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Move the polls → Every tool →Where the polls stood 2 years and 9 months before each of the last two general elections, and what happened next. 2019 came early, so it is taken at the same distance from the election before. The biggest move from this point: Conservative in 2024, −15.4 points between the polls and the result.
The average of the polls around the same point in each cycle (each pollster counted once), the line to polling day, and the result. The dashed line is this point.
Conservative led by 4.1. Labour won the vote instead, by 10.0.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 39.1 | 23.7 | −15.4 |
| Labour | 35.0 | 33.7 | −1.3 |
| Reform UK | 2.9 | 14.3 | +11.4 |
| Lib Dem | 9.3 | 12.2 | +2.9 |
| Green | 6.2 | 6.7 | +0.5 |
| SNP | 4.7 | 2.5 | −2.2 |
Conservative led by 9.1. Conservative won the vote by 11.5 on 12 December.
| Party | Then | Result | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 34.6 | 43.6 | +9.0 |
| Labour | 25.5 | 32.1 | +6.6 |
| Lib Dem | 18.4 | 11.6 | −6.8 |
| Reform UK | 12.2 | 2.0 | −10.2 |
| SNP | 3.9 | 3.9 | 0.0 |
| Green | 3.8 | 2.7 | −1.1 |
Today's average, then each party moved by as much as it did between this point and polling day in each past cycle. Where a party did not stand, or polled under another name we cannot match, the cell is blank.
| Party | Today | As in 2024 | As in 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour | 28.3 | 27.0 | 34.9 |
| Reform UK | 22.4 | 33.8 | 12.2 |
| Conservative | 21.4 | 6.0 | 30.4 |
| Lib Dem | 10.4 | 13.3 | 3.6 |
| Green | 9.1 | 9.6 | 8.0 |
Reform UK would overtake in one of the two. A party's move in one cycle belongs to that campaign; this shows the size of change that has happened from here, not a forecast. Our forecast →
For each past election we take every national voting-intention poll published in the fortnight either side of the same point (three weeks, or five where polls were sparse), average each pollster's polls, then average the pollsters. The UK figures are Great Britain polls against UK-wide results; Reform UK's line is UKIP in 2017 and the Brexit Party in 2019.
Polls: Opinion polling for the 2017 United Kingdom general election, Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election, Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election, Wikipedia, under CC BY-SA 4.0. Results: the national electoral authorities. Today: our poll average, updated with every poll.
The latest polls → · How accurate the pollsters have been → · What if the polls are wrong? →
