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United Kingdom · Scottish council elections 2027 · South Ayrshire

South Ayrshire: no party would have a majority, SNP largest

South Ayrshire elects all 28 councillors in 8 multi-member wards by single transferable vote on 6 May 2027; 15 make a majority. In 2022: Conservative 10, SNP 9, Labour 5, Independent 4.

The council after 6 May, our projection

SNP ±0
9 seats · 9–12 in 80% of runs · 2022: 9 Control 0%
−3
7 seats · 5–9 in 80% of runs · 2022: 10 Control 0%
+5
5 seats · 1–7 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%
Independent ±0
4 seats · 3–4 in 80% of runs · 2022: 4 Control 0%
−2
3 seats · 1–5 in 80% of runs · 2022: 5 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (15 of 28). No overall control in over 99% of 400 simulated elections.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About South Ayrshire

    South Ayrshire elects 28 councillors in 8 multi-member wards by the single transferable vote; about 92,112 people are on its electoral roll.

    In May 2022 the Conservatives won 10 seats, the SNP 9 and Labour 5. Under the single transferable vote majorities are rare, and most councils are run by coalitions or minority administrations.

    On today's Holyrood polls our model has the SNP largest on 9 of 28 seats, 6 short of a majority.

    Ward by ward

    1. Ward 1 - Troon4 seats SNP Labour Conservative Reform UK SNP 34 · Conservative 25 · Reform UK 14 2022: Conservative 37 · SNP 36 · Labour 19; elected 2 Conservative, SNP, Labour
    2. Ward 2 - Prestwick4 seats SNP Independent Conservative Reform UK SNP 31 · Independent 27 · Conservative 15 2022: SNP 35 · Conservative 25 · Independent 23; elected SNP, Independent, Conservative, Labour
    3. Ward 3 - Ayr North4 seats 2 SNP Labour Reform UK SNP 42 · Labour 17 · Reform UK 14 2022: SNP 46 · Labour 24 · Conservative 21; elected 2 SNP, Labour, Conservative
    4. Ward 4 - Ayr East3 seats SNP Conservative Reform UK SNP 36 · Conservative 19 · Independent 14 2022: SNP 39 · Conservative 30 · Labour 16; elected SNP, Conservative, Labour
    5. Ward 5 - Ayr West4 seats Conservative Independent SNP Reform UK Independent 26 · Conservative 25 · SNP 19 2022: Conservative 40 · Independent 23 · SNP 22; elected 2 Conservative, Independent, SNP
    6. Ward 6 - Kyle3 seats SNP Labour Conservative SNP 33 · Conservative 25 · Labour 17 2022: Conservative 37 · SNP 34 · Labour 23; elected SNP, Labour, Conservative
    7. Ward 7 - Maybole North Carrick and Coylton3 seats SNP Conservative Independent SNP 29 · Conservative 22 · Independent 21 2022: Conservative 35 · SNP 32 · Independent 18; elected SNP, Conservative, Independent
    8. Ward 8 - Girvan and South Carrick3 seats Independent SNP Conservative Independent 41 · SNP 21 · Conservative 16 2022: Independent 37 · Conservative 28 · SNP 25; elected Independent, SNP, Conservative

    First preferences: each party's share of the ward's first-preference votes. Results from the Electoral Management Board for Scotland. How it works.

    Every Scottish council

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