United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
PollingForecast.com United Kingdom
Closest
United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Conwy

Conwy: no party would have a majority

Conwy elects all 55 councillors in 30 wards on 6 May 2027; 28 make a majority. In 2022: Independent 22, Labour 11, Conservative 10, Plaid Cymru 7, Lib Dem 4, Green 1.

The council after 6 May, our projection

Independent ±0
22 seats · 0–36 in 80% of runs · 2022: 22 Control 49%
+15
15 seats · 3–31 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 16%
Plaid Cymru +2
9 seats · 7–15 in 80% of runs · 2022: 7 Control 0%
+4
5 seats · 2–6 in 80% of runs · 2022: 1 Control 0%
−2
2 seats · 0–3 in 80% of runs · 2022: 4 Control 0%
−10
1 seats · 0–2 in 80% of runs · 2022: 11 Control 0%
−9
1 seats · 0–11 in 80% of runs · 2022: 10 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (28 of 55). No overall control in 36% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Conwy

    Conwy is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 55 councillors in 30 wards. It had 114,739 residents at the 2021 census. 27.3% of its people are 65 or over, more than the 18.6% across England and Wales; 12% of households rent social housing, fewer than the 17.2% nationally.

    At the last election, in May 2022, independents won 22 seats, Labour 11 and the Conservatives 10. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model has no party with a majority: independents would be largest on 22 of 55 seats, 6 short.

    Ward by ward

    1. Betws-y-Coed and Trefriw1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 66 · Reform UK 22 · Conservative 7 2022: Plaid Cymru 68 · Labour 18 · Conservative 14; won by Plaid Cymru
    2. Betws-yn-Rhos1 seat Independent 65% chance Independent 62 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 86 · Conservative 14; won by Independent
    3. Bryn1 seat Reform UK 30% chance Reform UK 27 · Conservative 25 · Independent 18 2022: Conservative 34 · Labour 33 · Independent 17; won by Conservative
    4. Caerhun1 seat Independent 60% chance Independent 34 · Conservative 23 · Reform UK 21 2022: Independent 41 · Conservative 38 · Labour 21; won by Independent
    5. Colwyn2 seats 2 Reform UK 38% chance Reform UK 26 · Conservative 24 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Conservative 33 · Labour 26 · Independent 15; won by Conservative, Labour
    6. Conwy2 seats Green Independent 27% chance Green 34 · Independent 19 · Reform UK 17 2022: Labour 32 · Independent 28 · Conservative 26; won by Labour, Independent
    7. Craig-y-don2 seats Independent Reform UK 51% chance Independent 28 · Reform UK 25 · Conservative 18 2022: Independent 29 · Conservative 28 · Labour 23; won by Independent, Conservative
    8. Deganwy2 seats Green Independent 48% chance Green 40 · Independent 24 · Reform UK 13 2022: Independent 46 · Conservative 33 · Green 21; won by Independent, Conservative
    9. Eglwys-bach a Llangernyw1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 68 · Reform UK 21 · Conservative 7 2022: Plaid Cymru 73 · Conservative 14 · Labour 13; won by Plaid Cymru
    10. Eirias2 seats 2 Green 60% chance Green 41 · Independent 24 · Reform UK 13 2022: Independent 46 · Conservative 33 · Green 22; won by Independent, Conservative
    11. Gele and Llanddulas3 seats Green 2 Independent 33% chance Green 44 · Independent 27 · Reform UK 13 2022: Independent 54 · Green 24 · Conservative 22; won by 2 Independent, Green
    12. Glyn2 seats Plaid Cymru Reform UK 50% chance Plaid Cymru 48 · Reform UK 25 · Labour 11 2022: Plaid Cymru 42 · Labour 36 · Conservative 12; won by Plaid Cymru, Labour
    13. Glyn y Marl3 seats Independent 2 Reform UK 20% chance Independent 29 · Reform UK 21 · Green 14 2022: Independent 35 · Labour 20 · Lib Dem 18; won by Independent, Labour, Lib Dem
    14. Gogarth Mostyn3 seats Independent 2 Reform UK 37% chance Independent 27 · Reform UK 23 · Conservative 22 2022: Labour 36 · Conservative 34 · Independent 30; won by Labour, 2 Conservative
    15. Kinmel Bay3 seats 3 Independent 63% chance Independent 46 · Conservative 21 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 62 · Conservative 38; won by 3 Independent
    16. Llandrillo-yn-Rhos4 seats 3 Reform UK Conservative 52% chance Reform UK 24 · Conservative 23 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Conservative 35 · Labour 33 · Lib Dem 16; won by 2 Conservative, 2 Labour
    17. Llanrwst a Llanddoged2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 56 · Conservative 24 · Reform UK 20 2022: Plaid Cymru 60 · Conservative 40; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    18. Llansanffraid1 seat Independent 64% chance Independent 46 · Reform UK 20 · Plaid Cymru 15 2022: Independent 59 · Conservative 25 · Lib Dem 16; won by Independent
    19. Llansannan1 seat Plaid Cymru 44% chance Plaid Cymru 38 · Independent 36 · Reform UK 20 2022: Independent 46 · Plaid Cymru 41 · Conservative 13; won by Independent
    20. Llysfaen1 seat Independent 62% chance Independent 41 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 47 · Labour 29 · Conservative 24; won by Independent
    21. Mochdre1 seat Labour 59% chance Labour 31 · Reform UK 27 · Conservative 21 2022: Labour 71 · Conservative 29; won by Labour
    22. Pandy1 seat Reform UK 47% chance Reform UK 27 · Labour 25 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 61 · Conservative 24 · Lib Dem 15; won by Labour
    23. Pen-sarn Pentre Mawr3 seats 3 Independent 65% chance Independent 54 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 73 · Conservative 27; won by 3 Independent
    24. Penmaenmawr2 seats Plaid Cymru Independent 21% chance Plaid Cymru 31 · Independent 27 · Reform UK 25 2022: Labour 33 · Independent 28 · Plaid Cymru 25; won by Labour, Independent
    25. Penrhyn2 seats 2 Independent 63% chance Independent 46 · Reform UK 20 · Conservative 16 2022: Independent 58 · Conservative 30 · Labour 12; won by 2 Independent
    26. Rhiw3 seats 2 Lib Dem Reform UK 58% chance Lib Dem 30 · Reform UK 21 · Conservative 17 2022: Lib Dem 51 · Conservative 30 · Independent 19; won by 3 Lib Dem
    27. Towyn1 seat Independent 60% chance Independent 39 · Conservative 28 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 52 · Conservative 48; won by Independent
    28. Tudno2 seats Reform UK Independent 41% chance Reform UK 23 · Independent 23 · Conservative 18 2022: Labour 31 · Conservative 29 · Independent 25; won by Labour, Conservative
    29. Uwch Aled1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 76 · Reform UK 19 · Conservative 5 2022: Plaid Cymru 89 · Conservative 11; won by Plaid Cymru
    30. Uwch Conwy1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 70 · Reform UK 21 · Conservative 5 2022: Plaid Cymru 75 · Labour 16 · Conservative 9; won by Plaid Cymru

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

    Every Welsh council

    You may also like

    Local elections, May 2027 215 English councils, ward by ward Seats All 650 constituencies: results, projections and seats at risk Map Every seat on a hex or real map, under any reading of the polls By-elections What the polls imply, and how by-elections differ