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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Monmouthshire

Monmouthshire: no party would have a majority

Monmouthshire (Sir Fynwy) elects all 46 councillors in 39 wards on 6 May 2027; 24 make a majority. In 2022: Labour 22, Conservative 18, Independent 5, Green 1.

The council after 6 May, our projection

−2
16 seats · 8–23 in 80% of runs · 2022: 18 Control 9%
+10
10 seats · 2–19 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 4%
+8
9 seats · 2–14 in 80% of runs · 2022: 1 Control 0%
Independent +1
6 seats · 0–17 in 80% of runs · 2022: 5 Control 0%
−17
5 seats · 1–8 in 80% of runs · 2022: 22 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (24 of 46). No overall control in 88% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Monmouthshire

    Monmouthshire (Sir Fynwy) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 46 councillors in 39 wards. It had 92,957 residents at the 2021 census. 25.9% of its people are 65 or over, more than the 18.6% across England and Wales; 94.2% of residents are white British, more than the 74.4% across England and Wales.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Labour won 22 seats, the Conservatives 18 and independents 5. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model has no party with a majority: the Conservatives would be largest on 16 of 46 seats, 8 short.

    Ward by ward

    1. Bulwark and Thornwell2 seats Reform UK Labour 45% chance Reform UK 27 · Labour 27 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 63 · Conservative 24 · Lib Dem 12; won by 2 Labour
    2. Caerwent1 seat Conservative 81% chance Conservative 36 · Green 25 · Reform UK 18 2022: Conservative 61 · Labour 22 · Green 9; won by Conservative
    3. Caldicot Castle1 seat Reform UK 48% chance Reform UK 26 · Conservative 23 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 42 · Conservative 32 · Lib Dem 25; won by Labour
    4. Caldicot Cross1 seat Reform UK 41% chance Reform UK 25 · Independent 24 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Labour 47 · Independent 25 · Conservative 19; won by Labour
    5. Cantref1 seat Conservative 38% chance Conservative 24 · Green 22 · Reform UK 21 2022: Labour 49 · Conservative 38 · Green 7; won by Labour
    6. Chepstow Castle and Larkfield2 seats 2 Reform UK 56% chance Reform UK 26 · Lib Dem 22 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 42 · Lib Dem 30 · Conservative 28; won by 2 Labour
    7. Croesonen1 seat Labour 54% chance Labour 29 · Reform UK 27 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 66 · Conservative 26 · Lib Dem 7; won by Labour
    8. Crucorney1 seat Independent 48% chance Independent 30 · Green 29 · Reform UK 16 2022: Independent 48 · Conservative 29 · Green 12; won by Independent
    9. Devauden1 seat Conservative 55% chance Conservative 28 · Green 28 · Reform UK 18 2022: Conservative 49 · Labour 31 · Green 10; won by Conservative
    10. Dewstow1 seat Labour 63% chance Labour 28 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Labour 71 · Conservative 18 · Lib Dem 6; won by Labour
    11. Drybridge1 seat Green 48% chance Green 28 · Reform UK 19 · Independent 18 2022: Labour 36 · Conservative 29 · Independent 24; won by Labour
    12. Gobion Fawr1 seat Green 48% chance Green 29 · Conservative 29 · Reform UK 18 2022: Conservative 52 · Labour 24 · Lib Dem 12; won by Conservative
    13. Goetre Fawr1 seat Green 55% chance Green 33 · Conservative 28 · Reform UK 18 2022: Conservative 50 · Labour 38 · Green 12; won by Conservative
    14. Grofield1 seat Conservative 54% chance Conservative 30 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 24 2022: Labour 61 · Conservative 39; won by Labour
    15. Lansdown1 seat Reform UK 34% chance Reform UK 26 · Labour 26 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 63 · Conservative 21 · Independent 16; won by Labour
    16. Llanbadoc and Usk2 seats Independent Green 45% chance Independent 27 · Green 23 · Conservative 18 2022: Independent 41 · Conservative 36 · Labour 10; won by Independent, Conservative
