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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Pembrokeshire

Pembrokeshire: independents would keep a majority between them

Pembrokeshire (Sir Benfro) elects all 60 councillors in 59 wards on 6 May 2027; 31 make a majority. In 2022: Independent 35, Conservative 11, Labour 10, Lib Dem 2, Plaid Cymru 2.

The council after 6 May, our projection

Independent −1
34 seats · 0–45 in 80% of runs · 2022: 35 Control 45%
−1
10 seats · 6–17 in 80% of runs · 2022: 11 Control 0%
−3
7 seats · 4–8 in 80% of runs · 2022: 10 Control 0%
Plaid Cymru +3
5 seats · 2–15 in 80% of runs · 2022: 2 Control 0%
±0
2 seats · 0–3 in 80% of runs · 2022: 2 Control 0%
+1
1 seats · 0–28 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 4%
+1
1 seats · 0–3 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (31 of 60). No overall control in 52% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

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What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Pembrokeshire

    Pembrokeshire (Sir Benfro) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 60 councillors in 59 wards. It had 123,360 residents at the 2021 census. 26.2% of its people are 65 or over, more than the 18.6% across England and Wales; 94.7% of residents are white British, more than the 74.4% across England and Wales.

    At the last election, in May 2022, independents won 35 seats, the Conservatives 11 and Labour 10; 19 wards were uncontested. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model gives independents a majority, with 34 of 60 seats.

