Analisi: ogni nuovo sondaggio nel contesto

Photo: MiguelAlanCS, CC BY-SA 4.0 Spagna · Nuovo sondaggio · 5 ottobre 2026 · in evidenza

Spain votes on 29 November: the last poll before the call had the PP 8.4 points ahead (in inglese)

DYM's poll was taken before the housing vote and the dissolution. It usually shows the PP higher than other pollsters; allowing for that, the lead is 6.5 points.

Photo: Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 2 novembre 2026

When the polls agree too much: herding, and how our forecast guards against it (in inglese)

Polls of a close race should scatter by chance. In 2024 they barely did. Here is why that matters, and the four things our model does so a pack of look-alike polls cannot make it overconfident.

Photo: Nick-D, CC BY-SA 4.0 Australia · I sondaggi della settimana · 30 ottobre 2026

Essential has One Nation level with Labor as the Coalition edges up (in inglese)

Essential puts Labor and One Nation on 28 each, while Roy Morgan has Labor 3.5 points clear of One Nation. Our projection: One Nation 63 seats, Labor 55, and a hung parliament 97 per cent likely.

Photo: Can Pac Swire, CC BY-SA 2.0 Canada · I sondaggi della settimana · 30 ottobre 2026

Liberal lead dips in both new polls, but the majority holds (in inglese)

Liaison Strategies has the Liberals 13 points ahead and Nanos 19.5, both closer than the week before. Our projection trims Mark Carney's party to 238 seats, still a majority in more than 99 per cent of our simulations.

Photo: WrS.tm.pl Polonia · I sondaggi della settimana · 30 ottobre 2026

Ipsos puts PiS on 26 as the right's majority chance edges down to 90 per cent (in inglese)

Ipsos's poll for TVP Info has KO 8 points ahead, with PiS well above where other pollsters have it. Our projection gives the parties of the right a majority in 90 per cent of our simulations, down from 92.

Photo: Vysotsky, CC BY-SA 4.0 Paesi Bassi · I sondaggi della settimana · 30 ottobre 2026

Verian has the Jetten cabinet down to 44 seats as time runs short for the tax plan (in inglese)

Verian puts PRO 7 seats clear of the PVV and the three cabinet parties on 44 between them. Our projection: PRO 28, PVV 20, JA21 18.

Photo: Franco Vannini from Sansepolcro (AR), Italy, CC BY 2.0 Italia · I sondaggi della settimana · 30 ottobre 2026

SWG dà FdI avanti di quasi 9 punti, e si parla di voto in primavera

Il sondaggio SWG per il Tg La7 dà Fratelli d'Italia al 29,3 e il PD al 20,6, ma sulle coalizioni il centrosinistra è avanti. La nostra proiezione assegna ancora al centrosinistra 223 seggi su 400.

Photo: Kritzolina, CC BY-SA 4.0 Germania · I sondaggi della settimana · 30 ottobre 2026

INSA and Forsa keep the AfD clear, and our projection now gives it 200 seats (in inglese)

Both polls since our last round-up have the AfD ahead, by 10.5 points with INSA and 6 with Forsa. Our projection: AfD 200 seats on 27.7 per cent, CDU/CSU 148.

Photo: François GOGLINS, CC BY-SA 4.0 Francia · I sondaggi della settimana · 30 ottobre 2026

Le Pen still 18 points clear in a quiet week for polls (in inglese)

Cluster17's poll, the only one added this week, changes little. Marine Le Pen leads Jean-Luc Mélenchon by 18.2 points in our average, and our forecast gives her a 90 per cent chance of the Élysée.

Photo: Bondegezou, CC BY 4.0 Regno Unito · I sondaggi della settimana · 30 ottobre 2026

Labour's projected majority grows to 10 in the week of Healey's first Budget (in inglese)

Four new polls all have Labour ahead, by 4 to 7 points. Our projection gives Labour 330 seats and a 46 per cent chance of a majority, and the one poll taken partly after the Budget has Labour up 2.

Photo: Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 2 novembre 2026

Georgia, Nevada and Alaska are the closest races for governor (in inglese)

Thirty-six states elect a governor on Tuesday. Most look settled, but in Georgia, Nevada and Alaska the polling averages are within about a point and a half, and Ohio is not far behind.

