United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Cardiff

Cardiff: no party would have a majority

Cardiff (Caerdydd) elects all 79 councillors in 28 wards on 6 May 2027; 40 make a majority. In 2022: Labour 55, Conservative 11, Lib Dem 10, Plaid Cymru 2, Local groups and others 1.

The council after 6 May, our projection

+28
28 seats · 12–47 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 22%
Plaid Cymru +23
25 seats · 12–31 in 80% of runs · 2022: 2 Control 1%
+1
11 seats · 1–11 in 80% of runs · 2022: 10 Control 0%
−3
8 seats · 4–12 in 80% of runs · 2022: 11 Control 0%
−51
4 seats · 1–21 in 80% of runs · 2022: 55 Control 0%
Local groups and others +2
3 seats · 0–10 in 80% of runs · 2022: 1 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (40 of 79). No overall control in 77% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Cardiff

    Cardiff (Caerdydd) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 79 councillors in 28 wards. It had 362,310 residents at the 2021 census. 18.5% are in their twenties, a young population (12.6% nationally); 40% of adults hold a degree or equivalent, above the 33.8% average.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Labour won 55 seats, the Conservatives 11 and the Liberal Democrats 10. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model has no party with a majority: Reform UK would be largest on 28 of 79 seats, 12 short.

    Ward by ward

    1. Adamsdown2 seats 2 Reform UK 49% chance Reform UK 30 · Labour 29 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 62 · Lib Dem 18 · Plaid Cymru 11; won by 2 Labour
    2. Butetown3 seats Plaid Cymru 2 Reform UK 44% chance Plaid Cymru 33 · Reform UK 28 · Labour 22 2022: Labour 54 · Plaid Cymru 23 · Lib Dem 11; won by 3 Labour
    3. Caerau2 seats Labour Reform UK 51% chance Labour 34 · Reform UK 30 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 69 · Conservative 12 · Plaid Cymru 9; won by 2 Labour
    4. Canton3 seats 3 Plaid Cymru 98% chance Plaid Cymru 48 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 16 2022: Labour 46 · Plaid Cymru 40 · Conservative 8; won by 3 Labour
    5. Cathays4 seats Plaid Cymru 3 Reform UK 31% chance Plaid Cymru 29 · Reform UK 27 · Labour 18 2022: Labour 48 · Plaid Cymru 21 · Lib Dem 12; won by 4 Labour
    6. Cyncoed3 seats 3 Lib Dem 79% chance Lib Dem 40 · Reform UK 27 · Plaid Cymru 12 2022: Lib Dem 54 · Labour 21 · Conservative 17; won by 3 Lib Dem
    7. Ely3 seats 3 Reform UK 44% chance Reform UK 29 · Labour 25 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 58 · Conservative 13 · Local groups and others 13; won by 3 Labour
    8. Fairwater3 seats 3 Local groups and others 51% chance Local groups and others 37 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Labour 38 · Local groups and others 37 · Plaid Cymru 11; won by 2 Labour, Local groups and others
    9. Gabalfa2 seats 2 Lib Dem 60% chance Lib Dem 34 · Reform UK 27 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Lib Dem 44 · Labour 34 · Plaid Cymru 12; won by 2 Lib Dem
    10. Grangetown4 seats 4 Plaid Cymru 72% chance Plaid Cymru 38 · Reform UK 27 · Labour 22 2022: Labour 54 · Plaid Cymru 28 · Conservative 9; won by 4 Labour
    11. Heath3 seats 3 Reform UK 79% chance Reform UK 30 · Labour 20 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Labour 47 · Conservative 23 · Lib Dem 20; won by 3 Labour
    12. Lisvane and Thornhill3 seats 3 Conservative 79% chance Conservative 36 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Conservative 42 · Labour 40 · Plaid Cymru 9; won by 3 Conservative
    13. Llandaff2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 64% chance Plaid Cymru 34 · Reform UK 26 · Conservative 25 2022: Conservative 35 · Labour 31 · Plaid Cymru 27; won by Conservative, Labour
    14. Llandaff North2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 55% chance Plaid Cymru 32 · Reform UK 28 · Labour 25 2022: Labour 58 · Plaid Cymru 23 · Conservative 10; won by 2 Labour
    15. Llanishen2 seats 2 Reform UK 63% chance Reform UK 30 · Labour 24 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 54 · Conservative 25 · Plaid Cymru 11; won by 2 Labour
    16. Llanrumney3 seats 3 Reform UK 48% chance Reform UK 30 · Labour 27 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Labour 60 · Conservative 18 · Plaid Cymru 10; won by 3 Labour
    17. Pentwyn3 seats 3 Lib Dem 61% chance Lib Dem 37 · Reform UK 29 · Labour 15 2022: Lib Dem 45 · Labour 41 · Conservative 8; won by 2 Lib Dem, Labour
    18. Pentyrch and St Fagans3 seats 3 Plaid Cymru 89% chance Plaid Cymru 39 · Reform UK 25 · Conservative 20 2022: Plaid Cymru 33 · Conservative 30 · Labour 26; won by 2 Plaid Cymru, Conservative
    19. Penylan3 seats 3 Lib Dem 60% chance Lib Dem 35 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Lib Dem 45 · Labour 33 · Plaid Cymru 11; won by 3 Lib Dem
    20. Plasnewydd4 seats 3 Reform UK Plaid Cymru 53% chance Reform UK 29 · Plaid Cymru 27 · Labour 26 2022: Labour 60 · Plaid Cymru 18 · Lib Dem 14; won by 4 Labour
    21. Pontprennau and Old St Mellons2 seats 2 Conservative 82% chance Conservative 39 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Conservative 46 · Labour 38 · Plaid Cymru 8; won by 2 Conservative
    22. Radyr2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 75% chance Plaid Cymru 35 · Reform UK 26 · Conservative 24 2022: Conservative 34 · Labour 33 · Plaid Cymru 28; won by Conservative, Labour
    23. Rhiwbina3 seats 3 Conservative 80% chance Conservative 39 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Conservative 47 · Labour 38 · Plaid Cymru 10; won by 3 Conservative
    24. Riverside3 seats 2 Plaid Cymru Reform UK 48% chance Plaid Cymru 34 · Reform UK 28 · Labour 24 2022: Labour 58 · Plaid Cymru 25 · Conservative 7; won by 3 Labour
    25. Rumney2 seats 2 Reform UK 66% chance Reform UK 29 · Conservative 24 · Labour 21 2022: Labour 50 · Conservative 30 · Plaid Cymru 10; won by 2 Labour
    26. Splott3 seats 3 Labour 52% chance Labour 32 · Reform UK 30 · Plaid Cymru 23 2022: Labour 67 · Plaid Cymru 14 · Conservative 9; won by 3 Labour
    27. Trowbridge3 seats 3 Reform UK 60% chance Reform UK 29 · Labour 23 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 54 · Conservative 18 · Plaid Cymru 13; won by 3 Labour
    28. Whitchurch and Tongwynlais4 seats 4 Plaid Cymru 75% chance Plaid Cymru 35 · Reform UK 28 · Conservative 19 2022: Labour 40 · Conservative 27 · Plaid Cymru 26; won by 4 Labour

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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