United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Swansea

Swansea: no party would have a majority

Swansea (Abertawe) elects all 75 councillors in 32 wards on 6 May 2027; 38 make a majority. In 2022: Labour 45, Lib Dem 11, Conservative 7, Independent 7, Local groups and others 4, Green 1.

The council after 6 May, our projection

+25
25 seats · 12–43 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 21%
−34
11 seats · 5–25 in 80% of runs · 2022: 45 Control 1%
+9
10 seats · 4–11 in 80% of runs · 2022: 1 Control 0%
Independent +2
9 seats · 0–12 in 80% of runs · 2022: 7 Control 0%
−3
8 seats · 2–11 in 80% of runs · 2022: 11 Control 0%
−2
5 seats · 2–7 in 80% of runs · 2022: 7 Control 0%
Local groups and others ±0
4 seats · 0–6 in 80% of runs · 2022: 4 Control 0%
Plaid Cymru +3
3 seats · 1–11 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (38 of 75). No overall control in 79% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Swansea

    Swansea (Abertawe) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 75 councillors in 32 wards. It had 238,490 residents at the 2021 census. 87.5% of residents are white British, more than the 74.4% across England and Wales; 14% are in their twenties.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Labour won 45 seats, the Liberal Democrats 11 and the Conservatives 7. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model has no party with a majority: Reform UK would be largest on 25 of 75 seats, 13 short.

    Ward by ward

    1. Bishopston1 seat Conservative 99% chance Conservative 41 · Reform UK 20 · Plaid Cymru 15 2022: Conservative 62 · Labour 30 · Green 4; won by Conservative
    2. Bôn-y-maen2 seats 2 Labour 66% chance Labour 34 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 77 · Independent 14 · Conservative 9; won by 2 Labour
    3. Castle4 seats Green 3 Reform UK 21% chance Green 33 · Reform UK 20 · Plaid Cymru 15 2022: Labour 48 · Plaid Cymru 13 · Green 11; won by 4 Labour
    4. Clydach3 seats 2 Independent Reform UK 35% chance Independent 43 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 50 · Conservative 25 · Labour 25; won by 2 Independent, Conservative
    5. Cockett3 seats Green 2 Reform UK 31% chance Green 38 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Labour 51 · Green 15 · Lib Dem 14; won by 3 Labour
    6. Cwmbwrla3 seats 3 Lib Dem 86% chance Lib Dem 38 · Reform UK 21 · Green 16 2022: Lib Dem 66 · Labour 24 · Green 5; won by 3 Lib Dem
    7. Dunvant and Killay3 seats Green 2 Lib Dem 23% chance Green 31 · Lib Dem 23 · Reform UK 22 2022: Lib Dem 38 · Labour 35 · Green 10; won by 2 Lib Dem, Labour
    8. Fairwood1 seat Conservative 64% chance Conservative 32 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 25 2022: Conservative 41 · Labour 32 · Plaid Cymru 18; won by Conservative
    9. Gorseinon and Penyrheol3 seats Green 2 Reform UK 30% chance Green 37 · Reform UK 19 · Labour 18 2022: Labour 62 · Conservative 15 · Green 13; won by 3 Labour
    10. Gower1 seat Conservative 71% chance Conservative 33 · Green 26 · Reform UK 18 2022: Conservative 56 · Labour 26 · Green 10; won by Conservative
    11. Gowerton2 seats Independent Reform UK 26% chance Independent 37 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 39 · Labour 23 · Lib Dem 15; won by Independent, Labour
    12. Landore2 seats 2 Labour 77% chance Labour 35 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 77 · Lib Dem 13 · Conservative 11; won by 2 Labour
    13. Llangyfelach1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 59 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 8 2022: Independent 66 · Labour 23 · Conservative 7; won by Independent
    14. Llansamlet4 seats Plaid Cymru 3 Reform UK 16% chance Plaid Cymru 30 · Reform UK 29 · Labour 24 2022: Labour 55 · Plaid Cymru 21 · Conservative 13; won by 4 Labour
    15. Llwchwr3 seats 2 Reform UK Plaid Cymru 45% chance Reform UK 29 · Plaid Cymru 29 · Labour 27 2022: Labour 61 · Plaid Cymru 19 · Conservative 16; won by 3 Labour
    16. Mayals1 seat Green over 99% chance Green 66 · Reform UK 12 · Conservative 9 2022: Green 40 · Conservative 29 · Labour 25; won by Green
    17. Morriston5 seats 4 Reform UK Labour 48% chance Reform UK 26 · Labour 24 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 61 · Conservative 15 · Independent 12; won by 5 Labour
    18. Mumbles3 seats Green 2 Conservative 29% chance Green 37 · Conservative 24 · Reform UK 19 2022: Conservative 42 · Labour 29 · Green 13; won by 3 Conservative
    19. Mynydd-bach3 seats Labour 2 Reform UK 44% chance Labour 28 · Reform UK 27 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 65 · Conservative 20 · Lib Dem 15; won by 3 Labour
    20. Pen-clawdd1 seat Plaid Cymru 59% chance Plaid Cymru 33 · Reform UK 29 · Labour 27 2022: Labour 61 · Plaid Cymru 23 · Conservative 10; won by Labour
    21. Penderry3 seats 3 Labour 81% chance Labour 37 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 79 · Conservative 21; won by 3 Labour
    22. Penllergaer1 seat Independent 56% chance Independent 65 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 88 · Labour 12; won by Independent
    23. Pennard1 seat Independent 52% chance Independent 42 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 50 · Conservative 26 · Labour 24; won by Independent
    24. Pontarddulais2 seats 2 Independent 51% chance Independent 45 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Independent 48 · Labour 35 · Plaid Cymru 16; won by Independent, Labour
    25. Pontlliw and Tircoed1 seat Independent 52% chance Independent 43 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 51 · Independent 49; won by Labour
    26. Sketty5 seats Green 2 Lib Dem 2 Reform UK 16% chance Green 33 · Lib Dem 22 · Reform UK 21 2022: Lib Dem 38 · Labour 30 · Conservative 12; won by 5 Lib Dem
    27. St Thomas2 seats 2 Labour 68% chance Labour 32 · Reform UK 27 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 73 · Lib Dem 12 · Conservative 11; won by 2 Labour
    28. Townhill3 seats Green 2 Reform UK 27% chance Green 31 · Reform UK 19 · Labour 18 2022: Labour 61 · Green 11 · Lib Dem 9; won by 3 Labour
    29. Uplands4 seats 4 Local groups and others 53% chance Local groups and others 50 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Local groups and others 53 · Labour 34 · Plaid Cymru 9; won by 4 Local groups and others
    30. Waterfront1 seat Lib Dem 90% chance Lib Dem 42 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Lib Dem 60 · Labour 32 · Conservative 8; won by Lib Dem
    31. Waunarlwydd1 seat Green 96% chance Green 50 · Labour 18 · Reform UK 16 2022: Labour 68 · Green 22 · Conservative 8; won by Labour
    32. West Cross2 seats Green Reform UK 40% chance Green 33 · Reform UK 19 · Conservative 17 2022: Labour 56 · Conservative 32 · Green 12; won by 2 Labour

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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