gets 358 seats. The difference from our 316 is a weaker Conservative Party and a stronger Restore Britain, not the tactical voting the coverage focused on.
Photo: Aawiosnaa, CC BY 4.0
Pologne · Analyse · 14 octobre 2026
At four national votes since Tusk took office, final polls put PiS or its candidate too low. Our forecast makes no allowance for it.
Photo: Nebojša Tejić
Espagne · Analyse · 14 octobre 2026
104 of 142 private final polls since 2004 had the PSOE too low, but even a repeat of 2023 would probably leave the PP and Vox a majority.
Photo: Jacques Paquier, CC BY 2.0
France · Analyse · 14 octobre 2026
Notre projection donne 228 des 577 sièges à la gauche et 118 au RN, à partir de sondages législatifs vieux d'un an et du schéma de second tour de 2024.
Photo: Canale ufficiale, CC BY-SA 2.0
Italie · Analyse · 13 octobre 2026
At general elections the same pollsters had the M5S too low. Our forecast corrects for that, and the 42% bonus may hang on which pattern holds.
Photo: TobyKohlhagen, CC BY 4.0
Australie · Analyse · 11 octobre 2026
In 29 mid-term poll climbs across nine countries, the populist right held most of its gain and others did not. One Nation's rise is the largest yet.
Photo: Can Pac Swire, CC BY-SA 2.0
Canada · Institut · 5 octobre 2026
Nanos a eu tendance à placer le NPD 2,3 points au-dessus des autres sondeurs. Ses derniers sondages lors de huit élections ont surestimé le NPD de 1,8 point.
Photo: Milliped, CC BY-SA 4.0
Pays-Bas · Nouveau sondage · 5 octobre 2026
The PVV's 12.8% is 1.1 points above our average. Allowing for Verian's usual pattern, D66 rather than the PVV is second.
Photo: Steffen Prößdorf, CC BY-SA 4.0
Allemagne · Institut · 5 octobre 2026
INSA has tended to show the AfD 0.7 points above other pollsters. Its final polls at four Bundestag elections were 1.1 points out per party.
Photo: Lorie Shaull, CC BY 4.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 2 novembre 2026
Democrats lead the generic ballot by about nine points, Trump's approval is in the high thirties, and the Senate battleground has spread into Kansas, Texas and Alaska. Here is where everything stands before Tuesday.
Photo: Rory Arnold / No 10 Downing Street, OGL 3.0
Royaume-Uni · Analyse · 15 octobre 2026
Every final poll put Labour too high, by four points on average. The landslide made the seat calls look right, so pollsters escaped the inquiries of 1992 and 2015.
Photo: Vox España
France · Analyse · 14 octobre 2026
Notre projection donne à Marine Le Pen 80 % de chances d'accéder à l'Élysée ; l'essentiel de l'incertitude tient à l'identité de son adversaire au second tour.
Photo: European People's Party, CC BY 2.0
Espagne · Analyse · 13 octobre 2026
Our projection gives the PP 137 seats and Vox 64, a majority together in practically all of our 2,000 simulated elections.
Photo: Governo Italiano, CC BY 3.0 it
Italie · Analyse · 12 octobre 2026
Our projection gives the centre-left 223 seats under the new law, but with Futuro Nazionale inside the centre-right the bonus switches sides.
Photo: Alison Newman, CC BY-SA 4.0
Australie · Analyse · 10 octobre 2026
Our projection gives the Coalition 43 of 88 seats, Labor 26 and One Nation 13, with no majority in 64 per cent of simulations.
Photo: Januszk57, CC BY-SA 4.0
Pologne · Analyse · 7 octobre 2026
Our projection puts KO first on 193 seats, yet four parties to its right would hold 246, and the 5% threshold decides much of the rest.
Photo: Can Pac Swire, CC BY-SA 2.0
Canada · Nouveau sondage · 5 octobre 2026
Ses 14,9 % pour le NPD sont élevés, même pour un sondeur qui accorde d'ordinaire au parti 1,4 point de plus que les autres. Les libéraux ont 16,8 points d'avance.
Photo: Franziska Kelch (WMDE), CC BY-SA 4.0
Allemagne · Nouveau sondage · 5 octobre 2026
The Greens' 16% is 1.2 points above our average. Infratest dimap usually shows the CDU/CSU a little higher than other pollsters.
Photo: Infrogmation, CC BY-SA 4.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 30 octobre 2026
A namesake on the ballot, a ranked-choice count that ends on November 18, and a fix to our own forecast: Mary Peltola now edges ahead of Senator Dan Sullivan.
