United Kingdom · Local elections · Scotland · 6 May 2027 · in 185 days
SNP would win the most council seats in Scotland: 449 of 1,223
All 32 Scottish councils elect every councillor on 6 May 2027, by single transferable vote in multi-member wards. We take every ward's 2022 first preferences and move each party by its change in Holyrood constituency voting intention since spring 2022: SNP 35% (46% then), Labour 19% (24%), Reform UK 15% (not polled then), Conservative 13% (19%). Average of 4 Holyrood polls to 14 October 2026.
- 32councils
- 1,223councillors
- 2councils change hands
- 29with no party in control (2022: 27)
Try it
What if the national vote changes? Every council
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 32 councils with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
Councillors, against 2022
SNP −4
449
councillors, 2022: 453
Runs 0 councils (2022: 1)
−73
+203
Independent −4
145
councillors, 2022: 149
Runs 3 councils (2022: 3)
−104
−1
−18
Others +1
4
councillors, 2022: 3
Runs 0 councils (2022: 0)
Independents are counted together here but are not one group: a council counts as run by independents only where they hold a majority between them.
Who runs each council
The closest councils
No outcome above 70% in our simulations.
Every council
- Aberdeen City45 seats NOC No overall control NOC 98% · SNP 3% SNP 20 of 45
- Aberdeenshire70 seats NOC No overall control NOC over 99% SNP 21 of 70
- Angus28 seats NOC No overall control NOC 97% · SNP 4% SNP 12 of 28
- Argyll & Bute36 seats NOC No overall control NOC over 99% SNP 12 of 36
- Clackmannanshire18 seats NOC No overall control NOC 94% · SNP 6% SNP 9 of 18
- Dumfries & Galloway43 seats NOC No overall control NOC over 99% Conservative 14 of 43
- Dundee City29 seats SNP No overall control NOC 81% · SNP 19% SNP 14 of 29
- East Ayrshire32 seats NOC No overall control NOC 88% · SNP 12% SNP 14 of 32
- East Dunbartonshire22 seats NOC No overall control NOC over 99% SNP 8 of 22
- East Lothian22 seats NOC No overall control NOC over 99% SNP 7 of 22
- East Renfrewshire18 seats NOC No overall control NOC over 99% SNP 5 of 18
- Edinburgh63 seats NOC No overall control NOC over 99% SNP 20 of 63
- Falkirk30 seats NOC No overall control NOC 87% · SNP 13% SNP 13 of 30
- Fife75 seats NOC No overall control NOC 94% · SNP 6% SNP 30 of 75
- Glasgow City85 seats NOC No overall control NOC 98% · SNP 3% SNP 35 of 85
- Highland74 seats NOC No overall control NOC over 99% SNP 22 of 74
- Inverclyde22 seats NOC No overall control NOC over 99% SNP 9 of 22
- Midlothian18 seats NOC No overall control NOC 90% · SNP 10% SNP 8 of 18
- Moray26 seats NOC No overall control NOC over 99% SNP 10 of 26
- Na h-Eileanan Siar27 seats Independents Independents Independents 88% · NOC 12% SNP 5 of 27
- North Ayrshire33 seats NOC No overall control NOC 84% · SNP 17% SNP 15 of 33
- North Lanarkshire77 seats NOC No overall control NOC 68% · SNP 32% SNP 37 of 77
- Orkney Islands21 seats Independents Independents Independents over 99% Reform UK 2 of 21
- Perth & Kinross40 seats NOC No overall control NOC 99% · SNP 2% SNP 14 of 40
- Renfrewshire43 seats NOC No overall control NOC 77% · SNP 24% SNP 20 of 43
- Scottish Borders34 seats NOC No overall control NOC over 99% SNP 9 of 34
- Shetland Islands22 seats Independents Independents Independents 83% · NOC 17% Reform UK 6 of 22
- South Ayrshire28 seats NOC No overall control NOC over 99% SNP 9 of 28
- South Lanarkshire64 seats NOC No overall control NOC 94% · SNP 6% SNP 27 of 64
- Stirling23 seats NOC No overall control NOC 96% · SNP 4% SNP 8 of 23
- West Dunbartonshire22 seats Labour No overall control NOC 84% · SNP 15% SNP 9 of 22
- West Lothian33 seats NOC No overall control NOC 90% · SNP 10% SNP 15 of 33
How it works
- Each ward starts from its 2022 first preferences: each party's share of the ward's first-preference votes; each independent keeps their own vote.
- Each party's share moves by its change in Holyrood constituency voting intention between the polls of spring 2022 and our latest Holyrood polls: half uniform, half proportional (a rising party's proportional gain capped at three times its 2022 share). Independents and others move with everyone outside the six parties. Then each party is scaled so that the wards add up to the polls.
- Reform UK and the Greens stand in every ward: where they had no candidate in 2022 they get one at 70% of their national share. Other parties field as many candidates as in 2022, or more where their vote now covers more quotas.
- Seats: a seat for every full Droop quota of first preferences, the rest to the largest remainders. Applied to the 2022 first preferences, this rule gives 1,156 of the 1,223 seats to the party that actually won them. Real counts also move on transfers, which we do not model: parties that attract transfers (the SNP and Greens from each other, the unionist parties from each other) can win a seat more than this shows. 400 simulated elections per council give the chances of control.
- This is a projection from national polls, not a poll of each ward. By-elections since 2022 are not counted.
- Data: ward results from the Electoral Management Board for Scotland; Holyrood polls as on our Holyrood page. English councils → · Welsh councils →