    Ward by ward

    1. Amroth and Saundersfoot North1 seat Lib Dem 55% chance Lib Dem 28 · Green 26 · Reform UK 18 2022: Lib Dem 58 · Conservative 32 · Green 10; won by Lib Dem
    2. Boncath and Clydau1 seat Plaid Cymru 60% chance Plaid Cymru 42 · Independent 39 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 52 · Plaid Cymru 48; won by Independent
    3. Bro Gwaun1 seat Independent 48% chance Independent 40 · Lib Dem 26 · Reform UK 20 2022: Independent 52 · Lib Dem 48; won by Independent
    4. Burton1 seat Conservative 63% chance Conservative 38 · Independent 29 · Reform UK 19 2022: Conservative 62 · Independent 38; won by Conservative
    5. Camrose1 seat Independent 54% chance Independent 60 · Reform UK 20 · Plaid Cymru 15 2022: Independent 77 · Labour 23; won by Independent
    6. Carew and Jeffreyston1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Independent 100; won by Independent
    7. Cilgerran and Eglwyswrw1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    8. Crymych and Mynachlog-ddu1 seat Plaid Cymru 59% chance Plaid Cymru 41 · Independent 40 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 54 · Plaid Cymru 46; won by Independent
    9. East Williamston1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    10. Fishguard: North East1 seat Conservative 68% chance Conservative 32 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 23 2022: Labour 59 · Conservative 41; won by Labour
    11. Fishguard: North West1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    12. Goodwick1 seat Independent 49% chance Independent 41 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 47 · Independent 45 · Conservative 8; won by Labour
    13. Haverfordwest: Castle1 seat Labour 80% chance Labour 36 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 78 · Conservative 22; won by Labour
    14. Haverfordwest: Garth1 seat Independent 53% chance Independent 54 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 72 · Conservative 28; won by Independent
    15. Haverfordwest: Portfield1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    16. Haverfordwest: Prendergast1 seat Conservative 98% chance Conservative 45 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Conservative 59 · Labour 41; won by Conservative
    17. Haverfordwest: Priory1 seat Conservative over 99% chance Conservative 67 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022, uncontested: Conservative
    18. Hundleton1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Independent 100; won by Independent
    19. Johnston1 seat Conservative 42% chance Conservative 26 · Reform UK 23 · Independent 23 2022: Conservative 38 · Labour 37 · Independent 25; won by Conservative
    20. Kilgetty and Begelly1 seat Lib Dem 66% chance Lib Dem 38 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 22 2022: Lib Dem 61 · Plaid Cymru 19 · Independent 18; won by Lib Dem
    21. Lampeter Velfrey1 seat Independent 52% chance Independent 50 · Reform UK 19 · Conservative 17 2022: Independent 67 · Conservative 33; won by Independent
    22. Lamphey1 seat Independent 54% chance Independent 56 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 76 · Conservative 24; won by Independent
    23. Letterston1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    24. Llangwm1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Independent 100; won by Independent
    25. Llanrhian1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Independent 100; won by Independent
    26. Maenclochog1 seat Independent 51% chance Independent 49 · Plaid Cymru 24 · Reform UK 22 2022: Independent 58 · Plaid Cymru 22 · Labour 20; won by Independent
    27. Manorbier and Penally1 seat Independent 53% chance Independent 58 · Plaid Cymru 23 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 76 · Plaid Cymru 24; won by Independent
    28. Martletwy1 seat Conservative over 99% chance Conservative 67 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022, uncontested: Conservative
    29. Merlin's Bridge1 seat Independent 54% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    30. Milford: Central1 seat Independent 45% chance Independent 39 · Conservative 28 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 52 · Conservative 48; won by Independent
    31. Milford: East1 seat Labour 97% chance Labour 50 · Reform UK 29 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022, uncontested: Labour
    32. Milford: Hakin1 seat Independent 53% chance Independent 52 · Reform UK 19 · Conservative 15 2022: Independent 70 · Conservative 30; won by Independent
    33. Milford: Hubberston1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    34. Milford: North1 seat Independent 45% chance Independent 39 · Conservative 28 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 53 · Conservative 47; won by Independent
    35. Milford: West1 seat Plaid Cymru 74% chance Plaid Cymru 58 · Independent 23 · Reform UK 19 2022: Plaid Cymru 69 · Independent 31; won by Plaid Cymru
    36. Narberth: Rural1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    37. Narberth: Urban1 seat Labour 47% chance Labour 31 · Independent 25 · Reform UK 25 2022: Labour 74 · Independent 26; won by Labour
    38. Newport and Dinas1 seat Independent 42% chance Independent 43 · Plaid Cymru 38 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 57 · Plaid Cymru 43; won by Independent
    39. Neyland: East1 seat Labour 99% chance Labour 50 · Reform UK 29 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022, uncontested: Labour
    40. Neyland: West1 seat Labour 97% chance Labour 50 · Reform UK 29 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022, uncontested: Labour
    41. Pembroke Dock: Bufferland1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Independent 100; won by Independent
    42. Pembroke Dock: Bush1 seat Independent 50% chance Independent 42 · Reform UK 23 · Labour 18 2022: Labour 53 · Independent 47; won by Labour
    43. Pembroke Dock: Central1 seat Labour 37% chance Labour 27 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 64 · Conservative 25 · Independent 10; won by Labour
    44. Pembroke Dock: Market1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    45. Pembroke Dock: Pennar1 seat Labour 98% chance Labour 50 · Reform UK 29 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022, uncontested: Labour
    46. Pembroke: Monkton and St Mary South2 seats Conservative Reform UK 34% chance Conservative 26 · Reform UK 23 · Independent 22 2022: Conservative 38 · Labour 28 · Independent 24; won by 2 Conservative
    47. Pembroke: St Mary North1 seat Independent 53% chance Independent 53 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 72 · Conservative 28; won by Independent
    48. Pembroke: St Michael1 seat Independent 46% chance Independent 39 · Conservative 28 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 53 · Conservative 47; won by Independent
    49. Rudbaxton and Spittal1 seat Conservative over 99% chance Conservative 67 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022, uncontested: Conservative
    50. Saundersfoot South1 seat Independent 54% chance Independent 61 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 84 · Conservative 16; won by Independent
    51. Solva1 seat Conservative 93% chance Conservative 39 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Conservative 51 · Labour 49; won by Conservative
    52. St David's1 seat Independent 49% chance Independent 39 · Green 23 · Reform UK 18 2022: Independent 56 · Labour 36 · Green 8; won by Independent
    53. St Dogmaels1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    54. St Florence and St Mary Out Liberty1 seat Plaid Cymru 64% chance Plaid Cymru 42 · Conservative 38 · Reform UK 21 2022: Conservative 57 · Plaid Cymru 43; won by Conservative
    55. St Ishmael's1 seat Green 63% chance Green 44 · Independent 35 · Reform UK 12 2022: Independent 74 · Green 26; won by Independent
    56. Tenby: North1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 81 · Reform UK 19 2022, uncontested: Plaid Cymru
    57. Tenby: South1 seat Independent 44% chance Independent 44 · Plaid Cymru 37 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 58 · Plaid Cymru 42; won by Independent
    58. The Havens1 seat Independent 50% chance Independent 44 · Conservative 23 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 59 · Conservative 41; won by Independent
    59. Wiston1 seat Conservative over 99% chance Conservative 67 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022, uncontested: Conservative

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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