Next electionsSwipe · 10 countries
United Statestomorrow
Midterms: House and Senate · 3 November 2026
House242–193
90% Dem majority
Senate81%Dem control
Spain27 days
General election · 29 November 2026
PP132
of 350 seats · 176 for a majority · 31.0% of the vote
PP + Vox majority99%chance
France167 days
Presidential election · 18 April 2027
Le Pen34.2%
poll average
Le Pen wins93%chance
Poland374 days
Parliamentary election · due by November 2027
KO191
of 460 seats · 231 for a majority · 33.2% of the vote
Government majority7%chance
Italy415 days
General election · due by December 2027
Centre-left223
of 400 seats · 201 for a majority · 43.6% of the vote
Centre-left majority60%chance
Australia565 days
Federal election · due by May 2028
One Nation63
of 150 seats · 76 for a majority · 26.0% of the vote
Hung parliament97%chance
Germany874 days
Bundestag election · due by March 2029
AfD199
of 630 seats · 316 for a majority · 27.6% of the vote
CDU/CSU + SPD + Greens97%chance
United Kingdom1,017 days
General election · due by August 2029
Labour326
of 650 seats · 326 for a majority · 27.9% of the vote
Majority for any party44%chance
Canada1,078 days
General election · 15 October 2029
Liberal236
of 343 seats · 172 for a majority · 47.6% of the vote
Liberal majorityover 99%chance
Netherlands1,290 days
General election · 15 May 2030
PRO28
of 150 seats · 76 for a majority · 17.8% of the vote
PRO largest party88%chance
Our projection: Dems take the House on 53.3% of the vote nationwide, with their chances up 13 points this week
Our projection gives Democrats 242 House seats, and a majority in 90% of our simulations. In the Senate we have 53 Democrats to 47 Republicans; Democratic control comes up in 81% of simulations. The Democratic Senate chance is up 43 points in a week. The race most likely to decide the Senate is Alaska: D 50.9%, R 47.9% in our forecast.
- Democratic House majority
- 90%
- 242 seats in our projection
- Democratic Senate control
- 81%
- 53 seats in our projection; the vice president breaks a 50-50 tie
- Democratic governors
- 28 of 50
- 80% range 24-32
First place for the PP on 31.0% of the vote, but no majority
PP and Vox together: 199 seats, 99% chance of the 176 for a majority.
- PP + Vox majority
- 99%
- 199 seats
- 2023 investiture bloc
- 1%
- 150 seats
- Podemos wins a seat
- 69%
- our forecast 2.6%, polls 2.6%
435 districts, one winner in each
Every House seat is up every two years, and in almost every state the candidate with the most votes wins. A third of the Senate is up too, each race statewide. Control goes to whoever holds 218 House seats and 51 in the Senate (50 plus the vice-president).
The Democrats came first at 4 of the last 5 elections
The national presidential vote. Bar: the top two.
Emerson College has the best record in the United States
Its final polls at 2 elections since 2000 missed by 0.5 points per party on average, the best of 33 pollsters we rate here. Each dot is an election; the dotted line is the average for all pollsters.
08 points
Democrats' House chance: 90%, up 31 points since 9 July
Chance of a Democratic House majority, day by day. Dotted line: 50%.
9 Jul2 Nov
Bars: projected seats, with the majority line. Figure: the chance of the outcome named, from simulations that replay past polling errors. 29 new polls in the last seven days, to 1 November.
