United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Powys

Powys: no party would have a majority

Powys elects all 68 councillors in 60 wards on 6 May 2027; 35 make a majority. In 2022: Lib Dem 24, Independent 17, Conservative 14, Labour 9, Plaid Cymru 3, Green 1.

The council after 6 May, our projection

Independent +8
25 seats · 0–41 in 80% of runs · 2022: 17 Control 37%
−10
14 seats · 5–28 in 80% of runs · 2022: 24 Control 0%
−3
11 seats · 8–17 in 80% of runs · 2022: 14 Control 0%
+6
6 seats · 1–21 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 2%
−4
5 seats · 2–6 in 80% of runs · 2022: 9 Control 0%
Plaid Cymru +1
4 seats · 1–11 in 80% of runs · 2022: 3 Control under 1%
+2
3 seats · 2–6 in 80% of runs · 2022: 1 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (35 of 68). No overall control in 61% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

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What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Powys

    Powys is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 68 councillors in 60 wards. It had 133,168 residents at the 2021 census. 27.9% of its people are 65 or over, more than the 18.6% across England and Wales; 94.9% of residents are white British, more than the 74.4% across England and Wales.

    At the last election, in May 2022, the Liberal Democrats won 24 seats, independents 17 and the Conservatives 14; 7 wards were uncontested. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model has no party with a majority: independents would be largest on 25 of 68 seats, 10 short.

