United Kingdom · Local elections · Wales · 6 May 2027 · in 185 days
Plaid Cymru would win the most council seats in Wales: 326 of 1,234
All 22 Welsh councils elect every councillor on 6 May 2027. We take every ward's 2022 result and move each party by its change in Senedd voting intention since spring 2022: Plaid Cymru 32% (21% then), Reform UK 28% (5%), Labour 15% (38%), Conservative 11% (24%). Average of 3 Senedd polls to 30 September 2026.
- 22councils
- 1,234councillors
- 11councils change hands
- 10with no party in control (2022: 9)
Try it
What if the national vote changes? Every council
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns all 22 councils with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
Councillors, against 2022
Independent +85
388
councillors, 2022: 303
Runs 6 councils (2022: 1)
Plaid Cymru +124
326
councillors, 2022: 202
Runs 5 councils (2022: 4)
+212
−13
−445
+57
−22
Local groups and others +2
15
councillors, 2022: 13
Runs 0 councils (2022: 0)
Independents are counted together here but are not one group: a council counts as run by independents only where they hold a majority between them.
Who runs each council
The closest councils
No outcome above 70% in our simulations.
Torfaen
Labour in 2022 · 40 seats
No overall control 43% · Independent 31%
Conwy
NOC in 2022 · 55 seats
Independent 49% · No overall control 36%
Pembrokeshire
Independents in 2022 · 60 seats
No overall control 52% · Independent 45%
Merthyr Tydfil
NOC in 2022 · 30 seats
Independent 53% · Reform UK 38%
Blaenau Gwent
Labour in 2022 · 33 seats
Independent 53% · Reform UK 33%
Bridgend
Labour in 2022 · 51 seats
Independent 53% · Reform UK 36%
Wrexham
NOC in 2022 · 56 seats
Independent 55% · No overall control 32%
Flintshire
NOC in 2022 · 67 seats
Independent 55% · Reform UK 35%
Every council
- Blaenau Gwent33 seats Labour Independents Independents 53% · Reform UK 33% Reform UK 4 of 33
- BridgendPen-y-bont ar Ogwr · 51 seats Labour Independents Independents 53% · Reform UK 36% Reform UK 14 of 51
- CaerphillyCaerffili · 69 seats Labour Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru 96% · NOC 4% Plaid Cymru 44 of 69
- CardiffCaerdydd · 79 seats Labour No overall control NOC 77% · Reform UK 22% Reform UK 28 of 79
- CarmarthenshireSir Gaerfyrddin · 75 seats Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru 87% · NOC 13% Plaid Cymru 50 of 75
- Ceredigion38 seats Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru 57% · Independents 27% Plaid Cymru 23 of 38
- Conwy55 seats NOC No overall control Independents 49% · NOC 36% Reform UK 15 of 55
- DenbighshireSir Ddinbych · 48 seats NOC No overall control NOC 95% · Reform UK 5% Conservative 12 of 48
- FlintshireSir y Fflint · 67 seats NOC Independents Independents 55% · Reform UK 35% Reform UK 8 of 67
- Gwynedd69 seats Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru 71% · Independents 26% Plaid Cymru 48 of 69
- Isle of AngleseyYnys Môn · 35 seats Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru Plaid Cymru 57% · Independents 36% Plaid Cymru 22 of 35
- Merthyr TydfilMerthyr Tudful · 30 seats NOC Independents Independents 53% · Reform UK 38% Reform UK 5 of 30
- MonmouthshireSir Fynwy · 46 seats NOC No overall control NOC 88% · Conservative 9% Conservative 16 of 46
- Neath Port TalbotCastell-nedd Port Talbot · 60 seats NOC No overall control NOC 85% · Plaid Cymru 14% Plaid Cymru 23 of 60
- NewportCasnewydd · 51 seats Labour Reform UK NOC 68% · Reform UK 31% Reform UK 28 of 51
- PembrokeshireSir Benfro · 60 seats Independents Independents NOC 52% · Independents 45% Conservative 10 of 60
- Powys68 seats NOC No overall control NOC 61% · Independents 37% Lib Dem 14 of 68
- Rhondda Cynon Taf75 seats Labour No overall control NOC 80% · Plaid Cymru 17% Plaid Cymru 31 of 75
- SwanseaAbertawe · 75 seats Labour No overall control NOC 79% · Reform UK 21% Reform UK 25 of 75
- TorfaenTor-faen · 40 seats Labour No overall control NOC 43% · Independents 31% Labour 11 of 40
- Vale of GlamorganBro Morgannwg · 54 seats NOC No overall control NOC 97% · Reform UK 3% Reform UK 14 of 54
- WrexhamWrecsam · 56 seats NOC Independents Independents 55% · NOC 32% Plaid Cymru 12 of 56
How it works
- Each ward starts from its 2022 result, the last election on today's wards. A party's ward share is its best candidate's vote against the sum of each party's best; each independent keeps their own vote. 74 seats were uncontested in 2022: their winners stand again at an equal share.
- Each party's share moves by its change in Senedd voting intention between the polls of spring 2022 and our latest Senedd polls: half uniform, half proportional (a rising party's proportional gain is capped at three times its 2022 share). Independents and local groups move with everyone outside the six parties. Then each party is scaled so that the wards add up to the polls: across every contested ward, the six parties share the vote independents leave in the proportions our Senedd polls give them (Reform UK stood in no ward in 2022, so without this it would sit far below its polling everywhere).
- Reform UK and Plaid Cymru stand in every ward: where they had no candidate in 2022 they get one at 70% of their national share. Other parties stand where they stood in 2022. Candidates are not known until nominations close in April 2027.
- The top candidates in each ward win its seats; 400 simulated elections per council (a national miss, a council miss and ward noise) give the chances of control. By-elections since 2022 are not counted.
- This is a projection from national polls, not a poll of each ward: independents, who won 303 of 1,234 Welsh council seats in 2022, depend on local people standing, and no national poll measures them.
- Data: ward results from Democracy Club (via WhoCanIVoteFor, CC BY-SA 4.0); Senedd polls as on our regional polls page. English councils →