Photo: MiguelAlanCS, CC BY-SA 4.0 Spagna · I sondaggi della settimana · 30 ottobre 2026

A month out, the PP and Vox hold 199 seats in our projection (in inglese)

Spain votes on 29 November. Our projection gives the PP 134 seats on 31.1 per cent and Vox 65, a joint majority in 99 per cent of our simulations. Every private poll still has the PP first.

Photo: secretlondon123, CC BY-SA 2.0 Regno Unito · I sondaggi della settimana · 23 ottobre 2026

YouGov puts Labour four points ahead in a quiet polling week (in inglese)

One poll was published in the week to 21 October, and our average barely moved: Labour 27.8, Reform UK 22.5, the Conservatives 21.5.

Photo: Gerd Eichmann, CC BY-SA 4.0 Francia · I sondaggi della settimana · 23 ottobre 2026

Le Pen leads all four polls; second place stays open (in inglese)

Marine Le Pen is on 34.6 in our average, up 0.8, while Mélenchon and Philippe trade second place depending on the pollster.

Photo: WrS.tm.pl Polonia · I sondaggi della settimana · 21 ottobre 2026

KO leads both polls as KKP gains in our average (in inglese)

KO is on 33.4 in our average and PiS on 21.3. Our forecast still gives the right-wing parties together a likely Sejm majority.

Photo: European Parliament, CC BY 2.0 Italia · I sondaggi della settimana · 21 ottobre 2026

Tre sondaggi danno FdI avanti di sei-otto punti sul Pd

Fratelli d'Italia è al 27,4 per cento nella nostra media e il Pd al 20,3, entrambi in crescita di 0,2 punti, con poca distanza tra i tre sondaggi della settimana.

Photo: Times, CC BY-SA 3.0 Germania · I sondaggi della settimana · 21 ottobre 2026

Four polls put the AfD between 7 and 12 points ahead (in inglese)

The AfD is on 26.1 in our average, up 0.8 points, while the SPD and the Linke each fell 0.6 in a week of four polls.

Photo: Leafsfan67, CC BY-SA 4.0 Canada · I sondaggi della settimana · 21 ottobre 2026

Liberals lead by 15 and 22 points in two new polls (in inglese)

The Liberals are on 47 in our average, up 0.5, and our forecast gives them a majority in over 99 percent of simulations.

Photo: Dietmar Rabich, CC BY-SA 4.0 Australia · I sondaggi della settimana · 21 ottobre 2026

YouGov puts One Nation three points ahead of Labor (in inglese)

One poll this week had One Nation on 27 and Labor on 24. Our forecast still points to a hung parliament with One Nation largest.

Photo: Jeroen van der Meyde/Tweede Kamer, CC BY 4.0 Paesi Bassi · Istituto · 5 ottobre 2026

Peil.nl: higher on FvD and JA21, lower on the VVD and PVV (in inglese)

Peil.nl has tended to show FvD 2.2 points above other pollsters. Its record says it has overstated PRO by 2.2 points.

Photo: P. Hughes, CC BY 4.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 2 novembre 2026

The Senate is likely to come down to six races the polls cannot call (in inglese)

Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, Nebraska, Texas and Ohio are all within three points in the polling averages. Democrats need only some of them, but they cannot afford to lose all of them.

Photo: © House of Commons, CC BY 3.0 Regno Unito · Analisi · 16 ottobre 2026

353 seats? The mega-poll's Labour majority comes from a split right, not tactical voting (in inglese)

Run the mega-poll's own vote shares through our model and Labour still gets 358 seats. The difference from our 316 is a weaker Conservative Party and a stronger Restore Britain, not the tactical voting the coverage focused on.

Photo: Aawiosnaa, CC BY 4.0 Polonia · Analisi · 14 ottobre 2026

Polls understated PiS in 31 of 32 final surveys since 2024 (in inglese)

At four national votes since Tusk took office, final polls put PiS or its candidate too low. Our forecast makes no allowance for it.

Photo: Nebojša Tejić Spagna · Analisi · 14 ottobre 2026

Private polls understated Spain's PSOE at six of eight elections (in inglese)

104 of 142 private final polls since 2004 had the PSOE too low, but even a repeat of 2023 would probably leave the PP and Vox a majority.

Photo: Jacques Paquier, CC BY 2.0 Francia · Analisi · 14 ottobre 2026

France's Assembly would stay hung if it were elected now (in inglese)

Our seat projection puts the left on 228 of 577 seats and the RN on 118, built on year-old Assembly polls and 2024's run-off pattern.