The latest poll in each of 9 countries
Pollster grade B
PP32.7
PSOE26.6
PP32.7- PSOE26.6
- Vox19.1
- Sumar5.2
Pollster grade B
Liberal45
Conservative30- Liberal45
- Conservative30
- NDP14
- Bloc6
Pollster grade C
AfD29
CDU/CSU20- AfD29
- CDU/CSU20
- Greens15
- SPD14
Pollster grade D
FdI26.6
PD20.6- FdI26.6
PD20.6
M5S12
FI7.2
Pollster grade B
Labour30.2
Reform UK21.9- Labour30.2
Reform UK21.9- Conservative20.1
- Lib Dem9.8
Pollster grade D
Democrats56.7
Republicans43.3
Democrats56.7
Republicans43.3
One Nation28
Labor27- One Nation28
- Labor27
Coalition21
Greens13
Pollster grade C
KO33.9
PiS22.7- KO33.9
- PiS22.7
- Konfederacja12.4
- KKP8
Pollster grade B
PRO18
PVV13.4- PRO18
- PVV13.4
JA2110.4
VVD10.3
Who wins 2028? Pick any Democrat and any Republican
71%Gavin Newsom's chance against JD Vance, early projection, based on early and incomplete polling The odds, the electoral votes and the map for any pairing you choose. Run your own match-up → Spain/CIS: raw against headlineThe CIS gives PSOE 34.0%; only 25.3% of those asked named it
PSOE34.0 / 25.3 PP22.2 / 14.7 Vox17.1 / 11.6 Sumar6.1 / 4.5 The October 2026 barómetro: estimate beside the direct vote, as a share of everyone asked (17.3% undecided). See the raw figures → Germany/The 5% lineFDP misses the 5% line in 76% of our simulations
FDP 4.0%24% BSW 3.2%4% Each party near the line with its chance of getting in: a party that falls short hands its share of seats to the rest. See the projection → France/Round-two correctionThe polls overstated the RN at every one of the 3 runoffs it reached
+3.22002 +4.52017 +3.32022 Final polls had the RN's candidate 3.7 points too high on average. We take 1.8 off; correcting was closer at 4 of 5 past runoffs. See round two →Odds no one else gives
Where no other site runs a model with probabilitiesRaw answers, not only headlines
What people told the pollsters, beside what was publishedNew: try them
Which ministers would lose their seats?
Kanishka Narayan84%
Richard Holden77% Chris Bryant
72% The cabinet and shadow cabinet →
The best and worst president and VP pairings
Amy Klobuchar + Mark Kelly77%
Doug Burgum + Brian Kemp44% Every strong and weak ticket →
Same votes, other rulesUnited Kingdom under another country's rules
201 Labour seats−123 on today's rules
Labour largest, 125 short
Canada, Australia, France give the same seats as the UK's own rules here, so they share a button.
What if America counted differently?
Gavin Newsom Rejoin by constituencyWould your seat vote to rejoin the EU?
Next to tip
Find your seat →Every pollster's final poll in ten countries since 2000, against the result. No other site we know of ranks them across countries.
Most accurate pollsters
Average miss per party of each pollster's final poll, two or more elections since 2000
| 1 | Emerson College | 0.48 | |
| 2 | Wahlkreisprognose | 0.81 | |
| 3 | Democracy Corps / Greenberg Quinlan Rosner | 0.82 | |
| 4 | Galaxy Research | 0.83 | |
| 5 | uComms | 0.88 | |
| 6 | Ipsos Deutschland | 0.90 | |
| 7 | Obradoiro de Socioloxía | 0.97 | |
| 8 | Mainstreet Research | 1.06 | |
| 9 | Forsa | 1.08 | |
| 10 | INSA | 1.13 | |
| 11 | Nanos Research | 1.16 | |
| 12 | Harris Interactive | 1.20 |
Most accurate polls
Average miss per party of the final polls, elections since 2000, points
| 1 | Germany | 1.26 | |
| 2 | Canada | 1.32 | |
| 3 | France | 1.33 | |
| 4 | Australia | 1.38 | |
| 5 | United States | 1.58 | |
| 6 | Poland | 1.72 | |
| 7 | Netherlands | 1.73 | |
| 8 | United Kingdom | 1.74 | |
| 9 | Spain | 2.13 | |
| 10 | Italy | 2.65 |
Photo: MiguelAlanCS, CC BY-SA 4.0
Spain · New poll · 5 Oct
Spain votes on 29 November: the last poll before the call had the PP 8.4 points ahead
DYM's poll was taken before the housing vote and the dissolution. It usually shows the PP higher than other pollsters; allowing for that, the lead is 6.5 points. Read it →
Photo: Martin Falbisoner, CC BY-SA 3.0
United States · Analysis · 2 Nov
When the polls agree too much: herding, and how our forecast guards against it
