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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Flintshire

Flintshire: independents would keep a majority between them

Flintshire (Sir y Fflint) elects all 67 councillors in 45 wards on 6 May 2027; 34 make a majority. In 2022: Labour 31, Independent 30, Lib Dem 4, Conservative 2.

The council after 6 May, our projection

Independent +18
48 seats · 0–61 in 80% of runs · 2022: 30 Control 55%
+8
8 seats · 2–50 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 35%
−25
6 seats · 0–13 in 80% of runs · 2022: 31 Control 0%
+4
4 seats · 0–6 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%
−3
1 seats · 0–3 in 80% of runs · 2022: 4 Control 0%
−2
0 seats · 0–1 in 80% of runs · 2022: 2 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (34 of 67). No overall control in 9% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Flintshire

    Flintshire (Sir y Fflint) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 67 councillors in 45 wards. It had 154,962 residents at the 2021 census. 93.2% of residents are white British, more than the 74.4% across England and Wales; 71.8% of households own their home, against 61.3% nationally.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Labour won 31 seats, independents 30 and the Liberal Democrats 4; 2 wards were uncontested. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model gives independents a majority, with 48 of 67 seats.

    Ward by ward

    1. Argoed and New Brighton2 seats Green Reform UK 37% chance Green 30 · Reform UK 19 · Lib Dem 19 2022: Lib Dem 36 · Labour 25 · Plaid Cymru 15; won by 2 Lib Dem
    2. Bagillt2 seats Independent Green 28% chance Independent 37 · Green 23 · Reform UK 18 2022: Independent 52 · Labour 39 · Green 8; won by Independent, Labour
    3. Broughton North East1 seat Reform UK 27% chance Reform UK 25 · Labour 25 · Independent 22 2022: Labour 64 · Independent 22 · Conservative 14; won by Labour
    4. Broughton South2 seats Independent Reform UK 50% chance Independent 40 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 44 · Labour 40 · Conservative 16; won by Independent, Labour
    5. Brynford and Halkyn2 seats Independent Reform UK 25% chance Independent 28 · Reform UK 24 · Conservative 19 2022: Labour 40 · Conservative 30 · Independent 30; won by Labour, Conservative
    6. Buckley: Bistre East2 seats 2 Independent 57% chance Independent 56 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 68 · Labour 32; won by 2 Independent
    7. Buckley: Bistre West2 seats Independent Reform UK 28% chance Independent 43 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 52 · Independent 48; won by 2 Labour
    8. Buckley: Mountain1 seat Independent 57% chance Independent 57 · Reform UK 20 · Plaid Cymru 15 2022: Independent 71 · Labour 29; won by Independent
    9. Buckley: Pentrobin2 seats 2 Independent 57% chance Independent 55 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 67 · Labour 33; won by 2 Independent
    10. Caergwrle1 seat Labour 46% chance Labour 32 · Reform UK 25 · Independent 23 2022: Labour 77 · Independent 23; won by Labour
    11. Caerwys1 seat Independent 58% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    12. Cilcain1 seat Lib Dem 56% chance Lib Dem 37 · Independent 22 · Reform UK 22 2022: Lib Dem 61 · Independent 26 · Labour 13; won by Lib Dem
    13. Connah's Quay Central2 seats 2 Independent 57% chance Independent 55 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 66 · Labour 34; won by 2 Independent
    14. Connah's Quay South2 seats 2 Independent 55% chance Independent 43 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 48 · Labour 41 · Lib Dem 11; won by 2 Independent
    15. Connah's Quay: Golftyn2 seats 2 Independent 57% chance Independent 53 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 62 · Labour 33 · Reform UK 5; won by 2 Independent
    16. Connah's Quay: Wepre1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 37 · Reform UK 20 · Plaid Cymru 15 2022: Independent 46 · Labour 43 · Lib Dem 6; won by Independent
    17. Flint: Castle1 seat Labour 27% chance Labour 24 · Independent 22 · Reform UK 21 2022: Labour 69 · Independent 26 · Green 5; won by Labour
    18. Flint: Coleshill and Trelawny3 seats 2 Independent Reform UK 34% chance Independent 28 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Labour 49 · Independent 29 · Conservative 22; won by 3 Labour