Photo: Canale ufficiale, CC BY-SA 2.0 Italia · Analisi · 13 ottobre 2026

Alle regionali i sondaggi hanno sovrastimato il M5S di 3,3 punti

Alle politiche gli stessi istituti lo avevano sottostimato. La nostra proiezione corregge quell'errore, e il premio del 42% potrebbe dipendere da quale tendenza prevarrà.

Photo: TobyKohlhagen, CC BY 4.0 Australia · Analisi · 11 ottobre 2026

Populist-right poll rises kept 82% at elections, other challengers 26% (in inglese)

In 29 mid-term poll climbs across nine countries, the populist right held most of its gain and others did not. One Nation's rise is the largest yet.

Photo: Wilfredor Canada · Istituto · 5 ottobre 2026

Nanos: the NDP higher and the Conservatives lower, as at past elections (in inglese)

Nanos has tended to show the NDP 2.3 points above other pollsters. Its final polls at eight elections overstated the NDP by 1.8 points.

Photo: Milliped, CC BY-SA 4.0 Paesi Bassi · Nuovo sondaggio · 5 ottobre 2026

Verian has the PVV up 2 points, and PRO still 5 ahead (in inglese)

The PVV's 12.8% is 1.1 points above our average. Allowing for Verian's usual pattern, D66 rather than the PVV is second.

Photo: Steffen Prößdorf, CC BY-SA 4.0 Germania · Istituto · 5 ottobre 2026

INSA: higher on the AfD, lower on the Greens (in inglese)

INSA has tended to show the AfD 0.7 points above other pollsters. Its final polls at four Bundestag elections were 1.1 points out per party.

Photo: Lorie Shaull, CC BY 4.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 2 novembre 2026

Two days out, the polls have hardly moved. Neither has our forecast (in inglese)

Democrats lead the generic ballot by about nine points, Trump's approval is in the high thirties, and the Senate battleground has spread into Kansas, Texas and Alaska. Here is where everything stands before Tuesday.

Photo: Rory Arnold / No 10 Downing Street, OGL 3.0 Regno Unito · Analisi · 15 ottobre 2026

The worst Labour polling miss since 1970, hidden by a landslide (in inglese)

Every final poll put Labour too high, by four points on average. The landslide made the seat calls look right, so pollsters escaped the inquiries of 1992 and 2015.

Photo: Vox España Francia · Analisi · 14 ottobre 2026

Le Pen leads for 2027, and her run-off rival matters most (in inglese)

Our forecast gives Marine Le Pen an 80% chance of the presidency, and almost all of the doubt depends on who reaches the run-off against her.

Photo: European People's Party, CC BY 2.0 Spagna · Analisi · 13 ottobre 2026

PP and Vox on course for a Spanish majority (in inglese)

Our projection gives the PP 137 seats and Vox 64, a majority together in practically all of our 2,000 simulated elections.

Photo: Governo Italiano, CC BY 3.0 it Italia · Analisi · 12 ottobre 2026

Il premio del 42% dipende dalla collocazione del partito di Vannacci

Con la nuova legge la nostra proiezione assegna 223 seggi al centrosinistra, ma se Futuro Nazionale entra nel centrodestra il premio cambia campo.

Photo: Alison Newman, CC BY-SA 4.0 Australia · Analisi · 10 ottobre 2026

The Coalition leads in Victoria but falls short of a majority (in inglese)

Our projection gives the Coalition 43 of 88 seats, Labor 26 and One Nation 13, with no majority in 64 per cent of simulations.

Photo: Januszk57, CC BY-SA 4.0 Polonia · Analisi · 7 ottobre 2026

Poland's right splinters, but together it still outnumbers Tusk's coalition (in inglese)

Our projection puts KO first on 193 seats, yet four parties to its right would hold 246, and the 5% threshold decides much of the rest.

Photo: Can Pac Swire, CC BY-SA 2.0 Canada · Nuovo sondaggio · 5 ottobre 2026

Liaison Strategies has the NDP 4.4 points above the average (in inglese)

Its NDP figure of 14.9% is high even for a pollster that usually shows the party 1.4 points above others. The Liberals lead by 16.8 points.