Polls of a close race should scatter by chance. In 2024 they barely did. Here is why that matters, and the four things our model does so a pack of look-alike polls cannot make it overconfident. Read it →
Photo: © House of Commons, CC BY 3.0
United Kingdom · Analysis · 16 Oct
353 seats? The mega-poll's Labour majority comes from a split right, not tactical voting
Run the mega-poll's own vote shares through our model and Labour still gets 358 seats. The difference from our 316 is a weaker Conservative Party and a stronger Restore Britain, not the tactical voting the coverage focused on. Read it →
Photo: Aawiosnaa, CC BY 4.0
Poland · Analysis · 14 Oct
Polls understated PiS in 31 of 32 final surveys since 2024
At four national votes since Tusk took office, final polls put PiS or its candidate too low. Our forecast makes no allowance for it. Read it →
Photo: Jacques Paquier, CC BY 2.0
France · Analysis · 14 Oct
France's Assembly would stay hung if it were elected now
Our seat projection puts the left on 228 of 577 seats and the RN on 118, built on year-old Assembly polls and 2024's run-off pattern. Read it →
Photo: Canale ufficiale, CC BY-SA 2.0
Italy · Analysis · 13 Oct
Polls had Five Star 3.3 points too high at Italian regionals
At general elections the same pollsters had the M5S too low. Our forecast corrects for that, and the 42% bonus may hang on which pattern holds. Read it →The polls, the research and everything else
Everything else The election calendar, every tool and page, and the data to download
Every table and download for the ten countries: data and reference →
- Election nightThe midterms are tomorrow
The count from the states' own feeds, with our live model.
- Election nightWhen the polls close
State by state, and which races we can call early.
- Election nightThe early vote so far
Ballots cast against 2022 and 2024.
- ToolIf the polls are wrong
Set your own polling error, or the vote shares, and watch the seats move.
- ToolMake your own US map
Rate every race, share the link, and see how often our model agrees.
- By-elections / UKWestminster by-elections since 2024
Each result against the seat's last general election and what our model expected.
- By-elections / FRLegislative by-elections since 2024
Each result against the seat's last general election and what our model expected.
- By-elections / CAFederal by-elections since 2025
Each result against the riding's last general election and what our model expected.
- By-elections / AUFederal by-elections since 2025
Each result against the division's last general election and what our model expected.
- Special elections / USHouse special elections since January 2025
Each result against the district's lean and what our model expected.
- CalendarEvery election we cover
National and regional votes in ten countries, with our projection for each.
- Track recordPollster leaderboard
Every pollster's final polls against the result since 2000.
- ResearchResearch papers
The method in depth: the maths, the tests and the limits.
Next elections
-
3Nov 26
US: Midterms: House and Senate, Senate, governors
tomorrow. Democrats win the House 242-193
-
28Nov 26
Australia: Victorian state election
26 days. Coalition 48 of 88 seats (45 for a majority)
-
29Nov 26
Spain: General election
27 days. PP largest on 132 seats, PSOE 112
-
13Mar 27
Australia: New South Wales state election
131 days. Labor 43 of 93 seats (47 for a majority)
-
17Mar 27
Netherlands: Provincial elections
135 days. Cabinet parties 22 of 75 Senate seats (now 22)
-
18Apr 27
France: Presidential election
167 days. Marine Le Pen favourite to win
-
23May 27
Spain: Municipal and regional elections
202 days.
-
5Oct 27
Canada: Manitoba provincial election
337 days. NDP 43 of 57 seats (29 for a majority)
-
18Oct 27
Canada: Alberta provincial election
350 days. NDP 44 of 87 seats (44 for a majority)
-
2Nov 27
US: Governors: Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi
365 days. Early projection: Kentucky 24% D, Louisiana 30% D, Mississippi 31% D