United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Newport

Newport: Reform UK would win control

Newport (Casnewydd) elects all 51 councillors in 21 wards on 6 May 2027; 26 make a majority. In 2022: Labour 35, Conservative 7, Independent 4, Local groups and others 3, Green 1, Lib Dem 1.

The council after 6 May, our projection

+28
28 seats · 7–33 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 31%
+4
11 seats · 5–19 in 80% of runs · 2022: 7 Control 1%
+3
4 seats · 3–4 in 80% of runs · 2022: 1 Control 0%
Independent ±0
4 seats · 0–5 in 80% of runs · 2022: 4 Control 0%
Local groups and others ±0
3 seats · 0–9 in 80% of runs · 2022: 3 Control 0%
±0
1 seats · 0–4 in 80% of runs · 2022: 1 Control 0%
−35
0 seats · 0–11 in 80% of runs · 2022: 35 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (26 of 51). No overall control in 68% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

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What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Newport

    Newport (Casnewydd) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 51 councillors in 21 wards. It had 159,592 residents at the 2021 census. 19.5% of households rent from the council or a housing association, against 17.2% nationally; it is younger than most: 17% of its people are 65 or over, against 18.6% across England and Wales.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Labour won 35 seats, the Conservatives 7 and independents 4. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model gives Reform UK a majority, with 28 of 51 seats.

    Ward by ward

    1. Allt-yr-yn3 seats Green 2 Conservative 23% chance Green 31 · Conservative 23 · Reform UK 21 2022: Labour 38 · Conservative 37 · Green 10; won by Labour, 2 Conservative
    2. Alway3 seats 3 Reform UK 57% chance Reform UK 27 · Labour 24 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 58 · Conservative 27 · Lib Dem 15; won by 3 Labour
    3. Beechwood3 seats 3 Reform UK 57% chance Reform UK 27 · Labour 25 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 60 · Lib Dem 22 · Conservative 18; won by 3 Labour
    4. Bettws3 seats 3 Local groups and others 56% chance Local groups and others 44 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Local groups and others 49 · Labour 39 · Conservative 12; won by 3 Local groups and others
    5. Bishton and Langstone2 seats 2 Conservative 97% chance Conservative 44 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Conservative 58 · Labour 32 · Lib Dem 11; won by 2 Conservative
    6. Caerleon3 seats 3 Conservative 70% chance Conservative 32 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 49 · Conservative 42 · Lib Dem 8; won by 3 Labour
    7. Gaer3 seats 3 Reform UK 50% chance Reform UK 26 · Conservative 24 · Labour 22 2022: Labour 56 · Conservative 33 · Lib Dem 11; won by 3 Labour
    8. Graig2 seats 2 Conservative 54% chance Conservative 28 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Conservative 38 · Labour 38 · Lib Dem 24; won by Conservative, Labour
    9. Llanwern1 seat Conservative 99% chance Conservative 48 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Conservative 64 · Labour 30 · Lib Dem 6; won by Conservative
    10. Lliswerry4 seats 4 Independent 57% chance Independent 50 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 59 · Labour 31 · Conservative 10; won by 4 Independent
    11. Malpas3 seats 3 Reform UK 45% chance Reform UK 24 · Local groups and others 21 · Conservative 20 2022: Labour 41 · Conservative 31 · Local groups and others 22; won by 3 Labour
    12. Pillgwenlly2 seats 2 Reform UK 49% chance Reform UK 28 · Local groups and others 22 · Labour 19 2022: Labour 48 · Local groups and others 20 · Lib Dem 16; won by 2 Labour
    13. Ringland3 seats 3 Reform UK 49% chance Reform UK 26 · Labour 23 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 59 · Conservative 25 · Independent 16; won by 3 Labour
    14. Rogerstone East1 seat Reform UK 40% chance Reform UK 27 · Labour 26 · Conservative 22 2022: Labour 63 · Conservative 30 · Lib Dem 7; won by Labour
    15. Rogerstone North1 seat Conservative 96% chance Conservative 43 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Conservative 55 · Labour 45; won by Conservative
    16. Rogerstone West2 seats 2 Reform UK 59% chance Reform UK 27 · Labour 25 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 60 · Conservative 28 · Lib Dem 11; won by 2 Labour
    17. Shaftesbury2 seats 2 Green 99% chance Green 62 · Reform UK 13 · Plaid Cymru 9 2022: Labour 37 · Green 35 · Conservative 15; won by Labour, Green
    18. St Julians3 seats Lib Dem 2 Reform UK 44% chance Lib Dem 28 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 43 · Lib Dem 39 · Conservative 18; won by 2 Labour, Lib Dem
    19. Stow Hill2 seats 2 Reform UK 49% chance Reform UK 25 · Labour 22 · Local groups and others 20 2022: Labour 57 · Conservative 24 · Local groups and others 20; won by 2 Labour
    20. Tredegar Park and Marshfield3 seats Green 2 Reform UK 31% chance Green 41 · Reform UK 17 · Conservative 15 2022: Labour 44 · Conservative 33 · Green 17; won by 3 Labour
    21. Victoria2 seats 2 Reform UK 59% chance Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 19 · Labour 18 2022: Labour 50 · Conservative 23 · Lib Dem 18; won by 2 Labour

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

    Every Welsh council

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