    17. Llanelly2 seats Independent Green 44% chance Independent 24 · Green 23 · Reform UK 18 2022: Independent 33 · Labour 28 · Conservative 27; won by Independent, Labour
    18. Llanfoist Fawr and Govilon2 seats 2 Conservative 88% chance Conservative 38 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 52 · Conservative 48; won by Labour, Conservative
    19. Llangybi Fawr1 seat Conservative 41% chance Conservative 26 · Independent 24 · Reform UK 18 2022: Conservative 47 · Independent 34 · Labour 12; won by Conservative
    20. Llantilio Crossenny1 seat Green over 99% chance Green 71 · Conservative 10 · Reform UK 10 2022: Green 53 · Conservative 37 · Labour 11; won by Green
    21. Magor East with Undy2 seats Conservative Reform UK 44% chance Conservative 27 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 21 2022: Labour 55 · Conservative 37 · Lib Dem 9; won by 2 Labour
    22. Magor West1 seat Independent 58% chance Independent 59 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 77 · Labour 14 · Conservative 9; won by Independent
    23. Mardy1 seat Conservative 48% chance Conservative 29 · Reform UK 23 · Independent 18 2022: Conservative 42 · Labour 29 · Independent 20; won by Conservative
    24. Mitchel Troy and Trellech United2 seats Green Conservative 47% chance Green 40 · Conservative 17 · Reform UK 16 2022: Conservative 37 · Lib Dem 31 · Green 18; won by 2 Conservative
    25. Mount Pleasant1 seat Conservative 58% chance Conservative 30 · Lib Dem 25 · Reform UK 23 2022: Conservative 43 · Lib Dem 39 · Labour 18; won by Conservative
    26. Osbaston1 seat Green 57% chance Green 31 · Conservative 27 · Reform UK 18 2022: Conservative 49 · Labour 28 · Green 12; won by Conservative
    27. Overmonnow1 seat Reform UK 24% chance Reform UK 21 · Conservative 21 · Green 16 2022: Labour 45 · Conservative 35 · Independent 15; won by Labour
    28. Park1 seat Labour 75% chance Labour 35 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 75 · Conservative 25; won by Labour
    29. Pen Y Fal1 seat Conservative 86% chance Conservative 35 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Conservative 45 · Labour 44 · Lib Dem 11; won by Conservative
    30. Portskewett1 seat Conservative over 99% chance Conservative 46 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Conservative 61 · Labour 32 · Lib Dem 7; won by Conservative
    31. Raglan1 seat Conservative 81% chance Conservative 33 · Reform UK 23 · Lib Dem 21 2022: Conservative 47 · Lib Dem 32 · Labour 21; won by Conservative
    32. Rogiet1 seat Independent 52% chance Independent 34 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 42 · Independent 37 · Conservative 10; won by Labour
    33. Severn1 seat Reform UK 51% chance Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 19 · Lib Dem 18 2022: Labour 43 · Lib Dem 26 · Conservative 21; won by Labour
    34. Shirenewton1 seat Conservative over 99% chance Conservative 48 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Conservative 62 · Labour 38; won by Conservative
    35. St Arvans1 seat Green 52% chance Green 27 · Conservative 24 · Reform UK 18 2022: Conservative 44 · Labour 28 · Lib Dem 11; won by Conservative
    36. St Kingsmark1 seat Conservative 97% chance Conservative 42 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Conservative 56 · Labour 30 · Lib Dem 15; won by Conservative
    37. Town1 seat Reform UK 28% chance Reform UK 21 · Green 18 · Independent 16 2022: Labour 46 · Conservative 29 · Independent 19; won by Labour
    38. West End1 seat Labour 37% chance Labour 26 · Reform UK 26 · Independent 21 2022: Labour 66 · Independent 21 · Conservative 13; won by Labour
    39. Wyesham1 seat Independent 53% chance Independent 39 · Reform UK 21 · Conservative 18 2022: Independent 46 · Conservative 31 · Labour 23; won by Independent

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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