Photo: Franziska Kelch (WMDE), CC BY-SA 4.0 Germania · Nuovo sondaggio · 5 ottobre 2026

Infratest dimap has the AfD 7 points clear of the CDU/CSU (in inglese)

The Greens' 16% is 1.2 points above our average. Infratest dimap usually shows the CDU/CSU a little higher than other pollsters.

Photo: Infrogmation, CC BY-SA 4.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 30 ottobre 2026

Two Dan Sullivans on the ballot, and Alaska won't finish counting until November 18 (in inglese)

A namesake on the ballot, a ranked-choice count that ends on November 18, and a fix to our own forecast: Mary Peltola now edges ahead of Senator Dan Sullivan.

Photo: London Assembly, CC BY 3.0 Regno Unito · Analisi · 14 ottobre 2026

Greens have shed two-fifths of their poll peak, Reform a quarter (in inglese)

The Greens have lost a larger share of their peak support than any other party, yet the two by-elections they fought hardest were their best since 2015.

Photo: Thomas Bresson, CC BY 4.0 Francia · Analisi · 12 ottobre 2026

Polls overstated the RN at all six Assembly votes since 2002 (in inglese)

Our replay of French final polls finds the National Rally polled too high at every legislative first round and presidential run-off, but not in presidential first rounds.

Photo: Nick-D, CC BY-SA 4.0 Australia · Istituto · 5 ottobre 2026

Roy Morgan: lower on One Nation, higher on the Greens (in inglese)

Roy Morgan has tended to show One Nation 1.5 points below other pollsters. At past elections its final polls overstated the Greens and Labor.

Photo: Adrian Grycuk, CC BY-SA 3.0 pl Polonia · Istituto · 5 ottobre 2026

United Surveys: close to the average on the big parties (in inglese)

On KO, PiS and Konfederacja it is in line with other pollsters. It has tended to show PSL and Lewica a little higher.

Photo: European Parliament, CC BY 2.0 Italia · Istituto · 5 ottobre 2026

SWG: vicino agli altri istituti, lontano dai risultati

I dati di SWG si discostano da quelli degli altri istituti al massimo di mezzo punto. Alle elezioni passate i suoi ultimi sondaggi si sono discostati di 3,3 punti per partito.

Photo: Antonio.velez, CC BY-SA 3.0 es Spagna · Istituto · 5 ottobre 2026

The CIS: the PSOE 4.2 points higher than everyone else (in inglese)

The CIS has tended to show the PSOE well above other pollsters and the PP well below. At past elections its final polls were closer to the result.

Photo: Quintin Soloviev Stati Uniti · I sondaggi della settimana · 30 ottobre 2026

Democrats now favored for the Senate as Kansas and Iowa tip their way (in inglese)

Four days out, our forecast gives the Democrats a 65% chance of the Senate, up from 43% on Monday, and 83% for the House. A polling miss like 2014, 2016, 2020 or 2024 would still keep the Senate Republican.

Photo: © House of Commons, CC BY 3.0 Regno Unito · Analisi · 14 ottobre 2026

Reform's seat cliff: each point now worth about 28 seats (in inglese)

Restore Britain takes less from Reform in the polls than its share suggests. The bigger danger for Farage is how fast seats fall with each lost point.

Photo: Kerry Raymond, CC BY 4.0 Australia · Nuovo sondaggio · 5 ottobre 2026

Essential has Labor 4 points ahead of One Nation (in inglese)

Labor is up 2.7 points and the Coalition down 4.3 since Essential's last poll. One Nation is 1.8 points below our average.

Photo: Mateusz Opasiński, CC BY 4.0 Polonia · Nuovo sondaggio · 5 ottobre 2026

Social Changes has PiS 3.3 points above the average (in inglese)

Its PiS figure of 24.1% is in line with how it usually differs from other pollsters. Allowing for that, KO's lead is 10.2 points.

Photo: European Parliament, CC BY 2.0 Italia · Nuovo sondaggio · 5 ottobre 2026

Per SWG FdI resta 6,8 punti sopra il Pd, quadro quasi invariato

Nessun partito si è mosso di più di 0,3 punti rispetto al sondaggio SWG di una settimana prima. I suoi dati sono vicini a quelli degli altri istituti.

Photo: Remi Mathis, CC BY-SA 3.0 Francia · Istituto · 5 ottobre 2026

Ifop: a slightly higher Philippe, and a long record (in inglese)

Ifop's polls differ little from other pollsters'. At past elections its final polls were 1.4 points out per party, and overstated the RN.

