United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Rhondda Cynon Taf

Rhondda Cynon Taf: no party would have a majority

Rhondda Cynon Taf elects all 75 councillors in 46 wards on 6 May 2027; 38 make a majority. In 2022: Labour 59, Plaid Cymru 8, Independent 6, Conservative 2.

The council after 6 May, our projection

Plaid Cymru +23
31 seats · 23–40 in 80% of runs · 2022: 8 Control 17%
+18
18 seats · 7–34 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 4%
−47
12 seats · 4–20 in 80% of runs · 2022: 59 Control under 1%
Independent +4
10 seats · 0–19 in 80% of runs · 2022: 6 Control 0%
±0
2 seats · 0–3 in 80% of runs · 2022: 2 Control 0%
+2
2 seats · 0–2 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (38 of 75). No overall control in 80% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

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What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Rhondda Cynon Taf

    Rhondda Cynon Taf is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 75 councillors in 46 wards. It had 237,653 residents at the 2021 census. 95.1% of residents are white British, more than the 74.4% across England and Wales; 26.7% of adults hold a degree or equivalent, below the 33.8% average.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Labour won 59 seats, Plaid Cymru 8 and independents 6. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model has no party with a majority: Plaid Cymru would be largest on 31 of 75 seats, 7 short.

    Ward by ward

    1. Aberaman3 seats Plaid Cymru 2 Reform UK 31% chance Plaid Cymru 42 · Reform UK 27 · Labour 23 2022: Labour 56 · Plaid Cymru 32 · Conservative 12; won by 3 Labour
    2. Abercynon2 seats 2 Reform UK 45% chance Reform UK 28 · Labour 27 · Plaid Cymru 24 2022: Labour 61 · Plaid Cymru 16 · Local groups and others 13; won by 2 Labour
    3. Aberdare East2 seats Plaid Cymru Reform UK 36% chance Plaid Cymru 35 · Reform UK 29 · Labour 28 2022: Labour 64 · Plaid Cymru 25 · Conservative 12; won by 2 Labour
    4. Aberdare West and Llwydcoed3 seats Plaid Cymru 2 Reform UK 26% chance Plaid Cymru 34 · Reform UK 29 · Labour 25 2022: Labour 58 · Plaid Cymru 24 · Conservative 18; won by 3 Labour
    5. Beddau and Tyn-y-nant2 seats Labour Reform UK 43% chance Labour 33 · Reform UK 30 · Plaid Cymru 26 2022: Labour 69 · Plaid Cymru 16 · Conservative 15; won by 2 Labour
    6. Brynna and Llanharan3 seats Independent 2 Reform UK 17% chance Independent 31 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 23 2022: Independent 32 · Labour 29 · Plaid Cymru 18; won by Independent, 2 Labour
    7. Church Village2 seats Plaid Cymru Reform UK 47% chance Plaid Cymru 30 · Reform UK 26 · Independent 21 2022: Labour 40 · Plaid Cymru 23 · Independent 20; won by 2 Labour
    8. Cilfynydd1 seat Plaid Cymru 81% chance Plaid Cymru 49 · Reform UK 24 · Independent 16 2022: Plaid Cymru 45 · Labour 39 · Independent 17; won by Plaid Cymru
    9. Cwm Clydach1 seat Plaid Cymru 85% chance Plaid Cymru 42 · Labour 30 · Reform UK 28 2022: Labour 68 · Plaid Cymru 32; won by Labour
    10. Cwmbach2 seats Green Plaid Cymru 38% chance Green 31 · Plaid Cymru 22 · Reform UK 19 2022: Labour 42 · Plaid Cymru 24 · Independent 23; won by 2 Labour
    11. Cymer2 seats Plaid Cymru Labour 60% chance Plaid Cymru 38 · Labour 33 · Reform UK 28 2022: Labour 72 · Plaid Cymru 28; won by 2 Labour
    12. Ferndale and Maerdy2 seats Plaid Cymru Independent 31% chance Plaid Cymru 28 · Independent 27 · Reform UK 26 2022: Labour 45 · Independent 27 · Plaid Cymru 22; won by 2 Labour
    13. Gilfach-goch1 seat Labour 95% chance Labour 45 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 92 · Conservative 8; won by Labour
    14. Glyn-coch1 seat Labour 33% chance Labour 30 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 24 2022: Labour 67 · Plaid Cymru 16 · Local groups and others 16; won by Labour
    15. Graig and Pontypridd West2 seats Plaid Cymru Reform UK 57% chance Plaid Cymru 33 · Reform UK 27 · Labour 20 2022: Labour 52 · Plaid Cymru 25 · Independent 12; won by 2 Labour
    16. Hawthorn and Lower Rhydfelen1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 53 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 63 · Labour 37; won by Independent
    17. Hirwaun, Penderyn and Rhigos2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 64 · Reform UK 23 · Labour 8 2022: Plaid Cymru 61 · Labour 29 · Conservative 10; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    18. Llanharry1 seat Independent 51% chance Independent 37 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 18 2022: Labour 48 · Independent 36 · Plaid Cymru 9; won by Labour
    19. Llantrisant and Talbot Green2 seats Independent Reform UK 46% chance Independent 29 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 22 2022: Labour 33 · Independent 29 · Conservative 22; won by 2 Labour
