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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Blaenau Gwent

Blaenau Gwent: independents would keep a majority between them

Blaenau Gwent elects all 33 councillors in 14 wards on 6 May 2027; 17 make a majority. In 2022: Labour 21, Independent 12.

The council after 6 May, our projection

Independent +12
24 seats · 0–27 in 80% of runs · 2022: 12 Control 53%
+4
4 seats · 1–26 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 33%
Plaid Cymru +2
2 seats · 1–9 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 2%
−19
2 seats · 0–7 in 80% of runs · 2022: 21 Control under 1%
+1
1 seats · 0–1 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (17 of 33). No overall control in 12% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

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What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Blaenau Gwent

    Blaenau Gwent is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 33 councillors in 14 wards. It had 66,900 residents at the 2021 census. 23.7% of households rent from the council or a housing association, against 17.2% nationally; 21.6% of adults hold a degree or equivalent, below the 33.8% average.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Labour won 21 seats, independents 12. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model gives independents a majority, with 24 of 33 seats.

    Ward by ward

    1. Abertillery and Six Bells3 seats 3 Independent 56% chance Independent 42 · Reform UK 23 · Labour 18 2022: Labour 54 · Independent 46; won by 2 Labour, Independent
    2. Beaufort3 seats 3 Independent 56% chance Independent 43 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 52 · Independent 48; won by 2 Labour, Independent
    3. Blaina2 seats Independent Reform UK 53% chance Independent 43 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 52 · Independent 48; won by Labour, Independent
    4. Brynmawr3 seats 3 Independent 54% chance Independent 55 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 67 · Labour 33; won by 2 Independent, Labour
    5. Cwm2 seats Independent Green 50% chance Independent 30 · Green 26 · Reform UK 18 2022: Independent 43 · Labour 41 · Green 10; won by Independent, Labour
    6. Cwmtillery2 seats 2 Independent 60% chance Independent 49 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 56 · Labour 44; won by 2 Independent
    7. Ebbw Vale North2 seats 2 Independent 55% chance Independent 43 · Reform UK 23 · Labour 17 2022: Labour 53 · Independent 47; won by Labour, Independent
    8. Ebbw Vale South2 seats 2 Independent 56% chance Independent 41 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 46 · Labour 42 · Conservative 12; won by Independent, Labour
    9. Georgetown2 seats Plaid Cymru Labour 47% chance Plaid Cymru 45 · Labour 28 · Reform UK 27 2022: Labour 65 · Plaid Cymru 35; won by 2 Labour
    10. Llanhilleth2 seats 2 Independent 53% chance Independent 37 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 24 2022: Labour 43 · Independent 38 · Plaid Cymru 19; won by Labour, Independent
    11. Nantyglo2 seats Independent Reform UK 28% chance Independent 36 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 22 2022: Labour 61 · Independent 39; won by 2 Labour
    12. Rassau and Garnlydan2 seats 2 Independent 57% chance Independent 44 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 51 · Independent 49; won by Labour, Independent
    13. Sirhowy3 seats 2 Independent Labour 35% chance Independent 31 · Labour 26 · Reform UK 24 2022: Labour 67 · Independent 33; won by 3 Labour
    14. Tredegar3 seats Plaid Cymru 2 Reform UK 36% chance Plaid Cymru 28 · Reform UK 27 · Independent 21 2022: Labour 51 · Plaid Cymru 21 · Independent 20; won by 3 Labour

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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