United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Neath Port Talbot

Neath Port Talbot: no party would have a majority

Neath Port Talbot (Castell-nedd Port Talbot) elects all 60 councillors in 34 wards on 6 May 2027; 31 make a majority. In 2022: Labour 27, Independent 18, Plaid Cymru 12, Lib Dem 2, Green 1.

The council after 6 May, our projection

Plaid Cymru +11
23 seats · 19–33 in 80% of runs · 2022: 12 Control 14%
Independent +4
22 seats · 0–27 in 80% of runs · 2022: 18 Control 0%
+6
6 seats · 2–26 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 2%
+3
4 seats · 3–5 in 80% of runs · 2022: 1 Control 0%
−24
3 seats · 2–8 in 80% of runs · 2022: 27 Control 0%
±0
2 seats · 1–2 in 80% of runs · 2022: 2 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (31 of 60). No overall control in 85% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

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What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Neath Port Talbot

    Neath Port Talbot (Castell-nedd Port Talbot) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 60 councillors in 34 wards. It had 142,290 residents at the 2021 census. 95% of residents are white British, more than the 74.4% across England and Wales; 25.8% of adults hold a degree or equivalent, below the 33.8% average.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Labour won 27 seats, independents 18 and Plaid Cymru 12; 2 wards were uncontested. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model has no party with a majority: Plaid Cymru would be largest on 23 of 60 seats, 8 short.

    Ward by ward

    1. Aberavon2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 89% chance Plaid Cymru 45 · Reform UK 25 · Independent 14 2022: Labour 40 · Plaid Cymru 39 · Independent 14; won by Labour, Plaid Cymru
    2. Aberdulais1 seat Independent 53% chance Independent 47 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Independent 50 · Labour 36 · Plaid Cymru 14; won by Independent
    3. Allt-wen1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 60 · Reform UK 25 · Labour 16 2022: Plaid Cymru 54 · Labour 46; won by Plaid Cymru
    4. Baglan3 seats Independent 2 Reform UK 16% chance Independent 29 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 19 2022: Labour 54 · Independent 31 · Conservative 15; won by 3 Labour
    5. Blaengwrach and Glynneath West1 seat Independent 51% chance Independent 44 · Plaid Cymru 33 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 59 · Plaid Cymru 37 · Local groups and others 4; won by Independent
    6. Briton Ferry East1 seat Independent 52% chance Independent 44 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 45 · Labour 44 · Plaid Cymru 11; won by Independent
    7. Briton Ferry West1 seat Independent 54% chance Independent 48 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 50 · Labour 39 · Plaid Cymru 11; won by Independent
    8. Bryn and Cwmavon3 seats Independent Labour Reform UK 16% chance Independent 30 · Labour 27 · Reform UK 25 2022: Labour 68 · Independent 32; won by 3 Labour
    9. Bryn-coch North1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 61 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 9 2022: Plaid Cymru 57 · Labour 31 · Conservative 12; won by Plaid Cymru
    10. Bryn-coch South2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 64 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 12 2022: Plaid Cymru 59 · Labour 41; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    11. Cadoxton1 seat Independent 53% chance Independent 48 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 52 · Labour 31 · Plaid Cymru 13; won by Independent
    12. Cimla and Pelenna2 seats 2 Independent 54% chance Independent 49 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 57 · Labour 43; won by 2 Independent
    13. Coedffranc Central2 seats 2 Green 98% chance Green 67 · Reform UK 11 · Plaid Cymru 9 2022: Green 42 · Labour 39 · Independent 10; won by Green, Labour
    14. Coedffranc North1 seat Independent 51% chance Independent 35 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 23 2022: Labour 62 · Independent 38; won by Labour
    15. Coedffranc West2 seats 2 Lib Dem 83% chance Lib Dem 47 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Lib Dem 70 · Labour 21 · Conservative 9; won by 2 Lib Dem
    16. Crynant, Onllwyn and Seven Sisters2 seats 2 Independent 53% chance Independent 39 · Green 21 · Reform UK 18 2022: Independent 55 · Labour 37 · Green 8; won by 2 Independent
    17. Cwmllynfell and Ystalyfera2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 62 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 14 2022: Plaid Cymru 57 · Labour 43; won by Plaid Cymru, Labour
    18. Cymer and Glyncorrwg1 seat Independent 59% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Independent 100; won by Independent
    19. Dyffryn2 seats 2 Independent 54% chance Independent 59 · Reform UK 20 · Plaid Cymru 15 2022: Independent 75 · Labour 25; won by 2 Independent
    20. Glynneath Central and East1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 55 · Plaid Cymru 26 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 72 · Plaid Cymru 28; won by Independent
    21. Godre'r Graig1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 59 · Reform UK 20 · Green 15 2022: Plaid Cymru 67 · Labour 28 · Green 5; won by Plaid Cymru
    22. Gwaun-Cae-Gurwen and Lower Brynamman2 seats 2 Labour 96% chance Labour 50 · Reform UK 29 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022, uncontested: 2 Labour
    23. Gwynfi and Croeserw1 seat Independent 58% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    24. Margam and Tai-bach3 seats 2 Plaid Cymru Reform UK 70% chance Plaid Cymru 38 · Reform UK 25 · Independent 19 2022: Labour 42 · Plaid Cymru 31 · Independent 19; won by 3 Labour
    25. Neath East3 seats 2 Plaid Cymru Independent 77% chance Plaid Cymru 38 · Independent 30 · Reform UK 23 2022: Plaid Cymru 35 · Labour 33 · Independent 32; won by Plaid Cymru, Labour, Independent
    26. Neath North2 seats Green Independent 49% chance Green 49 · Independent 20 · Reform UK 14 2022: Labour 39 · Independent 36 · Green 24; won by Labour, Independent
    27. Neath South2 seats Independent Plaid Cymru 43% chance Independent 34 · Plaid Cymru 32 · Reform UK 24 2022: Independent 37 · Labour 35 · Plaid Cymru 28; won by Independent, Labour
    28. Pontardawe2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 58 · Reform UK 25 · Labour 17 2022: Plaid Cymru 52 · Labour 48; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    29. Port Talbot2 seats Plaid Cymru Reform UK 28% chance Plaid Cymru 28 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 21 2022: Labour 58 · Plaid Cymru 23 · Independent 16; won by 2 Labour
    30. Resolven and Tonna2 seats 2 Independent 50% chance Independent 41 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 45 · Independent 41 · Plaid Cymru 14; won by Labour, Independent
    31. Rhos1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 61 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 15 2022: Plaid Cymru 55 · Labour 45; won by Plaid Cymru
    32. Sandfields East3 seats Green 2 Plaid Cymru 27% chance Green 35 · Plaid Cymru 26 · Reform UK 20 2022: Labour 61 · Plaid Cymru 27 · Green 12; won by 3 Labour
    33. Sandfields West3 seats 2 Plaid Cymru Reform UK 63% chance Plaid Cymru 51 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 23 2022: Labour 58 · Plaid Cymru 42; won by 3 Labour
    34. Trebanos1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 69 · Reform UK 22 · Labour 8 2022: Plaid Cymru 69 · Labour 31; won by Plaid Cymru

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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