United Kingdom General electionby 15 Aug 2029in 1,017 days Majority for any party 44% Labour largest party 94% Calendar Track record Research
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United Kingdom · Scottish council elections 2027 · East Ayrshire

East Ayrshire: no party would have a majority, SNP largest

East Ayrshire elects all 32 councillors in 9 multi-member wards by single transferable vote on 6 May 2027; 17 make a majority. In 2022: SNP 14, Labour 10, Conservative 4, Independent 3, Others 1.

The council after 6 May, our projection

SNP ±0
14 seats · 11–17 in 80% of runs · 2022: 14 Control 12%
−1
9 seats · 6–11 in 80% of runs · 2022: 10 Control 0%
+5
5 seats · 0–8 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%
Independent −1
2 seats · 1–4 in 80% of runs · 2022: 3 Control 0%
−3
1 seats · 0–4 in 80% of runs · 2022: 4 Control 0%
Others ±0
1 seats · 0–1 in 80% of runs · 2022: 1 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (17 of 32). No overall control in 88% of 400 simulated elections.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About East Ayrshire

    East Ayrshire elects 32 councillors in 9 multi-member wards by the single transferable vote; about 97,147 people are on its electoral roll.

    In May 2022 the SNP won 14 seats, Labour 10 and the Conservatives 4. Under the single transferable vote majorities are rare, and most councils are run by coalitions or minority administrations.

    On today's Holyrood polls our model has the SNP largest on 14 of 32 seats, 3 short of a majority.

    Ward by ward

    1. Ward 1 - Annick4 seats Conservative SNP Independent Reform UK SNP 30 · Independent 27 · Conservative 14 2022: SNP 33 · Conservative 25 · Independent 23; elected Conservative, Labour, SNP, Independent
    2. Ward 2 - Kilmarnock North3 seats 2 SNP Labour SNP 43 · Labour 20 · Reform UK 14 2022: SNP 48 · Labour 28 · Conservative 14; elected 2 SNP, Labour
    3. Ward 3 - Kilmarnock West and Crosshouse4 seats 2 SNP Labour Reform UK SNP 37 · Labour 22 · Reform UK 15 2022: SNP 38 · Labour 28 · Conservative 22; elected 2 SNP, Labour, Conservative
    4. Ward 4 - Kilmarnock East and Hurlford4 seats 2 SNP Labour Reform UK SNP 34 · Labour 29 · Reform UK 14 2022: Labour 39 · SNP 37 · Conservative 12; elected 2 SNP, Labour, Independent
    5. Ward 5 - Kilmarnock South3 seats 2 SNP Labour SNP 50 · Labour 23 · Reform UK 14 2022: SNP 53 · Labour 31 · Conservative 12; elected 2 SNP, Labour
    6. Ward 6 - Irvine Valley3 seats SNP Labour Others SNP 37 · Others 22 · Labour 16 2022: SNP 42 · Labour 23 · Others 18; elected SNP, Labour, Others
    7. Ward 7 - Ballochmyle4 seats 2 SNP Labour Reform UK SNP 37 · Labour 25 · Reform UK 14 2022: SNP 40 · Labour 33 · Conservative 17; elected 2 SNP, Labour, Conservative
    8. Ward 8 - Cumnock and New Cumnock4 seats 2 Labour SNP Reform UK Labour 35 · SNP 34 · Reform UK 14 2022: Labour 43 · SNP 36 · Conservative 18; elected 2 Labour, SNP, Conservative
    9. Ward 9 - Doon Valley3 seats Independent Labour SNP Independent 43 · SNP 18 · Labour 15 2022: Independent 39 · Labour 23 · SNP 21; elected Independent, Labour, SNP

    First preferences: each party's share of the ward's first-preference votes. Results from the Electoral Management Board for Scotland. How it works.

    Every Scottish council

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