    19. Flint: Oakenholt1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 40 · Reform UK 23 · Labour 19 2022: Labour 56 · Independent 44; won by Labour
    20. Greenfield1 seat Independent 57% chance Independent 50 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 15 2022: Independent 62 · Conservative 20 · Labour 18; won by Independent
    21. Gwernaffield and Gwernymynydd2 seats Green Reform UK 36% chance Green 26 · Reform UK 19 · Lib Dem 15 2022: Lib Dem 30 · Conservative 25 · Labour 23; won by Lib Dem, Conservative
    22. Hawarden: Aston2 seats 2 Independent 55% chance Independent 44 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 51 · Independent 49; won by Labour, Independent
    23. Hawarden: Ewloe2 seats Independent Reform UK 50% chance Independent 36 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 41 · Labour 25 · Conservative 23; won by Independent, Labour
    24. Hawarden: Mancot2 seats 2 Independent 53% chance Independent 44 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 51 · Independent 49; won by Labour, Independent
    25. Higher Kinnerton1 seat Independent 58% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    26. Holywell Central1 seat Independent 56% chance Independent 44 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 50 · Independent 50; won by Labour
    27. Holywell East1 seat Independent 56% chance Independent 40 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 45 · Labour 35 · Conservative 11; won by Independent
    28. Holywell West1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 40 · Reform UK 23 · Labour 19 2022: Labour 56 · Independent 44; won by Labour
    29. Hope1 seat Labour 43% chance Labour 31 · Reform UK 25 · Independent 25 2022: Labour 75 · Independent 25; won by Labour
    30. Leeswood1 seat Labour 36% chance Labour 28 · Independent 28 · Reform UK 25 2022: Labour 71 · Independent 29; won by Labour
    31. Llanasa and Trelawnyd2 seats Green Independent 31% chance Green 34 · Independent 22 · Reform UK 17 2022: Independent 33 · Labour 28 · Conservative 25; won by Independent, Labour
    32. Llanfynydd1 seat Independent 53% chance Independent 33 · Labour 25 · Reform UK 24 2022: Labour 66 · Independent 34; won by Labour
    33. Mold East1 seat Labour 35% chance Labour 29 · Independent 27 · Reform UK 25 2022: Labour 72 · Independent 28; won by Labour
    34. Mold South1 seat Independent 53% chance Independent 31 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 15 2022: Labour 40 · Independent 35 · Plaid Cymru 11; won by Labour
    35. Mold West1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 34 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Labour 49 · Independent 37 · Lib Dem 14; won by Labour
    36. Mold: Broncoed1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 39 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 48 · Independent 42 · Conservative 10; won by Labour
    37. Mostyn1 seat Independent 53% chance Independent 39 · Green 25 · Reform UK 15 2022: Independent 64 · Lib Dem 13 · Conservative 12; won by Independent
    38. Northop2 seats 2 Independent 55% chance Independent 40 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 45 · Labour 36 · Lib Dem 19; won by 2 Independent
    39. Pen-y-ffordd2 seats 2 Independent 55% chance Independent 45 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 51 · Labour 49; won by Independent, Labour
    40. Queensferry and Sealand2 seats 2 Independent 53% chance Independent 36 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 44 · Independent 40 · Conservative 11; won by Labour, Independent
    41. Saltney Ferry2 seats 2 Independent 52% chance Independent 34 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 19 2022: Labour 53 · Independent 37 · Conservative 10; won by Labour, Independent
    42. Shotton East and Shotton Higher2 seats 2 Independent 54% chance Independent 42 · Reform UK 23 · Labour 18 2022: Labour 53 · Independent 47; won by 2 Labour
    43. Shotton West1 seat Labour 45% chance Labour 32 · Reform UK 25 · Independent 23 2022: Labour 77 · Independent 23; won by Labour
    44. Treuddyn1 seat Independent 56% chance Independent 46 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 53 · Labour 47; won by Independent
    45. Whitford1 seat Independent 58% chance Independent 61 · Reform UK 20 · Plaid Cymru 15 2022: Independent 78 · Labour 22; won by Independent

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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