Photo: Luis García (Zaqarbal), CC BY-SA 3.0 es Spagna · Analisi · 3 ottobre 2026

The CIS, its rivals and the arithmetic of 52 provinces (in inglese)

Spain's public pollster puts the PSOE ahead while every private pollster in our average puts the PP in front, and the seat law magnifies whichever proves right.

Photo: Michael Barera, CC BY-SA 4.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 26 ottobre 2026

A pollster made up its numbers. Here is what that did to our forecast, and what we changed (in inglese)

Wedgewood Polls admitted on October 20 that its surveys were fabricated. We held 25 of them, and they mattered in one race above all: Mississippi. Every one is gone, along with nine polls from a linked firm.

Photo: Owain.davies, CC BY-SA 4.0 Regno Unito · Analisi · 13 ottobre 2026

Reform UK has lost over a quarter of its peak support (in inglese)

A year ago Reform led on 31%. It now averages 23%, one poll has it third, and Farage is less popular than his party.

Photo: Le grand Cricri, CC BY-SA 3.0 Francia · Nuovo sondaggio · 5 ottobre 2026

Ifop has Philippe up 3 points, 12 behind Le Pen (in inglese)

Édouard Philippe's 21% is 3.5 points above our average. Ifop has tended to show him a little higher than other pollsters, but not by that much.

Photo: Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils, CC BY-SA 4.0 Australia · Analisi · 2 ottobre 2026

Labor leads in NSW but falls short of a majority (in inglese)

Five months before the 13 March election, our projection gives Labor 43 of 93 seats, four short, with One Nation on eight.

Photo: Architect of the Capitol Stati Uniti · Analisi · 26 ottobre 2026

Upset watch: the polling miss that would flip each close race (in inglese)

Nine Senate and governor races are within 2.1 points on our numbers. A polling miss like 2024's flips seven of them to the Republicans; one like 2012's flips the other two to the Democrats.

Photo: Bondegezou, CC BY 4.0 Regno Unito · Analisi · 13 ottobre 2026

YouGov's Labour share now runs four points below other pollsters (in inglese)

Through 2025 YouGov's Labour figure matched the rest of the industry. Since spring a four-point gap has opened, and YouGov's own first-stage answers show little of it.

Photo: Xfigpower, CC BY-SA 3.0 Francia · Analisi · 4 ottobre 2026

Parties sliding late in polls fell further 24 times in 29 (in inglese)

Across 65 elections in nine countries, parties losing two points late usually finished below their final polls, a pattern that matters for France's crowded first round.

Photo: Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 26 ottobre 2026

Every other forecaster has the Democrats favorites for the Senate. We don't (in inglese)

Silver Bulletin gives the Democrats 76%, Split Ticket 65%, Decision Desk HQ 56%. We give them 43%. The gap comes down to one decision, and on November 4 we will score every forecast, ours included.

Photo: The Conservative Party, CC BY 2.0 Regno Unito · Analisi · 13 ottobre 2026

56 of 59 final polls understated Tories against UKIP and Reform (in inglese)

At every general election since 2015 final polls put the Conservatives too close to the challenger on the right, by 3.5 points on average, though Wales broke the pattern.

Photo: Lorie Shaull, CC BY 4.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 22 ottobre 2026

Stop watching the early vote. It won't tell you who wins (in inglese)

Read as results, early-vote party splits missed by 11 points across 75 races. Comparing them with the same day last time does no better: a 10-point early-vote swing has gone with about 1 point in the result.

Photo: UK Prime Minister, CC BY 4.0 Regno Unito · Analisi · 13 ottobre 2026

Burnham's honeymoon looks brief by Ipsos's measure, longer by others' (in inglese)

Ipsos's long series puts Andy Burnham's start among the weakest since 1990, yet most pollsters rate him positively and Labour is six points up.

Photo: Michael Barera, CC BY-SA 4.0 Stati Uniti · I sondaggi della settimana · 21 ottobre 2026

Ohio polls trim Democratic chances as the Senate stays a toss-up (in inglese)

With 13 days to go, our forecast gives the Democrats a 52% chance of the Senate and 77% for the House. This week's 22 polls were all race polls.

