United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Carmarthenshire

Carmarthenshire: Plaid Cymru would keep control

Carmarthenshire (Sir Gaerfyrddin) elects all 75 councillors in 51 wards on 6 May 2027; 38 make a majority. In 2022: Plaid Cymru 38, Labour 23, Independent 14.

The council after 6 May, our projection

Plaid Cymru +12
50 seats · 37–55 in 80% of runs · 2022: 38 Control 87%
Independent +6
20 seats · 0–35 in 80% of runs · 2022: 14 Control 0%
+4
4 seats · 1–23 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%
+1
1 seats · 0–2 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%
−23
0 seats · 0–3 in 80% of runs · 2022: 23 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (38 of 75). No overall control in 13% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

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What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Carmarthenshire

    Carmarthenshire (Sir Gaerfyrddin) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 75 councillors in 51 wards. It had 187,897 residents at the 2021 census. 24.2% of its people are 65 or over, more than the 18.6% across England and Wales; 94% of residents are white British, more than the 74.4% across England and Wales.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Plaid Cymru won 38 seats, Labour 23 and independents 14; 1 ward was uncontested. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model gives Plaid Cymru a majority, with 50 of 75 seats.

    Ward by ward

    1. Abergwili1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 64 · Reform UK 20 · Conservative 16 2022: Plaid Cymru 71 · Conservative 29; won by Plaid Cymru
    2. Ammanford2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 55 · Reform UK 25 · Labour 14 2022: Plaid Cymru 48 · Labour 42 · Conservative 10; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    3. Betws1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 69 · Reform UK 22 · Labour 8 2022: Plaid Cymru 69 · Labour 31; won by Plaid Cymru
    4. Bigyn3 seats 2 Independent Plaid Cymru 46% chance Independent 41 · Plaid Cymru 24 · Reform UK 24 2022: Independent 44 · Labour 36 · Plaid Cymru 20; won by Independent, 2 Labour
    5. Burry Port2 seats Independent Reform UK 23% chance Independent 28 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 24 2022: Labour 55 · Independent 27 · Plaid Cymru 18; won by 2 Labour
    6. Bynea2 seats 2 Independent 47% chance Independent 33 · Plaid Cymru 27 · Reform UK 25 2022: Labour 46 · Independent 33 · Plaid Cymru 21; won by 2 Labour
    7. Carmarthen Town North and South3 seats 3 Plaid Cymru 91% chance Plaid Cymru 41 · Green 29 · Reform UK 19 2022: Plaid Cymru 47 · Labour 42 · Green 10; won by 3 Plaid Cymru
    8. Carmarthen Town West2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 89% chance Plaid Cymru 57 · Reform UK 22 · Independent 15 2022: Plaid Cymru 59 · Labour 24 · Independent 17; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    9. Cenarth and Llangeler2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 68 · Reform UK 20 · Lib Dem 12 2022: Plaid Cymru 78 · Lib Dem 22; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    10. Cilycwm1 seat Plaid Cymru 96% chance Plaid Cymru 59 · Reform UK 20 · Conservative 11 2022: Plaid Cymru 65 · Conservative 23 · Independent 13; won by Plaid Cymru
    11. Cwarter Bach1 seat Plaid Cymru 98% chance Plaid Cymru 51 · Reform UK 25 · Labour 14 2022: Plaid Cymru 45 · Labour 43 · Independent 7; won by Plaid Cymru
    12. Cynwyl Elfed1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 66 · Reform UK 20 · Conservative 13 2022: Plaid Cymru 74 · Conservative 26; won by Plaid Cymru
    13. Dafen and Felinfoel2 seats 2 Reform UK 50% chance Reform UK 27 · Labour 21 · Independent 20 2022: Labour 53 · Independent 19 · Plaid Cymru 13; won by 2 Labour
    14. Elli1 seat Independent 54% chance Independent 48 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 15 2022: Independent 52 · Labour 29 · Plaid Cymru 11; won by Independent
    15. Garnant1 seat Plaid Cymru 71% chance Plaid Cymru 40 · Labour 32 · Reform UK 28 2022: Labour 70 · Plaid Cymru 30; won by Labour
    16. Glanamman1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 52 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 22 2022: Labour 56 · Plaid Cymru 44; won by Labour
    17. Glanymor2 seats 2 Independent 53% chance Independent 58 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 67 · Labour 23 · Plaid Cymru 10; won by 2 Independent
    18. Glyn1 seat Plaid Cymru 78% chance Plaid Cymru 56 · Reform UK 20 · Independent 19 2022: Plaid Cymru 64 · Independent 24 · Conservative 9; won by Plaid Cymru
    19. Gorslas2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 71 · Reform UK 22 · Labour 7 2022: Plaid Cymru 73 · Labour 27; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    20. Hendy1 seat Plaid Cymru 97% chance Plaid Cymru 56 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 12 2022: Plaid Cymru 52 · Labour 40 · Local groups and others 8; won by Plaid Cymru
    21. Hengoed2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 51% chance Plaid Cymru 32 · Reform UK 24 · Independent 21 2022: Labour 34 · Plaid Cymru 28 · Independent 23; won by 2 Labour
