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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Bridgend

Bridgend: independents would keep a majority between them

Bridgend (Pen-y-bont ar Ogwr) elects all 51 councillors in 28 wards on 6 May 2027; 26 make a majority. In 2022: Labour 27, Independent 21, Plaid Cymru 2, Conservative 1.

The council after 6 May, our projection

Independent +10
31 seats · 0–40 in 80% of runs · 2022: 21 Control 53%
+14
14 seats · 5–42 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 36%
Plaid Cymru ±0
2 seats · 2–11 in 80% of runs · 2022: 2 Control 1%
−25
2 seats · 1–7 in 80% of runs · 2022: 27 Control 0%
+1
2 seats · 0–6 in 80% of runs · 2022: 1 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (26 of 51). No overall control in 11% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

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What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Bridgend

    Bridgend (Pen-y-bont ar Ogwr) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 51 councillors in 28 wards. It had 145,490 residents at the 2021 census. 94.7% of residents are white British, more than the 74.4% across England and Wales; 13.9% of households rent social housing, fewer than the 17.2% nationally.

    At the last election, in May 2022, Labour won 27 seats, independents 21 and Plaid Cymru 2. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model gives independents a majority, with 31 of 51 seats.

    Ward by ward

    1. Aberkenfig1 seat Plaid Cymru 78% chance Plaid Cymru 54 · Reform UK 22 · Independent 15 2022: Plaid Cymru 54 · Labour 29 · Independent 17; won by Plaid Cymru
    2. Blackmill1 seat Independent 54% chance Independent 32 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 20 2022: Labour 55 · Independent 34 · Conservative 11; won by Labour
    3. Brackla East and Coychurch Lower2 seats Conservative Reform UK 28% chance Conservative 28 · Reform UK 27 · Independent 21 2022: Labour 38 · Conservative 36 · Independent 19; won by 2 Labour
    4. Brackla East Central1 seat Independent 52% chance Independent 30 · Reform UK 27 · Conservative 22 2022: Labour 36 · Conservative 30 · Independent 29; won by Labour
    5. Brackla West1 seat Independent 54% chance Independent 30 · Reform UK 24 · Conservative 18 2022: Labour 39 · Independent 32 · Conservative 29; won by Labour
    6. Brackla West Central1 seat Reform UK 28% chance Reform UK 24 · Conservative 22 · Independent 19 2022: Labour 47 · Conservative 33 · Independent 20; won by Labour
    7. Bridgend Central3 seats 3 Independent 57% chance Independent 40 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 45 · Labour 43 · Conservative 12; won by 2 Independent, Labour
    8. Bryntirion, Laleston and Merthyr Mawr3 seats 2 Independent Reform UK 37% chance Independent 35 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Independent 36 · Labour 27 · Conservative 16; won by 2 Independent, Labour
    9. Caerau2 seats Independent Reform UK 50% chance Independent 46 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 15 2022: Independent 47 · Labour 40 · Plaid Cymru 10; won by Independent, Labour
    10. Cefn-glas2 seats Independent Reform UK 29% chance Independent 42 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 47 · Labour 40 · Conservative 13; won by Independent, Labour
    11. Coity Higher3 seats 3 Independent 57% chance Independent 43 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 49 · Labour 35 · Conservative 16; won by 3 Independent
    12. Cornelly3 seats 2 Independent Reform UK 38% chance Independent 39 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 44 · Independent 43 · Conservative 13; won by 2 Labour, Independent
    13. Garw Valley3 seats Independent 2 Reform UK 18% chance Independent 31 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 20 2022: Labour 57 · Independent 32 · Conservative 11; won by 3 Labour
    14. Llangynwyd1 seat Plaid Cymru 98% chance Plaid Cymru 47 · Green 21 · Reform UK 20 2022: Plaid Cymru 51 · Labour 42 · Green 7; won by Plaid Cymru
    15. Maesteg East2 seats 2 Independent 55% chance Independent 38 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Labour 48 · Independent 37 · Plaid Cymru 12; won by Labour, Independent
    16. Maesteg West2 seats Independent Reform UK 31% chance Independent 56 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Independent 63 · Labour 26 · Plaid Cymru 10; won by Independent, Labour
    17. Nant-y-moel1 seat Labour 87% chance Labour 39 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 83 · Conservative 17; won by Labour
    18. Newton1 seat Conservative 43% chance Conservative 30 · Reform UK 23 · Independent 22 2022: Conservative 44 · Labour 31 · Independent 25; won by Conservative
    19. Nottage1 seat Independent 54% chance Independent 32 · Reform UK 22 · Conservative 22 2022: Independent 37 · Conservative 35 · Labour 28; won by Independent
    20. Ogmore Vale1 seat Independent 59% chance Independent 47 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 12 2022: Independent 50 · Labour 39 · Plaid Cymru 5; won by Independent
    21. Oldcastle2 seats 2 Independent 57% chance Independent 41 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 47 · Labour 36 · Conservative 17; won by 2 Independent
    22. Pen-y-fai1 seat Reform UK 41% chance Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 22 · Labour 19 2022: Labour 50 · Conservative 21 · Plaid Cymru 16; won by Labour
    23. Pencoed and Penprysg3 seats Independent 2 Reform UK 20% chance Independent 43 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Independent 47 · Labour 24 · Conservative 15; won by Independent, 2 Labour
    24. Porthcawl East Central2 seats 2 Independent 54% chance Independent 33 · Reform UK 24 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Labour 45 · Independent 35 · Conservative 20; won by 2 Labour
    25. Porthcawl West Central1 seat Independent 60% chance Independent 49 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 59 · Labour 26 · Conservative 15; won by Independent
    26. Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cefn Cribwr3 seats Labour 2 Reform UK 31% chance Labour 26 · Reform UK 26 · Independent 20 2022: Labour 64 · Independent 20 · Conservative 16; won by 3 Labour
    27. Rest Bay1 seat Independent 56% chance Independent 40 · Conservative 27 · Reform UK 19 2022: Independent 54 · Conservative 46; won by Independent
    28. St Bride's Minor and Ynysawdre3 seats 3 Independent 57% chance Independent 45 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 51 · Labour 41 · Conservative 8; won by 2 Independent, Labour

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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