Photo: London Assembly, CC BY 3.0
Royaume-Uni · Analyse · 14 octobre 2026
The Greens have lost a larger share of their peak support than any other party, yet the two by-elections they fought hardest were their best since 2015.
Photo: Thomas Bresson, CC BY 4.0
France · Analyse · 12 octobre 2026
En rejouant les derniers sondages français, nous constatons que le Rassemblement national a été surestimé à chaque premier tour législatif et second tour présidentiel, mais pas aux premiers tours de la présidentielle.
Photo: Nick-D, CC BY-SA 4.0
Australie · Institut · 5 octobre 2026
Roy Morgan has tended to show One Nation 1.5 points below other pollsters. At past elections its final polls overstated the Greens and Labor.
Photo: Adrian Grycuk, CC BY-SA 3.0 pl
Pologne · Institut · 5 octobre 2026
On KO, PiS and Konfederacja it is in line with other pollsters. It has tended to show PSL and Lewica a little higher.
Photo: European Parliament, CC BY 2.0
Italie · Institut · 5 octobre 2026
SWG's figures differ from other pollsters' by half a point at most. At past elections its final polls were 3.3 points out per party.
Photo: Antonio.velez, CC BY-SA 3.0 es
Espagne · Institut · 5 octobre 2026
The CIS has tended to show the PSOE well above other pollsters and the PP well below. At past elections its final polls were closer to the result.
Photo: Quintin Soloviev
États-Unis · La semaine des sondages · 30 octobre 2026
Four days out, our forecast gives the Democrats a 65% chance of the Senate, up from 43% on Monday, and 83% for the House. A polling miss like 2014, 2016, 2020 or 2024 would still keep the Senate Republican.
Photo: © House of Commons, CC BY 3.0
Royaume-Uni · Analyse · 14 octobre 2026
Restore Britain takes less from Reform in the polls than its share suggests. The bigger danger for Farage is how fast seats fall with each lost point.
Photo: Kerry Raymond, CC BY 4.0
Australie · Nouveau sondage · 5 octobre 2026
Labor is up 2.7 points and the Coalition down 4.3 since Essential's last poll. One Nation is 1.8 points below our average.
Photo: Mateusz Opasiński, CC BY 4.0
Pologne · Nouveau sondage · 5 octobre 2026
Its PiS figure of 24.1% is in line with how it usually differs from other pollsters. Allowing for that, KO's lead is 10.2 points.
Photo: European Parliament, CC BY 2.0
Italie · Nouveau sondage · 5 octobre 2026
No party moved more than 0.3 points since SWG's poll a week earlier. Its figures sit close to the other pollsters'.
Photo: Remi Mathis, CC BY-SA 3.0
France · Institut · 5 octobre 2026
Les sondages de l'Ifop diffèrent peu de ceux des autres instituts. Lors des scrutins passés, ses derniers sondages s'écartaient de 1,4 point par parti et surestimaient le RN.
Photo: Luis García (Zaqarbal), CC BY-SA 3.0 es
Espagne · Analyse · 3 octobre 2026
Spain's public pollster puts the PSOE ahead while every private pollster in our average puts the PP in front, and the seat law magnifies whichever proves right.
Photo: Michael Barera, CC BY-SA 4.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 26 octobre 2026
Wedgewood Polls admitted on October 20 that its surveys were fabricated. We held 25 of them, and they mattered in one race above all: Mississippi. Every one is gone, along with nine polls from a linked firm.
Photo: Owain.davies, CC BY-SA 4.0
Royaume-Uni · Analyse · 13 octobre 2026
A year ago Reform led on 31%. It now averages 23%, one poll has it third, and Farage is less popular than his party.
Photo: Le grand Cricri, CC BY-SA 3.0
France · Nouveau sondage · 5 octobre 2026
Les 21 % d'Édouard Philippe dépassent de 3,5 points notre moyenne. L'Ifop a tendance à le placer un peu plus haut que les autres instituts, mais pas dans de telles proportions.
Photo: Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils, CC BY-SA 4.0
Australie · Analyse · 2 octobre 2026
Five months before the 13 March election, our projection gives Labor 43 of 93 seats, four short, with One Nation on eight.
Photo: Architect of the Capitol
États-Unis · Analyse · 26 octobre 2026
Nine Senate and governor races are within 2.1 points on our numbers. A polling miss like 2024's flips seven of them to the Republicans; one like 2012's flips the other two to the Democrats.
Photo: Bondegezou, CC BY 4.0
Royaume-Uni · Analyse · 13 octobre 2026
Through 2025 YouGov's Labour figure matched the rest of the industry. Since spring a four-point gap has opened, and YouGov's own first-stage answers show little of it.
