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United Kingdom · Welsh council elections 2027 · Wrexham

Wrexham: independents would keep a majority between them

Wrexham (Wrecsam) elects all 56 councillors in 49 wards on 6 May 2027; 29 make a majority. In 2022: Independent 23, Labour 14, Plaid Cymru 9, Conservative 9, Lib Dem 1.

The council after 6 May, our projection

Independent +8
31 seats · 0–39 in 80% of runs · 2022: 23 Control 55%
Plaid Cymru +3
12 seats · 6–22 in 80% of runs · 2022: 9 Control 3%
−1
8 seats · 6–10 in 80% of runs · 2022: 9 Control 0%
+3
3 seats · 1–29 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 11%
−13
1 seats · 1–4 in 80% of runs · 2022: 14 Control 0%
±0
1 seats · 0–2 in 80% of runs · 2022: 1 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (29 of 56). No overall control in 32% of 400 simulated elections. Independents count as one only where they hold a majority between them.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About Wrexham

    Wrexham (Wrecsam) is one of Wales's 22 councils, with 56 councillors in 49 wards. It had 135,114 residents at the 2021 census. 21% of households rent from the council or a housing association, against 17.2% nationally; 90.7% of residents are white British, more than the 74.4% across England and Wales.

    At the last election, in May 2022, independents won 23 seats, Labour 14 and Plaid Cymru 9; 8 wards were uncontested. Every seat is up again on 6 May 2027.

    On today's Senedd polls our model gives independents a majority, with 31 of 56 seats.

