United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
Closest
United Kingdom · Votes per seat

A seat costs Green 27.3 times as many votes as Labour

United Kingdom elects its 650 seats by first past the post. On our projection, 159 seats go to a different party than a strictly proportional split of the same votes would give.

Seats against the vote

  1. Labour27.9% of the vote 326 seats; 200 in proportion (+126) 0.61 × the average votes per seat
  2. Conservative22.3% of the vote 148 seats; 160 in proportion (-12) 1.08 × the average votes per seat
  3. Lib Dem10.0% of the vote 72 seats; 72 in proportion (0) 0.99 × the average votes per seat
  4. Reform UK21.2% of the vote 35 seats; 152 in proportion (-117) 4.33 × the average votes per seat
  5. Green9.4% of the vote 4 seats; 67 in proportion (-63) 16.74 × the average votes per seat

"In proportion": each party's share of the seats if they followed its share of our projected vote exactly. What if the polls are wrong? → · The same votes under other countries' rules →