Photo: Xfigpower, CC BY-SA 3.0
France · Analyse · 4 octobre 2026
Sur 65 élections dans neuf pays, les partis perdant deux points en fin de campagne ont le plus souvent fini sous leurs derniers sondages, un constat utile pour un premier tour français encombré.
Photo: Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 26 octobre 2026
Silver Bulletin gives the Democrats 76%, Split Ticket 65%, Decision Desk HQ 56%. We give them 43%. The gap comes down to one decision, and on November 4 we will score every forecast, ours included.
Photo: The Conservative Party, CC BY 2.0
Royaume-Uni · Analyse · 13 octobre 2026
At every general election since 2015 final polls put the Conservatives too close to the challenger on the right, by 3.5 points on average, though Wales broke the pattern.
Photo: Lorie Shaull, CC BY 4.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 22 octobre 2026
Read as results, early-vote party splits missed by 11 points across 75 races. Comparing them with the same day last time does no better: a 10-point early-vote swing has gone with about 1 point in the result.
Photo: UK Prime Minister, CC BY 4.0
Royaume-Uni · Analyse · 13 octobre 2026
Ipsos's long series puts Andy Burnham's start among the weakest since 1990, yet most pollsters rate him positively and Labour is six points up.
Photo: Michael Barera, CC BY-SA 4.0
États-Unis · La semaine des sondages · 21 octobre 2026
With 13 days to go, our forecast gives the Democrats a 52% chance of the Senate and 77% for the House. This week's 22 polls were all race polls.
Photo: Number 10, CC BY 4.0
Royaume-Uni · Analyse · 13 octobre 2026
British governments sink about 8 points below their last result by mid-term, more than three times the drop elsewhere, then win much of it back.
Photo: Infrogmation, CC BY-SA 4.0
États-Unis · La semaine des sondages · 16 octobre 2026
Our generic-ballot average is almost unchanged with 18 days to go, and our forecast gives the Democrats an 81 percent chance of winning the House.
Photo: Stephen.Bingham, CC BY-SA 2.0
Royaume-Uni · Analyse · 12 octobre 2026
Our ward-by-ward projection of 215 English councils puts three parties within 120 seats of each other and leaves Reform's newest councils exposed.
Photo: w_lemay, CC BY-SA 2.0
États-Unis · Nouveau sondage · 16 octobre 2026
The lead is wider than in RMG Research's September poll, and wider still once its usual difference from other pollsters is taken into account.
Photo: secretlondon123, CC BY-SA 2.0
Royaume-Uni · Institut · 5 octobre 2026
Across 102 polls it has tended to show the Conservatives 1.7 points above other pollsters. Its one final poll, in 2024, was 1.5 points out per party.
Photo: Lorie Shaull, CC BY 4.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 14 octobre 2026
Measured against their own registered voters, North Carolina Democrats and Republicans are returning mail ballots at about 70 percent of their 2022 pace, with Maine ahead.
Photo: Bondegezou, CC BY 4.0
Royaume-Uni · La semaine des sondages · 5 octobre 2026
Labour rose a point in our average this week. The three pollsters agree on the size of its lead but not on who is behind it.
Photo: P. Hughes, CC BY 4.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 14 octobre 2026
We matched pre-Election Day party splits with results in 75 state races since 2016. Alone they miss badly; added to polls, their state-level signal did not hold up.
Photo: Christian David, CC BY-SA 4.0
Royaume-Uni · Nouveau sondage · 5 octobre 2026
Opinium has tended to show Labour higher than other pollsters. With that taken off, its lead is 4.7 points.
Photo: Marilyn Sudkamp, CC BY-SA 4.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 14 octobre 2026
Forecasters and markets give the Democrats the House at 90% or more. Replay the polls' recent misses and the Senate, and often the House, slips away.
Photo: Ac530, CC BY 4.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 14 octobre 2026
Party-paid surveys fill the gap, Democratic-side releases outnumber Republican ones 118 to 31, and a single poll drove our own Idaho forecast for weeks.
Photo: Thesavagenorwegian, CC BY 4.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 14 octobre 2026
The Senate majority runs through Republican-leaning states where final polls have missed toward Democrats, and a scenario built on those misses cuts their chances to 42%.
Photo: Missvain, CC BY 4.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 14 octobre 2026
Fewer ballots are back in Pennsylvania and North Carolina than at this point in 2022, and past cycles warn against reading the party mix as a forecast.
Photo: LoneStarMike, CC BY 3.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 13 octobre 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 57% chance of Senate control, but the deciding seat is spread across 11 races and the edge is under two points.
Photo: Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0
États-Unis · Analyse · 13 octobre 2026
History says a president this unpopular costs his party about 47 House seats, while our forecast has Republicans losing 16.