    22. Kidwelly and St Ishmael2 seats Plaid Cymru Green 58% chance Plaid Cymru 36 · Green 30 · Reform UK 20 2022: Labour 51 · Plaid Cymru 39 · Green 10; won by 2 Labour
    23. Laugharne Township1 seat Independent 57% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    24. Llanboidy1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 74 · Reform UK 20 · Conservative 7 2022: Plaid Cymru 85 · Conservative 15; won by Plaid Cymru
    25. Llanddarog1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 72 · Reform UK 19 · Lib Dem 8 2022: Plaid Cymru 84 · Lib Dem 16; won by Plaid Cymru
    26. Llandeilo1 seat Independent 50% chance Independent 47 · Plaid Cymru 34 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 63 · Plaid Cymru 37; won by Independent
    27. Llandovery1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 74 · Reform UK 19 · Conservative 6 2022: Plaid Cymru 86 · Conservative 14; won by Plaid Cymru
    28. Llandybie2 seats Plaid Cymru Independent 46% chance Plaid Cymru 35 · Independent 32 · Reform UK 23 2022: Independent 36 · Plaid Cymru 33 · Labour 26; won by Independent, Plaid Cymru
    29. Llanegwad1 seat Plaid Cymru 85% chance Plaid Cymru 57 · Reform UK 20 · Independent 16 2022: Plaid Cymru 65 · Independent 21 · Conservative 15; won by Plaid Cymru
    30. Llanfihangel Aberbythych1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 60 · Reform UK 21 · Conservative 10 2022: Plaid Cymru 65 · Conservative 20 · Lib Dem 9; won by Plaid Cymru
    31. Llanfihangel-ar-Arth1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 75 · Reform UK 19 · Conservative 6 2022: Plaid Cymru 87 · Conservative 13; won by Plaid Cymru
    32. Llangadog1 seat Plaid Cymru 58% chance Plaid Cymru 45 · Independent 36 · Reform UK 19 2022: Plaid Cymru 51 · Independent 49; won by Plaid Cymru
    33. Llangennech2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 97% chance Plaid Cymru 47 · Reform UK 27 · Labour 26 2022: Labour 62 · Plaid Cymru 38; won by 2 Labour
    34. Llangunnor1 seat Plaid Cymru 76% chance Plaid Cymru 44 · Reform UK 21 · Conservative 19 2022: Plaid Cymru 46 · Conservative 34 · Independent 20; won by Plaid Cymru
    35. Llangyndeyrn2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 82% chance Plaid Cymru 46 · Independent 26 · Reform UK 22 2022: Plaid Cymru 46 · Independent 30 · Labour 24; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    36. Llannon2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 77% chance Plaid Cymru 37 · Reform UK 24 · Independent 22 2022: Labour 34 · Plaid Cymru 33 · Independent 24; won by Labour, Plaid Cymru
    37. Llanybydder1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 72 · Reform UK 22 · Labour 6 2022: Plaid Cymru 75 · Labour 25; won by Plaid Cymru
    38. Lliedi2 seats 2 Independent 46% chance Independent 25 · Reform UK 25 · Labour 22 2022: Labour 58 · Independent 26 · Conservative 16; won by 2 Labour
    39. Llwynhendy2 seats 2 Independent 53% chance Independent 46 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 52 · Labour 43 · Lib Dem 5; won by 2 Independent
    40. Manordeilo and Salem1 seat Independent 49% chance Independent 44 · Plaid Cymru 36 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 59 · Plaid Cymru 41; won by Independent
    41. Pembrey2 seats Independent Plaid Cymru 26% chance Independent 40 · Plaid Cymru 27 · Reform UK 23 2022: Independent 44 · Labour 33 · Plaid Cymru 23; won by Independent, Labour
    42. Penygroes1 seat Plaid Cymru 96% chance Plaid Cymru 49 · Reform UK 23 · Lib Dem 12 2022: Plaid Cymru 46 · Labour 26 · Lib Dem 19; won by Plaid Cymru
    43. Pontyberem1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 70 · Reform UK 22 · Labour 8 2022: Plaid Cymru 71 · Labour 29; won by Plaid Cymru
    44. Saron2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 85% chance Plaid Cymru 46 · Reform UK 25 · Independent 13 2022: Plaid Cymru 40 · Labour 39 · Independent 13; won by Plaid Cymru, Labour
    45. St Clears and Llansteffan2 seats Plaid Cymru Independent 35% chance Plaid Cymru 44 · Independent 37 · Reform UK 19 2022: Plaid Cymru 51 · Independent 49; won by Plaid Cymru, Independent
    46. Swiss Valley1 seat Independent 57% chance Independent 61 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 84 · Conservative 16; won by Independent
    47. Trelech1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 73 · Reform UK 20 · Conservative 7 2022: Plaid Cymru 85 · Conservative 15; won by Plaid Cymru
    48. Trimsaran1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 67 · Reform UK 23 · Labour 10 2022: Plaid Cymru 65 · Labour 35; won by Plaid Cymru
    49. Tycroes1 seat Plaid Cymru 68% chance Plaid Cymru 39 · Labour 32 · Reform UK 28 2022: Labour 71 · Plaid Cymru 29; won by Labour
    50. Tyisha2 seats Plaid Cymru Reform UK 48% chance Plaid Cymru 42 · Reform UK 24 · Independent 22 2022: Labour 41 · Plaid Cymru 37 · Independent 23; won by Labour, Plaid Cymru
    51. Whitland1 seat Independent 58% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Independent 100; won by Independent

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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