United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Vale of Glamorgan

Vale of Glamorgan: no party would have a majority

Vale of Glamorgan (Bro Morgannwg) elects all 54 councillors in 24 wards on 6 May 2027; 28 make a majority. In 2022: Labour 25, Conservative 13, Plaid Cymru 8, Local groups and others 4, Independent 4.

The council after 6 May, our projection

+14
14 seats · 4–23 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 3%
Plaid Cymru +3
11 seats · 8–15 in 80% of runs · 2022: 8 Control 0%
+11
11 seats · 3–15 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%
−5
8 seats · 3–15 in 80% of runs · 2022: 13 Control 0%
Independent ±0
4 seats · 0–11 in 80% of runs · 2022: 4 Control 0%
Local groups and others ±0
4 seats · 0–5 in 80% of runs · 2022: 4 Control 0%
−23
2 seats · 0–5 in 80% of runs · 2022: 25 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (28 of 54). No overall control in 97% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

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What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Vale of Glamorgan

    Vale of Glamorgan (Bro Morgannwg) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 54 councillors in 24 wards. It had 131,941 residents at the 2021 census. 12.2% of households rent social housing, fewer than the 17.2% nationally; 92% of residents are white British, more than the 74.4% across England and Wales.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Labour won 25 seats, the Conservatives 13 and Plaid Cymru 8. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model has no party with a majority: Reform UK would be largest on 14 of 54 seats, 14 short.

    Ward by ward

    1. Baruc3 seats 2 Green Plaid Cymru 66% chance Green 43 · Plaid Cymru 28 · Reform UK 16 2022: Plaid Cymru 36 · Labour 25 · Conservative 20; won by 3 Plaid Cymru
    2. Buttrills2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 91% chance Plaid Cymru 39 · Green 23 · Reform UK 21 2022: Plaid Cymru 39 · Labour 39 · Conservative 14; won by Plaid Cymru, Labour
    3. Cadoc4 seats Green 2 Reform UK Conservative 18% chance Green 30 · Reform UK 21 · Conservative 20 2022: Labour 43 · Conservative 34 · Plaid Cymru 14; won by 4 Labour
    4. Castleland2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 92% chance Plaid Cymru 39 · Green 23 · Reform UK 21 2022: Labour 44 · Plaid Cymru 39 · Conservative 10; won by Labour, Plaid Cymru
    5. Cornerswell2 seats 2 Reform UK 54% chance Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 25 · Labour 20 2022: Labour 50 · Conservative 21 · Plaid Cymru 17; won by 2 Labour
    6. Court2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 83% chance Plaid Cymru 33 · Green 24 · Reform UK 22 2022: Labour 48 · Plaid Cymru 32 · Conservative 13; won by 2 Labour
    7. Cowbridge3 seats Reform UK 2 Conservative 16% chance Reform UK 28 · Conservative 25 · Independent 21 2022: Conservative 38 · Labour 32 · Independent 23; won by 3 Conservative
    8. Dinas Powys4 seats 4 Plaid Cymru 90% chance Plaid Cymru 43 · Reform UK 24 · Conservative 21 2022: Plaid Cymru 39 · Conservative 32 · Labour 21; won by 3 Plaid Cymru, Conservative
    9. Dyfan2 seats 2 Conservative 49% chance Conservative 25 · Reform UK 24 · Green 22 2022: Labour 47 · Conservative 37 · Plaid Cymru 10; won by 2 Labour
    10. Gibbonsdown2 seats Green Reform UK 22% chance Green 24 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 23 2022: Labour 61 · Conservative 17 · Plaid Cymru 11; won by 2 Labour
    11. Illtyd3 seats 2 Green Reform UK 45% chance Green 36 · Reform UK 20 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 40 · Conservative 29 · Plaid Cymru 18; won by 2 Labour, Conservative
    12. Llandough1 seat Conservative over 99% chance Conservative 54 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Conservative 73 · Labour 27; won by Conservative
    13. Llandow1 seat Conservative 96% chance Conservative 45 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Conservative 56 · Labour 31 · Plaid Cymru 14; won by Conservative
    14. Llantwit Major4 seats 4 Local groups and others 56% chance Local groups and others 36 · Green 21 · Reform UK 20 2022: Local groups and others 47 · Labour 21 · Conservative 19; won by 4 Local groups and others
    15. Peterston-super-Ely1 seat Independent 59% chance Independent 48 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 59 · Conservative 22 · Labour 19; won by Independent
    16. Plymouth2 seats 2 Reform UK 40% chance Reform UK 26 · Conservative 20 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Conservative 30 · Labour 27 · Independent 17; won by 2 Conservative
    17. Rhoose3 seats Green 2 Reform UK 29% chance Green 32 · Reform UK 18 · Independent 16 2022: Conservative 23 · Independent 23 · Labour 18; won by 2 Conservative, Independent
    18. St Athan2 seats Independent Reform UK 27% chance Independent 29 · Reform UK 23 · Conservative 22 2022: Conservative 34 · Labour 33 · Independent 33; won by Conservative, Labour
    19. St Augustine's3 seats 3 Green 83% chance Green 47 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Labour 44 · Conservative 24 · Green 18; won by 3 Labour
    20. St Bride's Major2 seats Green Reform UK 48% chance Green 48 · Reform UK 18 · Conservative 16 2022: Labour 39 · Conservative 33 · Green 19; won by 2 Labour
    21. St Nicholas and Llancarfan1 seat Independent 56% chance Independent 40 · Conservative 27 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 53 · Conservative 47; won by Independent
    22. Stanwell2 seats 2 Labour 71% chance Labour 34 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 75 · Conservative 25; won by 2 Labour
    23. Sully2 seats Independent Reform UK 29% chance Independent 42 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 49 · Labour 26 · Conservative 25; won by Independent, Labour
    24. Wenvoe1 seat Conservative 98% chance Conservative 46 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Conservative 59 · Labour 41; won by Conservative

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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