United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Caerphilly

Caerphilly: Plaid Cymru would win control

Caerphilly (Caerffili) elects all 69 councillors in 31 wards on 6 May 2027; 35 make a majority. In 2022: Labour 45, Plaid Cymru 18, Independent 6.

The council after 6 May, our projection

Plaid Cymru +26
44 seats · 37–49 in 80% of runs · 2022: 18 Control 96%
Independent +7
13 seats · 0–21 in 80% of runs · 2022: 6 Control 0%
+7
7 seats · 2–22 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control under 1%
−41
4 seats · 1–9 in 80% of runs · 2022: 45 Control 0%
+1
1 seats · 0–1 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (35 of 69). No overall control in 4% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

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What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Caerphilly

    Caerphilly (Caerffili) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 69 councillors in 31 wards. It had 175,945 residents at the 2021 census. 96.2% of residents are white British, more than the 74.4% across England and Wales; 25.3% of adults hold a degree or equivalent, below the 33.8% average.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Labour won 45 seats, Plaid Cymru 18 and independents 6. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model gives Plaid Cymru a majority, with 44 of 69 seats.

    Ward by ward

    1. Aber Valley3 seats 3 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 68 · Reform UK 23 · Labour 9 2022: Plaid Cymru 67 · Labour 33; won by 3 Plaid Cymru
    2. Aberbargoed and Bargoed3 seats 3 Plaid Cymru 87% chance Plaid Cymru 45 · Reform UK 25 · Labour 16 2022: Labour 47 · Plaid Cymru 39 · Independent 14; won by 3 Labour
    3. Abercarn2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 95% chance Plaid Cymru 49 · Reform UK 27 · Labour 25 2022: Labour 61 · Plaid Cymru 39; won by 2 Labour
    4. Argoed1 seat Reform UK 24% chance Reform UK 27 · Labour 26 · Plaid Cymru 25 2022: Labour 61 · Independent 21 · Plaid Cymru 18; won by Labour
    5. Bedwas and Trethomas3 seats Plaid Cymru 2 Reform UK 31% chance Plaid Cymru 32 · Reform UK 28 · Labour 25 2022: Labour 58 · Plaid Cymru 23 · Conservative 13; won by 3 Labour
    6. Blackwood3 seats 3 Independent 57% chance Independent 57 · Reform UK 20 · Plaid Cymru 15 2022: Independent 72 · Labour 28; won by 3 Independent
    7. Cefn Fforest and Pengam3 seats 3 Independent 50% chance Independent 31 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 19 2022: Labour 53 · Independent 33 · Conservative 14; won by 3 Labour
    8. Crosskeys1 seat Plaid Cymru 99% chance Plaid Cymru 50 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 19 2022: Labour 51 · Plaid Cymru 41 · Lib Dem 7; won by Labour
    9. Crumlin2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 93% chance Plaid Cymru 46 · Reform UK 27 · Labour 22 2022: Labour 56 · Plaid Cymru 37 · Lib Dem 7; won by 2 Labour
    10. Darran Valley1 seat Labour 80% chance Labour 42 · Reform UK 27 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 90 · Independent 10; won by Labour
    11. Gilfach1 seat Plaid Cymru 58% chance Plaid Cymru 38 · Labour 34 · Reform UK 28 2022: Labour 73 · Plaid Cymru 27; won by Labour
    12. Hengoed2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 61 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 15 2022: Plaid Cymru 55 · Labour 45; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    13. Llanbradach2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 68 · Reform UK 23 · Labour 9 2022: Plaid Cymru 66 · Labour 34; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    14. Machen and Rudry2 seats 2 Reform UK 62% chance Reform UK 27 · Lib Dem 22 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 50 · Lib Dem 29 · Conservative 20; won by 2 Labour
    15. Maesycwmmer1 seat Plaid Cymru 99% chance Plaid Cymru 49 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 24 2022: Labour 60 · Plaid Cymru 40; won by Labour
    16. Morgan Jones3 seats 2 Plaid Cymru Green 69% chance Plaid Cymru 34 · Green 28 · Reform UK 21 2022: Labour 46 · Plaid Cymru 35 · Conservative 10; won by 3 Labour
    17. Moriah and Pontlottyn2 seats Plaid Cymru Labour 40% chance Plaid Cymru 36 · Labour 35 · Reform UK 29 2022: Labour 75 · Plaid Cymru 25; won by 2 Labour
    18. Nelson2 seats Independent Plaid Cymru 45% chance Independent 28 · Plaid Cymru 28 · Reform UK 26 2022: Labour 45 · Independent 28 · Plaid Cymru 21; won by 2 Labour
    19. New Tredegar2 seats Independent Labour 40% chance Independent 30 · Labour 27 · Reform UK 25 2022: Labour 69 · Independent 31; won by 2 Labour
    20. Newbridge3 seats 3 Plaid Cymru 86% chance Plaid Cymru 51 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 16 2022: Labour 46 · Plaid Cymru 42 · Conservative 12; won by 3 Labour
    21. Penmaen2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 95% chance Plaid Cymru 45 · Labour 27 · Reform UK 27 2022: Labour 64 · Plaid Cymru 36; won by 2 Labour
    22. Penyrheol4 seats 4 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 59 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 9 2022: Plaid Cymru 54 · Labour 32 · Conservative 15; won by 4 Plaid Cymru
    23. Pontllanfraith3 seats Independent 2 Reform UK 46% chance Independent 30 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 43 · Independent 32 · Conservative 15; won by 3 Labour
    24. Risca East3 seats 3 Plaid Cymru 88% chance Plaid Cymru 46 · Reform UK 27 · Labour 27 2022: Labour 63 · Plaid Cymru 37; won by 3 Labour
    25. Risca West2 seats 2 Independent 54% chance Independent 52 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 61 · Labour 39; won by Independent, Labour
    26. St Cattwg3 seats 3 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 58 · Reform UK 25 · Labour 17 2022: Plaid Cymru 52 · Labour 48; won by 2 Plaid Cymru, Labour
    27. St Martins3 seats 3 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 54 · Reform UK 25 · Labour 10 2022: Plaid Cymru 48 · Labour 35 · Conservative 17; won by 3 Plaid Cymru
    28. Twyn Carno1 seat Labour 56% chance Labour 35 · Reform UK 26 · Independent 20 2022: Labour 80 · Independent 20; won by Labour
    29. Van2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 54 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 21 2022: Labour 55 · Plaid Cymru 45; won by 2 Labour
    30. Ynysddu2 seats 2 Independent 59% chance Independent 63 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 85 · Labour 15; won by 2 Independent
    31. Ystrad Mynach2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 64 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 12 2022: Plaid Cymru 60 · Labour 40; won by 2 Plaid Cymru

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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