    Ward by ward

    1. Acrefair North1 seat Independent 59% chance Independent 41 · Reform UK 23 · Labour 19 2022: Labour 55 · Independent 45; won by Labour
    2. Acton and Maesydre2 seats 2 Plaid Cymru 65% chance Plaid Cymru 36 · Reform UK 21 · Independent 18 2022: Plaid Cymru 37 · Labour 26 · Independent 22; won by Plaid Cymru, Labour
    3. Bangor Is-y-Coed1 seat Conservative 61% chance Conservative 29 · Green 24 · Lib Dem 17 2022: Conservative 53 · Lib Dem 37 · Green 10; won by Conservative
    4. Borras Park1 seat Conservative over 99% chance Conservative 67 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022, uncontested: Conservative
    5. Bronington and Hanmer1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 36 · Conservative 31 · Reform UK 19 2022: Conservative 52 · Independent 48; won by Conservative
    6. Brymbo2 seats 2 Independent 59% chance Independent 49 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 57 · Labour 43; won by Independent, Labour
    7. Bryn Cefn1 seat Conservative 92% chance Conservative 42 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 20 2022: Conservative 51 · Labour 35 · Plaid Cymru 14; won by Conservative
    8. Brynyffynnon1 seat Independent 57% chance Independent 41 · Plaid Cymru 26 · Reform UK 24 2022: Independent 44 · Labour 34 · Plaid Cymru 22; won by Independent
    9. Cartrefle1 seat Independent 64% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    10. Cefn East1 seat Independent 58% chance Independent 38 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 21 2022: Labour 59 · Independent 41; won by Labour
    11. Cefn West1 seat Independent 60% chance Independent 44 · Reform UK 23 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Labour 51 · Independent 49; won by Labour
    12. Chirk North1 seat Independent 57% chance Independent 37 · Reform UK 24 · Labour 22 2022: Labour 60 · Independent 40; won by Labour
    13. Chirk South1 seat Independent 64% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    14. Coedpoeth2 seats 2 Reform UK 41% chance Reform UK 25 · Independent 24 · Plaid Cymru 18 2022: Labour 50 · Independent 25 · Lib Dem 14; won by 2 Labour
    15. Dyffryn Ceiriog1 seat Independent 65% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    16. Erddig1 seat Conservative 34% chance Conservative 28 · Reform UK 25 · Independent 19 2022: Conservative 39 · Labour 21 · Independent 20; won by Conservative
    17. Esclusham1 seat Independent 64% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    18. Garden Village1 seat Independent 64% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    19. Gresford East and West1 seat Conservative 93% chance Conservative 46 · Plaid Cymru 33 · Reform UK 21 2022: Conservative 67 · Plaid Cymru 33; won by Conservative
    20. Grosvenor1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 65 · Reform UK 23 · Labour 7 2022: Plaid Cymru 63 · Labour 26 · Conservative 11; won by Plaid Cymru
    21. Gwenfro1 seat Independent 63% chance Independent 64 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 84 · Plaid Cymru 16; won by Independent
    22. Gwersyllt East1 seat Independent 64% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022: Independent 100; won by Independent
    23. Gwersyllt North1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 71 · Reform UK 20 · Conservative 9 2022: Plaid Cymru 81 · Conservative 19; won by Plaid Cymru
    24. Gwersyllt South1 seat Plaid Cymru 55% chance Plaid Cymru 43 · Independent 28 · Reform UK 22 2022: Plaid Cymru 42 · Independent 33 · Labour 25; won by Plaid Cymru
    25. Gwersyllt West1 seat Plaid Cymru 52% chance Plaid Cymru 38 · Independent 26 · Reform UK 23 2022: Plaid Cymru 35 · Independent 29 · Labour 27; won by Plaid Cymru
    26. Hermitage1 seat Labour 93% chance Labour 43 · Reform UK 28 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 88 · Conservative 12; won by Labour
    27. Holt1 seat Conservative over 99% chance Conservative 67 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022, uncontested: Conservative
    28. Little Acton1 seat Independent 55% chance Independent 31 · Plaid Cymru 23 · Reform UK 20 2022: Independent 29 · Labour 28 · Conservative 26; won by Independent
    29. Llangollen Rural1 seat Independent 63% chance Independent 62 · Reform UK 19 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Independent 81 · Plaid Cymru 19; won by Independent
    30. Llay2 seats Independent Reform UK 30% chance Independent 47 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 54 · Labour 36 · Conservative 11; won by Independent, Labour
    31. Marchwiel1 seat Independent 61% chance Independent 47 · Plaid Cymru 23 · Reform UK 21 2022: Independent 58 · Plaid Cymru 23 · Conservative 19; won by Independent
    32. Marford and Hoseley1 seat Lib Dem 58% chance Lib Dem 34 · Conservative 29 · Reform UK 22 2022: Lib Dem 56 · Conservative 44; won by Lib Dem
    33. Minera1 seat Independent 58% chance Independent 39 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 22 2022: Labour 42 · Independent 41 · Plaid Cymru 17; won by Labour
    34. New Broughton1 seat Independent 58% chance Independent 41 · Plaid Cymru 25 · Reform UK 23 2022: Independent 46 · Labour 26 · Plaid Cymru 21; won by Independent
    35. Offa1 seat Plaid Cymru 87% chance Plaid Cymru 33 · Reform UK 22 · Lib Dem 18 2022: Plaid Cymru 30 · Lib Dem 30 · Labour 25; won by Plaid Cymru
    36. Overton and Maelor South1 seat Independent 60% chance Independent 48 · Green 27 · Reform UK 14 2022: Independent 87 · Green 13; won by Independent
    37. Pant and Johnstown2 seats 2 Independent 62% chance Independent 55 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 66 · Labour 34; won by 2 Independent
    38. Penycae1 seat Independent 63% chance Independent 66 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 14 2022: Independent 92 · Labour 6 · Conservative 1; won by Independent
    39. Penycae and Ruabon South1 seat Plaid Cymru 43% chance Plaid Cymru 34 · Independent 34 · Reform UK 23 2022: Independent 38 · Plaid Cymru 31 · Labour 31; won by Independent
    40. Ponciau1 seat Independent 63% chance Independent 55 · Reform UK 21 · Plaid Cymru 16 2022: Independent 66 · Labour 34; won by Independent
    41. Queensway1 seat Plaid Cymru over 99% chance Plaid Cymru 71 · Reform UK 21 · Labour 6 2022: Plaid Cymru 75 · Labour 22 · Conservative 3; won by Plaid Cymru
    42. Rhos1 seat Independent 60% chance Independent 44 · Reform UK 22 · Plaid Cymru 17 2022: Independent 50 · Labour 41 · Conservative 9; won by Independent
    43. Rhosnesni2 seats Independent Plaid Cymru 30% chance Independent 39 · Plaid Cymru 26 · Reform UK 21 2022: Independent 48 · Plaid Cymru 26 · Conservative 17; won by Independent, Plaid Cymru
    44. Rossett2 seats 2 Conservative 95% chance Conservative 42 · Lib Dem 22 · Reform UK 21 2022: Conservative 61 · Lib Dem 39; won by 2 Conservative
    45. Ruabon1 seat Independent 58% chance Independent 38 · Reform UK 25 · Plaid Cymru 19 2022: Labour 39 · Independent 39 · Plaid Cymru 13; won by Labour
    46. Smithfield1 seat Plaid Cymru 75% chance Plaid Cymru 46 · Reform UK 24 · Independent 15 2022: Plaid Cymru 41 · Labour 34 · Independent 16; won by Plaid Cymru
    47. Stansty1 seat Independent 64% chance Independent 69 · Reform UK 18 · Plaid Cymru 13 2022, uncontested: Independent
    48. Whitegate1 seat Plaid Cymru 79% chance Plaid Cymru 38 · Reform UK 28 · Labour 26 2022: Labour 61 · Plaid Cymru 28 · Conservative 11; won by Labour
    49. Wynnstay1 seat Independent 54% chance Independent 30 · Reform UK 26 · Plaid Cymru 21 2022: Labour 52 · Independent 29 · Plaid Cymru 15; won by Labour

    Shares: each party's best candidate. Ward results from Democracy Club (CC BY-SA 4.0). How it works.

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