Photo: Number 10, CC BY 4.0 Regno Unito · Analisi · 13 ottobre 2026

Labour's 7-point mid-term deficit is normal for Britain, not elsewhere (in inglese)

British governments sink about 8 points below their last result by mid-term, more than three times the drop elsewhere, then win much of it back.

Photo: Infrogmation, CC BY-SA 4.0 Stati Uniti · I sondaggi della settimana · 16 ottobre 2026

Democrats hold their lead in a week with one new poll (in inglese)

Our generic-ballot average is almost unchanged with 18 days to go, and our forecast gives the Democrats an 81 percent chance of winning the House.

Photo: Stephen.Bingham, CC BY-SA 2.0 Regno Unito · Analisi · 12 ottobre 2026

Lib Dems top our May 2027 council projection as Reform gains (in inglese)

Our ward-by-ward projection of 215 English councils puts three parties within 120 seats of each other and leaves Reform's newest councils exposed.

Photo: w_lemay, CC BY-SA 2.0 Stati Uniti · Nuovo sondaggio · 16 ottobre 2026

RMG Research poll gives Democrats an 11-point lead (in inglese)

The lead is wider than in RMG Research's September poll, and wider still once its usual difference from other pollsters is taken into account.

Photo: secretlondon123, CC BY-SA 2.0 Regno Unito · Istituto · 5 ottobre 2026

More in Common: higher on the Conservatives, lower on the Greens (in inglese)

Across 102 polls it has tended to show the Conservatives 1.7 points above other pollsters. Its one final poll, in 2024, was 1.5 points out per party.

Photo: Lorie Shaull, CC BY 4.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 14 ottobre 2026

North Carolina mail ballots trail 2022 pace equally for both parties (in inglese)

Measured against their own registered voters, North Carolina Democrats and Republicans are returning mail ballots at about 70 percent of their 2022 pace, with Maine ahead.

Photo: Bondegezou, CC BY 4.0 Regno Unito · I sondaggi della settimana · 5 ottobre 2026

Three polls, three Labour leads, and no agreement on second place (in inglese)

Labour rose a point in our average this week. The three pollsters agree on the size of its lead but not on who is behind it.

Photo: P. Hughes, CC BY 4.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 14 ottobre 2026

Early vote counts missed results by 11 points across 75 races (in inglese)

We matched pre-Election Day party splits with results in 75 state races since 2016. Alone they miss badly; added to polls, their state-level signal did not hold up.

Photo: Christian David, CC BY-SA 4.0 Regno Unito · Nuovo sondaggio · 5 ottobre 2026

Opinium puts Labour 4.9 points ahead of Reform UK (in inglese)

Opinium has tended to show Labour higher than other pollsters. With that taken off, its lead is 4.7 points.

Photo: Marilyn Sudkamp, CC BY-SA 4.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 14 ottobre 2026

The Democrats are favored. A normal polling miss could change that (in inglese)

Forecasters and markets give the Democrats the House at 90% or more. Replay the polls' recent misses and the Senate, and often the House, slips away.

Photo: Ac530, CC BY 4.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 14 ottobre 2026

No independent poll in 45 of 65 close House races (in inglese)

Party-paid surveys fill the gap, Democratic-side releases outnumber Republican ones 118 to 31, and a single poll drove our own Idaho forecast for weeks.

Photo: Thesavagenorwegian, CC BY 4.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 14 ottobre 2026

Red-state polls have overstated Democrats by 4 points since 2018 (in inglese)

The Senate majority runs through Republican-leaning states where final polls have missed toward Democrats, and a scenario built on those misses cuts their chances to 42%.

Photo: Missvain, CC BY 4.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 14 ottobre 2026

Early mail ballots trail 2022 in two of three tracked states (in inglese)

Fewer ballots are back in Pennsylvania and North Carolina than at this point in 2022, and past cycles warn against reading the party mix as a forecast.

Photo: LoneStarMike, CC BY 3.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 13 ottobre 2026

Eleven races could decide the Senate, and the margin is thin (in inglese)

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 57% chance of Senate control, but the deciding seat is spread across 11 races and the edge is under two points.

Photo: Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America, CC BY-SA 2.0 Stati Uniti · Analisi · 13 ottobre 2026

Trump's approval is near the lowest of any midterm since 1946 (in inglese)

History says a president this unpopular costs his party about 47 House seats, while our forecast has Republicans losing 16.