United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Ceredigion

Ceredigion: Plaid Cymru would keep control

Ceredigion elects all 38 councillors in 34 wards on 6 May 2027; 20 make a majority. In 2022: Plaid Cymru 20, Independent 9, Lib Dem 7, Labour 1, Local groups and others 1.

The council after 6 May, our projection

Plaid Cymru +3
23 seats · 10–30 in 80% of runs · 2022: 20 Control 57%
Independent −1
8 seats · 0–22 in 80% of runs · 2022: 9 Control 27%
−4
3 seats · 1–6 in 80% of runs · 2022: 7 Control 0%
+2
2 seats · 0–3 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%
±0
1 seats · 1–1 in 80% of runs · 2022: 1 Control 0%
Local groups and others ±0
1 seats · 0–1 in 80% of runs · 2022: 1 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (20 of 38). No overall control in 17% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

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What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Ceredigion

    Ceredigion is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 38 councillors in 34 wards. It had 71,475 residents at the 2021 census. 10.5% of households rent social housing, fewer than the 17.2% nationally; 25.7% of its people are 65 or over, more than the 18.6% across England and Wales.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Plaid Cymru won 20 seats, independents 9 and the Liberal Democrats 7; 5 wards were uncontested. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model gives Plaid Cymru a majority, with 23 of 38 seats.

    Ward by ward

    1. Aberaeron and Aberarth1 seat Lib Dem 79% chance Lib Dem 49 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Lib Dem 83 · Independent 17; won by Lib Dem
    2. Aberporth and Y Ferwig2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 82% chance Plaid Cymru 55 · Independent 26 · Reform UK 19 2022: Plaid Cymru 65 · Independent 35; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    3. Aberystwyth Morfa a Glais2 seats Plaid Cymru Green 70% chance Plaid Cymru 37 · Green 32 · Reform UK 17 2022: Plaid Cymru 48 · Lib Dem 20 · Green 13; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    4. Aberystwyth Penparcau2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 83% chance Plaid Cymru 49 · Reform UK 23 · Independent 13 2022: Plaid Cymru 47 · Labour 28 · Independent 14; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    5. Aberystwyth Rheidol1 seat Plaid Cymru 67% chance Plaid Cymru 38 · Reform UK 24 · Lib Dem 16 2022: Plaid Cymru 34 · Lib Dem 26 · Labour 24; won by Plaid Cymru
    6. Beulah and Llangoedmor2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 88% chance Plaid Cymru 57 · Reform UK 21 · Independent 18 2022: Plaid Cymru 60 · Independent 21 · Labour 19; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    7. Borth1 seat Green 71% chance Green 59 · Independent 23 · Reform UK 10 2022: Independent 58 · Green 42; won by Independent
    8. Ceulan a Maesmawr1 seat Plaid Cymru 62% chance Plaid Cymru 51 · Independent 30 · Reform UK 19 2022: Plaid Cymru 60 · Independent 40; won by Plaid Cymru
    9. Ciliau Aeron1 seat Independent 53% chance Independent 49 · Plaid Cymru 32 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 65 · Plaid Cymru 35; won by Independent
    10. Faenor1 seat Plaid Cymru 79% chance Plaid Cymru 42 · Lib Dem 32 · Reform UK 23 2022: Lib Dem 51 · Plaid Cymru 40 · Labour 10; won by Lib Dem
    11. Lampeter1 seat Labour 95% chance Labour 50 · Reform UK 29 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022, uncontested: Labour
    12. Llanbadarn Fawr1 seat Plaid Cymru 99% chance Plaid Cymru 66 · Reform UK 19 · Independent 9 2022: Plaid Cymru 78 · Independent 11 · Lib Dem 11; won by Plaid Cymru
    13. Llandyfriog1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 81 · Reform UK 19 2022, uncontested: Plaid Cymru
    14. Llandysilio and Llangrannog1 seat Independent 59% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    15. Llandysul North and Troedyraur1 seat Plaid Cymru 52% chance Plaid Cymru 35 · Independent 29 · Green 20 2022: Plaid Cymru 46 · Independent 46 · Green 8; won by Plaid Cymru
    16. Llandysul South1 seat Independent 50% chance Independent 44 · Plaid Cymru 37 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 58 · Plaid Cymru 42; won by Independent
    17. Llanfarian1 seat Lib Dem 69% chance Lib Dem 43 · Plaid Cymru 35 · Reform UK 23 2022: Lib Dem 68 · Plaid Cymru 32; won by Lib Dem
    18. Llanfihangel Ystrad1 seat Plaid Cymru 54% chance Plaid Cymru 44 · Independent 37 · Reform UK 19 2022: Plaid Cymru 50 · Independent 50; won by Plaid Cymru
    19. Llangeitho1 seat Independent 59% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    20. Llangybi1 seat Plaid Cymru 66% chance Plaid Cymru 49 · Independent 23 · Reform UK 22 2022: Plaid Cymru 48 · Independent 27 · Labour 25; won by Plaid Cymru
    21. Llannarth1 seat Plaid Cymru 67% chance Plaid Cymru 54 · Independent 27 · Reform UK 19 2022: Plaid Cymru 64 · Independent 36; won by Plaid Cymru
    22. Llanrhystyd1 seat Local groups and others 50% chance Local groups and others 25 · Green 21 · Reform UK 16 2022: Local groups and others 40 · Lib Dem 27 · Independent 25; won by Local groups and others
    23. Llansanffraid1 seat Plaid Cymru 58% chance Plaid Cymru 47 · Independent 34 · Reform UK 19 2022: Plaid Cymru 54 · Independent 46; won by Plaid Cymru
    24. Llanwenog1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 51 · Plaid Cymru 29 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 68 · Plaid Cymru 32; won by Independent
    25. Lledrod1 seat Independent 49% chance Independent 41 · Plaid Cymru 39 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 55 · Plaid Cymru 45; won by Independent
    26. Melindwr1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 57 · Green 28 · Reform UK 15 2022: Plaid Cymru 87 · Green 13; won by Plaid Cymru
    27. Mwldan1 seat Plaid Cymru 55% chance Plaid Cymru 40 · Lib Dem 38 · Reform UK 22 2022: Lib Dem 62 · Plaid Cymru 38; won by Lib Dem
    28. New Quay and Llanllwchaearn1 seat Plaid Cymru 57% chance Plaid Cymru 47 · Independent 34 · Reform UK 19 2022: Plaid Cymru 54 · Independent 46; won by Plaid Cymru
    29. Penbryn1 seat Independent 59% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Independent 100; won by Independent
    30. Teifi1 seat Plaid Cymru 84% chance Plaid Cymru 43 · Lib Dem 30 · Reform UK 23 2022: Lib Dem 47 · Plaid Cymru 40 · Labour 13; won by Lib Dem
    31. Tirymynach1 seat Lib Dem over 99% chance Lib Dem 61 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022, uncontested: Lib Dem
    32. Trefeurig1 seat Plaid Cymru 56% chance Plaid Cymru 46 · Independent 35 · Reform UK 19 2022: Plaid Cymru 53 · Independent 47; won by Plaid Cymru
    33. Tregaron and Ystrad Fflur1 seat Independent 56% chance Independent 53 · Plaid Cymru 28 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 70 · Plaid Cymru 30; won by Independent
    34. Ystwyth1 seat Plaid Cymru 65% chance Plaid Cymru 42 · Lib Dem 36 · Reform UK 22 2022: Lib Dem 59 · Plaid Cymru 41; won by Lib Dem

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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