Merthyr Tydfil: independents would keep a majority between them
Merthyr Tydfil (Merthyr Tudful) elects all 30 councillors in 11 wards on 6 May 2027; 16 make a majority. In 2022: Independent 15, Labour 15.
- 30councillors, 16 for a majority
- 53%Independent control
- 1wards change hands
The council after 6 May, our projection
+5
−11
The line marks a majority (16 of 30). No overall control in 10% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.
What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward
Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.
The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.
What changes hands
- Nothing yet: move a slider.
About Merthyr Tydfil
Merthyr Tydfil (Merthyr Tudful) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 30 councillors in 11 wards. It had 58,840 residents at the 2021 census. 21.8% of households rent from the council or a housing association, against 17.2% nationally; 25% of adults hold a degree or equivalent, below the 33.8% average.
At the last election, in May 2022, independents won 15 seats, Labour 15. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.
On today's Senedd polls our model gives independents a majority, with 20 of 30 seats.
Ward by ward
- Bedlinog and Trelewis2 seats 2 Independent 56% chance Independent 50 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 58 · Labour 36 · Conservative 6; won by 2 Independent
- Cyfarthfa3 seats 3 Independent 54% chance Independent 42 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Independent 45 · Labour 30 · Plaid Cymru 17; won by 3 Independent
- Dowlais and Pant3 seats 3 Independent 57% chance Independent 57 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 12 2022: Independent 64 · Labour 28 · Plaid Cymru 8; won by 3 Independent
- Gurnos3 seats 3 Independent 56% chance Independent 51 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 59 · Labour 41; won by 2 Independent, Labour
- Merthyr Vale2 seats 2 Labour 51% chance Labour 32 · Reform UK 25 · Independent 24 2022: Labour 76 · Independent 24; won by 2 Labour
- Park2 seats 2 Independent 53% chance Independent 38 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 21 2022: Labour 59 · Independent 41; won by 2 Labour
- Penydarren3 seats Independent 2 Reform UK 44% chance Independent 35 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 50 · Independent 35 · Plaid Cymru 15; won by 3 Labour
- Plymouth3 seats 2 Labour Reform UK 46% chance Labour 32 · Reform UK 25 · Independent 24 2022: Labour 76 · Independent 24; won by 3 Labour
- Town4 seats 4 Independent 54% chance Independent 40 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 43 · Independent 41 · Plaid Cymru 16; won by Labour, 3 Independent
- Treharris3 seats 2 Reform UK Plaid Cymru 37% chance Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 22 · Green 21 2022: Labour 57 · Plaid Cymru 19 · Independent 18; won by 3 Labour
- Vaynor2 seats 2 Independent 57% chance Independent 53 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 64 · Labour 36; won by 2 Independent
No ward matches.
Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.
Every Welsh council
- Blaenau Gwent33 seats · Independent
- Bridgend51 seats · Independent
- Caerphilly69 seats · Plaid Cymru
- Cardiff79 seats · no overall control
- Carmarthenshire75 seats · Plaid Cymru
- Ceredigion38 seats · Plaid Cymru
- Conwy55 seats · no overall control
- Denbighshire48 seats · no overall control
- Flintshire67 seats · Independent
- Gwynedd69 seats · Plaid Cymru
- Isle of Anglesey35 seats · Plaid Cymru
- Monmouthshire46 seats · no overall control
- Neath Port Talbot60 seats · no overall control
- Newport51 seats · Reform UK
- Pembrokeshire60 seats · Independent
- Powys68 seats · no overall control
- Rhondda Cynon Taf75 seats · no overall control
- Swansea75 seats · no overall control
- Torfaen40 seats · no overall control
- Vale of Glamorgan54 seats · no overall control
- Wrexham56 seats · Independent