    20. Llantwit Fardre2 seats 2 Conservative 87% chance Conservative 40 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 23 2022: Conservative 49 · Labour 35 · Plaid Cymru 16; won by 2 Conservative
    21. Llwyn-y-pia1 seat Labour 34% chance Labour 30 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 28 2022: Labour 68 · Plaid Cymru 19 · Local groups and others 13; won by Labour
    22. Mountain Ash2 seats Plaid Cymru Reform UK 48% chance Plaid Cymru 42 · Reform UK 27 · Labour 23 2022: Labour 57 · Plaid Cymru 33 · Conservative 6; won by 2 Labour
    23. Pen-y-graig2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 64% chance Plaid Cymru 38 · Reform UK 27 · Labour 22 2022: Labour 55 · Plaid Cymru 30 · Independent 9; won by 2 Labour
    24. Pen-y-waun1 seat Labour 74% chance Labour 40 · Reform UK 31 · Plaid Cymru 22 2022: Labour 77 · Plaid Cymru 12 · Conservative 10; won by Labour
    25. Penrhiw-ceibr2 seats 2 Labour 70% chance Labour 39 · Plaid Cymru 32 · Reform UK 30 2022: Labour 79 · Plaid Cymru 21; won by 2 Labour
    26. Pentre2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 96% chance Plaid Cymru 47 · Reform UK 27 · Labour 22 2022: Labour 55 · Plaid Cymru 37 · Conservative 7; won by 2 Labour
    27. Pontyclun Central1 seat Independent 49% chance Independent 27 · Reform UK 26 · Conservative 20 2022: Labour 31 · Conservative 30 · Independent 27; won by Labour
    28. Pontyclun East1 seat Reform UK 37% chance Reform UK 25 · Independent 23 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Independent 24 · Conservative 24 · Lib Dem 21; won by Independent
    29. Pontyclun West1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 48 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 58 · Labour 24 · Conservative 15; won by Independent
    30. Pontypridd Town1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 59 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 11 2022: Plaid Cymru 54 · Labour 36 · Conservative 10; won by Plaid Cymru
    31. Porth2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 99% chance Plaid Cymru 44 · Reform UK 22 · Labour 16 2022: Labour 50 · Plaid Cymru 43 · Green 4; won by 2 Labour
    32. Rhydfelen Central1 seat Labour 52% chance Labour 37 · Plaid Cymru 34 · Reform UK 29 2022: Labour 76 · Plaid Cymru 24; won by Labour
    33. Taff's Well1 seat Plaid Cymru 90% chance Plaid Cymru 41 · Reform UK 28 · Labour 23 2022: Labour 57 · Plaid Cymru 31 · Conservative 13; won by Labour
    34. Ton-teg1 seat Independent 51% chance Independent 35 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 39 · Independent 39 · Conservative 22; won by Labour
    35. Tonypandy1 seat Plaid Cymru 81% chance Plaid Cymru 39 · Labour 28 · Reform UK 28 2022: Labour 64 · Plaid Cymru 29 · Conservative 4; won by Labour
    36. Tonyrefail East2 seats Plaid Cymru Reform UK 64% chance Plaid Cymru 55 · Reform UK 25 · Labour 15 2022: Plaid Cymru 47 · Labour 45 · Conservative 8; won by Plaid Cymru, Labour
    37. Tonyrefail West2 seats Plaid Cymru Reform UK 45% chance Plaid Cymru 28 · Reform UK 26 · Independent 22 2022: Labour 45 · Independent 22 · Plaid Cymru 22; won by 2 Labour
    38. Trallwng1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 49 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 51 · Labour 37 · Plaid Cymru 9; won by Independent
    39. Trealaw1 seat Labour 75% chance Labour 40 · Plaid Cymru 30 · Reform UK 30 2022: Labour 80 · Plaid Cymru 20; won by Labour
    40. Treforest1 seat Green 45% chance Green 26 · Labour 25 · Reform UK 24 2022: Labour 67 · Plaid Cymru 16 · Conservative 10; won by Labour
    41. Treherbert2 seats Independent Reform UK 27% chance Independent 43 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Independent 44 · Labour 40 · Plaid Cymru 16; won by Independent, Labour
    42. Treorchy2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 99% chance Plaid Cymru 49 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 22 2022: Labour 55 · Plaid Cymru 39 · Conservative 5; won by Labour, Plaid Cymru
    43. Tylorstown and Ynyshir2 seats Plaid Cymru Labour 33% chance Plaid Cymru 36 · Labour 30 · Reform UK 29 2022: Labour 67 · Plaid Cymru 25 · Conservative 8; won by 2 Labour
    44. Upper Rhydfelen and Glyn-taf1 seat Labour 38% chance Labour 31 · Reform UK 25 · Independent 25 2022: Labour 75 · Independent 25; won by Labour
    45. Ynysybwl2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 98% chance Plaid Cymru 56 · Reform UK 23 · Labour 9 2022: Plaid Cymru 52 · Labour 33 · Local groups and others 9; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    46. Ystrad2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 95% chance Plaid Cymru 50 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 24 2022: Labour 59 · Plaid Cymru 41; won by 2 Labour

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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