United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
PollingForecast.com United Kingdom
Closest
United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Denbighshire

Denbighshire: no party would have a majority

Denbighshire (Sir Ddinbych) elects all 48 councillors in 29 wards on 6 May 2027; 25 make a majority. In 2022: Labour 19, Independent 12, Plaid Cymru 8, Conservative 6, Green 2, Lib Dem 1.

The council after 6 May, our projection

+6
12 seats · 3–14 in 80% of runs · 2022: 6 Control 0%
Plaid Cymru +3
11 seats · 7–15 in 80% of runs · 2022: 8 Control under 1%
Independent −1
11 seats · 0–23 in 80% of runs · 2022: 12 Control 0%
+7
7 seats · 3–22 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 5%
+3
5 seats · 3–6 in 80% of runs · 2022: 2 Control 0%
−17
2 seats · 0–7 in 80% of runs · 2022: 19 Control 0%
−1
0 seats · 0–0 in 80% of runs · 2022: 1 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (25 of 48). No overall control in 95% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Denbighshire

    Denbighshire (Sir Ddinbych) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 48 councillors in 29 wards. It had 95,817 residents at the 2021 census. 24.8% of its people are 65 or over, more than the 18.6% across England and Wales; 94.4% of residents are white British, more than the 74.4% across England and Wales.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Labour won 19 seats, independents 12 and Plaid Cymru 8; 1 ward was uncontested. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model has no party with a majority: the Conservatives would be largest on 12 of 48 seats, 13 short.

    Ward by ward

    1. Alyn Valley1 seat Conservative over 99% chance Conservative 67 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022, uncontested: Conservative
    2. Bodelwyddan1 seat Conservative 73% chance Conservative 33 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 22 2022: Labour 57 · Conservative 43; won by Labour
    3. Denbigh Caledfryn Henllan3 seats 2 Plaid Cymru Independent 35% chance Plaid Cymru 37 · Independent 37 · Reform UK 20 2022: Independent 47 · Plaid Cymru 39 · Conservative 14; won by 2 Independent, Plaid Cymru
    4. Denbigh Lower2 seats Plaid Cymru Independent 50% chance Plaid Cymru 37 · Independent 35 · Reform UK 20 2022: Independent 45 · Plaid Cymru 40 · Conservative 15; won by Independent, Plaid Cymru
    5. Dyserth1 seat Independent 61% chance Independent 58 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 79 · Conservative 21; won by Independent
    6. Edeirnion2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 64 · Reform UK 23 · Labour 8 2022: Plaid Cymru 62 · Labour 27 · Conservative 11; won by 2 Plaid Cymru
    7. Efenechdyd1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 70 · Reform UK 20 · Conservative 10 2022: Plaid Cymru 79 · Conservative 21; won by Plaid Cymru
    8. Llandyrnog1 seat Independent 61% chance Independent 62 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 87 · Conservative 13; won by Independent
    9. Llanfair Dyffryn Clwyd Gwyddelwern1 seat Independent 51% chance Independent 37 · Green 33 · Reform UK 14 2022: Independent 67 · Conservative 17 · Green 16; won by Independent
    10. Llangollen2 seats Green Independent 38% chance Green 60 · Independent 20 · Reform UK 10 2022: Independent 48 · Green 42 · Conservative 10; won by 2 Independent
    11. Llanrhaeadr-yng-Nghinmeirch1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 63 · Reform UK 20 · Conservative 17 2022: Plaid Cymru 69 · Conservative 31; won by Plaid Cymru
    12. Moel Famau1 seat Independent 60% chance Independent 50 · Reform UK 19 · Conservative 17 2022: Independent 67 · Conservative 33; won by Independent
    13. Prestatyn Central2 seats 2 Green 98% chance Green 71 · Reform UK 10 · Plaid Cymru 8 2022: Green 49 · Conservative 24 · Labour 23; won by Green, Conservative
    14. Prestatyn East2 seats Independent Reform UK 28% chance Independent 33 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 37 · Labour 35 · Conservative 28; won by Independent, Labour
    15. Prestatyn Meliden1 seat Conservative 53% chance Conservative 30 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 24 2022: Labour 61 · Conservative 39; won by Labour
    16. Prestatyn North3 seats 2 Reform UK Plaid Cymru 41% chance Reform UK 27 · Plaid Cymru 26 · Independent 18 2022: Labour 37 · Conservative 26 · Plaid Cymru 19; won by 3 Labour
    17. Prestatyn South West2 seats Conservative Reform UK 33% chance Conservative 29 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 25 2022: Labour 62 · Conservative 38; won by 2 Labour
    18. Rhuddlan2 seats Plaid Cymru Conservative 46% chance Plaid Cymru 36 · Conservative 24 · Reform UK 24 2022: Conservative 36 · Plaid Cymru 31 · Labour 23; won by Conservative, Plaid Cymru
    19. Rhyl East2 seats 2 Conservative 47% chance Conservative 28 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Labour 46 · Conservative 39 · Independent 14; won by Labour, Conservative
    20. Rhyl South2 seats 2 Conservative 47% chance Conservative 28 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 26 2022: Labour 63 · Conservative 37; won by 2 Labour
    21. Rhyl South West2 seats 2 Reform UK 42% chance Reform UK 26 · Labour 23 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 59 · Conservative 27 · Independent 14; won by 2 Labour
    22. Rhyl Trellewelyn2 seats Independent Reform UK 26% chance Independent 31 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 40 · Independent 30 · Conservative 18; won by 2 Labour
    23. Rhyl Tŷ Newydd2 seats 2 Conservative 53% chance Conservative 31 · Reform UK 26 · Labour 23 2022: Labour 59 · Conservative 41; won by 2 Labour
    24. Rhyl West2 seats 2 Labour 49% chance Labour 30 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Labour 70 · Conservative 17 · Independent 13; won by 2 Labour
    25. Ruthin3 seats Plaid Cymru Independent Green 29% chance Plaid Cymru 27 · Independent 24 · Green 18 2022: Independent 34 · Plaid Cymru 32 · Lib Dem 23; won by Independent, Plaid Cymru, Lib Dem
    26. St Asaph East1 seat Green over 99% chance Green 70 · Conservative 14 · Reform UK 9 2022: Green 53 · Conservative 47; won by Green
    27. St Asaph West1 seat Conservative 54% chance Conservative 38 · Independent 29 · Reform UK 19 2022: Conservative 61 · Independent 39; won by Conservative
    28. Trefnant1 seat Plaid Cymru 90% chance Plaid Cymru 46 · Conservative 33 · Reform UK 21 2022: Conservative 51 · Plaid Cymru 49; won by Conservative
    29. Tremeirchion1 seat Independent 56% chance Independent 42 · Conservative 24 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 57 · Conservative 43; won by Independent

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

    Every Welsh council

    You may also like

    Local elections, May 2027 215 English councils, ward by ward Seats All 650 constituencies: results, projections and seats at risk Map Every seat on a hex or real map, under any reading of the polls By-elections What the polls imply, and how by-elections differ