United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Torfaen

Torfaen: no party would have a majority

Torfaen (Tor-faen) elects all 40 councillors in 18 wards on 6 May 2027; 21 make a majority. In 2022: Labour 30, Independent 10.

The council after 6 May, our projection

Independent +7
17 seats · 0–21 in 80% of runs · 2022: 10 Control 31%
−19
11 seats · 2–13 in 80% of runs · 2022: 30 Control 1%
+7
7 seats · 4–27 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 25%
+4
4 seats · 1–6 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%
+1
1 seats · 0–1 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (21 of 40). No overall control in 43% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Torfaen

    Torfaen (Tor-faen) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 40 councillors in 18 wards. It had 92,276 residents at the 2021 census. 23.8% of households rent from the council or a housing association, against 17.2% nationally; 95.2% of residents are white British, more than the 74.4% across England and Wales.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Labour won 30 seats, independents 10. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model has no party with a majority: independents would be largest on 17 of 40 seats, 4 short.

    Ward by ward

    1. Abersychan3 seats Independent 2 Reform UK 36% chance Independent 41 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 46 · Labour 42 · Conservative 12; won by Independent, 2 Labour
    2. Blaenavon3 seats 2 Independent Reform UK 39% chance Independent 42 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 47 · Labour 40 · Conservative 13; won by 2 Independent, Labour
    3. Coed Eva1 seat Labour 43% chance Labour 30 · Reform UK 27 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 70 · Conservative 19 · Independent 12; won by Labour
    4. Croesyceiliog2 seats 2 Labour 55% chance Labour 30 · Reform UK 27 · Conservative 22 2022: Labour 69 · Conservative 31; won by 2 Labour
    5. Fairwater2 seats 2 Labour 49% chance Labour 29 · Reform UK 27 · Conservative 24 2022: Labour 68 · Conservative 32; won by 2 Labour
    6. Greenmeadow1 seat Independent 56% chance Independent 35 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 23 2022: Labour 63 · Independent 37; won by Labour
    7. Llanfrechfa and Ponthir1 seat Conservative 91% chance Conservative 38 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 51 · Conservative 49; won by Labour
    8. Llantarnam3 seats 2 Independent Green 55% chance Independent 31 · Green 29 · Reform UK 18 2022: Independent 44 · Labour 27 · Plaid Cymru 18; won by 3 Independent
    9. Llanyrafon1 seat Labour 47% chance Labour 28 · Reform UK 27 · Conservative 25 2022: Labour 67 · Conservative 33; won by Labour
    10. New Inn3 seats 3 Conservative 75% chance Conservative 36 · Reform UK 25 · Labour 20 2022: Labour 54 · Conservative 46; won by 3 Labour
    11. Panteg3 seats 3 Labour 58% chance Labour 34 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 75 · Conservative 25; won by 3 Labour
    12. Pontnewydd3 seats 3 Independent 53% chance Independent 29 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 22 2022: Labour 59 · Independent 31 · Lib Dem 10; won by 3 Labour
    13. Pontnewynydd and Snatchwood2 seats 2 Independent 56% chance Independent 36 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Labour 46 · Independent 39 · Conservative 15; won by 2 Labour
    14. Pontypool Fawr3 seats Independent 2 Reform UK 19% chance Independent 40 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 44 · Labour 39 · Conservative 17; won by Independent, 2 Labour
    15. St. Dials2 seats 2 Independent 59% chance Independent 47 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 54 · Labour 37 · Conservative 9; won by 2 Independent
    16. Trevethin and Penygarn2 seats 2 Labour 64% chance Labour 35 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 76 · Conservative 24; won by 2 Labour
    17. Two Locks3 seats Independent 2 Reform UK 34% chance Independent 30 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Labour 43 · Independent 33 · Conservative 13; won by 2 Labour, Independent
    18. Upper Cwmbran2 seats 2 Independent 57% chance Independent 37 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 21 2022: Labour 60 · Independent 40; won by 2 Labour

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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