    Ward by ward

    1. Aber-craf and Ystradgynlais2 seats 2 Reform UK 44% chance Reform UK 27 · Plaid Cymru 25 · Independent 22 2022: Labour 53 · Independent 21 · Plaid Cymru 18; won by 2 Labour
    2. Banwy, Llanfihangel and Llanwddyn1 seat Plaid Cymru 60% chance Plaid Cymru 49 · Independent 32 · Reform UK 19 2022: Plaid Cymru 58 · Independent 42; won by Plaid Cymru
    3. Berriew and Castle Caereinion1 seat Independent 50% chance Independent 26 · Conservative 25 · Reform UK 20 2022: Conservative 42 · Independent 33 · Lib Dem 25; won by Conservative
    4. Brecon East2 seats 2 Reform UK 44% chance Reform UK 26 · Labour 20 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 54 · Conservative 22 · Independent 15; won by 2 Labour
    5. Brecon West2 seats 2 Labour 45% chance Labour 32 · Reform UK 26 · Independent 23 2022: Labour 77 · Independent 23; won by 2 Labour
    6. Bronllys and Felin-fach1 seat Independent 53% chance Independent 30 · Lib Dem 23 · Reform UK 21 2022: Lib Dem 41 · Independent 37 · Conservative 22; won by Lib Dem
    7. Builth1 seat Independent 54% chance Independent 34 · Green 25 · Reform UK 16 2022: Independent 54 · Conservative 18 · Lib Dem 16; won by Independent
    8. Caersws1 seat Green 96% chance Green 54 · Conservative 26 · Reform UK 12 2022: Conservative 67 · Green 33; won by Conservative
    9. Churchstoke1 seat Lib Dem 50% chance Lib Dem 29 · Conservative 22 · Reform UK 21 2022: Lib Dem 49 · Conservative 36 · Independent 15; won by Lib Dem
    10. Crickhowell with Cwmdu and Tretower2 seats 2 Lib Dem 73% chance Lib Dem 36 · Conservative 27 · Reform UK 22 2022: Lib Dem 59 · Conservative 41; won by 2 Lib Dem
    11. Cwm-twrch1 seat Labour 86% chance Labour 39 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 82 · Conservative 18; won by Labour
    12. Disserth and Trecoed with Newbridge1 seat Green 86% chance Green 36 · Lib Dem 19 · Reform UK 15 2022: Lib Dem 44 · Conservative 32 · Green 16; won by Lib Dem
    13. Dolforwyn1 seat Conservative 96% chance Conservative 42 · Lib Dem 21 · Reform UK 21 2022: Conservative 63 · Lib Dem 37; won by Conservative
    14. Forden and Montgomery1 seat Green 83% chance Green 58 · Independent 15 · Reform UK 11 2022: Green 37 · Independent 35 · Conservative 27; won by Green
    15. Glantwymyn1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 81 · Reform UK 19 2022, uncontested: Plaid Cymru
    16. Glasbury1 seat Lib Dem 85% chance Lib Dem 40 · Reform UK 22 · Conservative 22 2022: Lib Dem 65 · Conservative 35; won by Lib Dem
    17. Guilsfield1 seat Conservative over 99% chance Conservative 49 · Reform UK 20 · Lib Dem 16 2022: Conservative 72 · Lib Dem 28; won by Conservative
    18. Gwernyfed1 seat Lib Dem 91% chance Lib Dem 43 · Reform UK 22 · Conservative 18 2022: Lib Dem 69 · Conservative 31; won by Lib Dem
    19. Hay1 seat Lib Dem over 99% chance Lib Dem 61 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022, uncontested: Lib Dem
    20. Ithon Valley1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 38 · Conservative 20 · Reform UK 20 2022: Independent 49 · Conservative 36 · Lib Dem 15; won by Independent
    21. Kerry1 seat Independent 52% chance Independent 35 · Conservative 32 · Reform UK 19 2022: Conservative 53 · Independent 47; won by Conservative
    22. Knighton with Beguildy2 seats 2 Independent 53% chance Independent 27 · Lib Dem 22 · Reform UK 21 2022: Lib Dem 38 · Independent 33 · Conservative 29; won by Lib Dem, Independent
    23. Llanafanfawr with Garth1 seat Independent 58% chance Independent 44 · Lib Dem 22 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 58 · Lib Dem 42; won by Independent
    24. Llanbrynmair1 seat Plaid Cymru 57% chance Plaid Cymru 36 · Independent 25 · Reform UK 21 2022: Plaid Cymru 37 · Conservative 33 · Independent 30; won by Plaid Cymru
    25. Llandinam with Dolfor1 seat Conservative over 99% chance Conservative 67 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022, uncontested: Conservative
    26. Llandrindod North1 seat Lib Dem 58% chance Lib Dem 35 · Independent 19 · Reform UK 18 2022: Lib Dem 69 · Independent 27 · Green 4; won by Lib Dem
    27. Llandrindod South2 seats Lib Dem Independent 55% chance Lib Dem 28 · Independent 26 · Reform UK 21 2022: Lib Dem 48 · Independent 32 · Conservative 19; won by 2 Lib Dem
    28. Llandrinio1 seat Conservative 68% chance Conservative 46 · Independent 21 · Reform UK 19 2022: Conservative 72 · Independent 28; won by Conservative
    29. Llandysilio1 seat Independent 62% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Independent 100; won by Independent
    30. Llanelwedd1 seat Independent 61% chance Independent 53 · Reform UK 19 · Lib Dem 15 2022: Independent 72 · Lib Dem 28; won by Independent
    31. Llanfair Caereinion and Llanerfyl1 seat Independent 60% chance Independent 61 · Reform UK 20 · Plaid Cymru 15 2022: Independent 79 · Labour 21; won by Independent
    32. Llanfyllin1 seat Conservative 60% chance Conservative 32 · Lib Dem 27 · Reform UK 23 2022: Conservative 45 · Lib Dem 41 · Plaid Cymru 14; won by Conservative
    33. Llangattock and Llangynidr1 seat Independent 53% chance Independent 36 · Lib Dem 30 · Reform UK 20 2022: Lib Dem 54 · Independent 46; won by Lib Dem
    34. Llangors with Bwlch1 seat Independent 50% chance Independent 27 · Lib Dem 24 · Reform UK 21 2022: Lib Dem 41 · Independent 34 · Conservative 25; won by Lib Dem
    35. Llangunllo with Norton1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 36 · Lib Dem 21 · Reform UK 20 2022: Independent 45 · Lib Dem 38 · Conservative 17; won by Independent
    36. Llangyniew and Meifod1 seat Conservative 89% chance Conservative 41 · Plaid Cymru 26 · Reform UK 23 2022: Conservative 55 · Plaid Cymru 22 · Labour 19; won by Conservative
    37. Llanidloes2 seats Independent Reform UK 24% chance Independent 21 · Reform UK 21 · Lib Dem 18 2022: Lib Dem 31 · Independent 26 · Conservative 16; won by 2 Lib Dem
    38. Llanrhaeadr-ym-Mochnant and Llansilin1 seat Conservative over 99% chance Conservative 67 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022, uncontested: Conservative
    39. Llansantffraid1 seat Conservative over 99% chance Conservative 67 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022, uncontested: Conservative
    40. Llanwrtyd Wells1 seat Independent 57% chance Independent 44 · Lib Dem 23 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 58 · Lib Dem 42; won by Independent
    41. Llanyre with Nantmel1 seat Independent 57% chance Independent 41 · Lib Dem 25 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 54 · Lib Dem 46; won by Independent
    42. Machynlleth1 seat Independent 50% chance Independent 42 · Plaid Cymru 39 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 56 · Plaid Cymru 44; won by Independent
    43. Maescar and Llywel1 seat Independent 60% chance Independent 54 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 71 · Lib Dem 19 · Labour 11; won by Independent
    44. Newtown Central and South2 seats 2 Lib Dem 64% chance Lib Dem 33 · Reform UK 21 · Independent 18 2022: Lib Dem 55 · Conservative 24 · Independent 21; won by 2 Lib Dem
    45. Newtown East1 seat Independent 62% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    46. Newtown North1 seat Conservative 29% chance Conservative 25 · Lib Dem 23 · Reform UK 21 2022: Lib Dem 40 · Conservative 40 · Independent 19; won by Lib Dem
    47. Newtown West1 seat Reform UK 21% chance Reform UK 22 · Independent 21 · Conservative 21 2022: Conservative 34 · Independent 24 · Lib Dem 24; won by Conservative
    48. Old Radnor1 seat Independent 56% chance Independent 35 · Lib Dem 21 · Reform UK 20 2022: Independent 43 · Lib Dem 38 · Conservative 18; won by Independent
    49. Presteigne1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 41 · Green 29 · Reform UK 14 2022: Independent 72 · Lib Dem 14 · Green 14; won by Independent
    50. Rhayader1 seat Lib Dem 93% chance Lib Dem 53 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Lib Dem 89 · Local groups and others 11; won by Lib Dem
    51. Rhiwcynon1 seat Plaid Cymru 54% chance Plaid Cymru 42 · Independent 37 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 49 · Plaid Cymru 49 · Local groups and others 2; won by Independent
    52. Talgarth1 seat Lib Dem 94% chance Lib Dem 46 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Lib Dem 74 · Conservative 26; won by Lib Dem
    53. Talybont-on-Usk1 seat Independent 50% chance Independent 27 · Reform UK 21 · Lib Dem 20 2022: Lib Dem 36 · Independent 33 · Conservative 31; won by Lib Dem
    54. Tawe Uchaf1 seat Labour 79% chance Labour 37 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 79 · Conservative 21; won by Labour
    55. Trelystan and Trewern1 seat Conservative 99% chance Conservative 45 · Reform UK 21 · Lib Dem 19 2022: Conservative 66 · Lib Dem 34; won by Conservative
    56. Welshpool Castle1 seat Lib Dem 43% chance Lib Dem 29 · Reform UK 22 · Independent 21 2022: Lib Dem 48 · Independent 24 · Labour 15; won by Lib Dem
    57. Welshpool Gungrog1 seat Lib Dem 50% chance Lib Dem 30 · Plaid Cymru 26 · Reform UK 23 2022: Lib Dem 46 · Conservative 32 · Plaid Cymru 22; won by Lib Dem
    58. Welshpool Llanerchyddol1 seat Independent 62% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    59. Ynyscedwyn1 seat Labour 88% chance Labour 40 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 84 · Conservative 16; won by Labour
    60. Yscir with Honddu Isaf and Llanddew1 seat Conservative 93% chance Conservative 40 · Lib Dem 23 · Reform UK 21 2022: Conservative 59 · Lib Dem 41; won by Conservative

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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