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United Kingdom · Scottish council elections 2027 · North Ayrshire

North Ayrshire: no party would have a majority, SNP largest

North Ayrshire elects all 33 councillors in 9 multi-member wards by single transferable vote on 6 May 2027; 17 make a majority. In 2022: SNP 12, Conservative 10, Labour 9, Independent 2.

The council after 6 May, our projection

SNP +3
15 seats · 11–17 in 80% of runs · 2022: 12 Control 17%
−1
8 seats · 6–10 in 80% of runs · 2022: 9 Control 0%
+6
6 seats · 2–8 in 80% of runs · 2022: 0 Control 0%
−8
2 seats · 2–6 in 80% of runs · 2022: 10 Control 0%
Independent ±0
2 seats · 2–3 in 80% of runs · 2022: 2 Control 0%

The line marks a majority (17 of 33). No overall control in 84% of 400 simulated elections.

Try it

What if the national vote changes? Ward by ward

Move a party's national vote share and our model reruns every ward with your figures: the same arithmetic as our projection, so you see what changes hands and why.

The sliders set each party's national figure; the parties left out keep theirs. The local picture moves with the national change since the last election, as in our projection.

    What changes hands

    1. Nothing yet: move a slider.

    About North Ayrshire

    North Ayrshire elects 33 councillors in 9 multi-member wards by the single transferable vote; about 109,300 people are on its electoral roll.

    In May 2022 the SNP won 12 seats, the Conservatives 10 and Labour 9. Under the single transferable vote majorities are rare, and most councils are run by coalitions or minority administrations.

    On today's Holyrood polls our model has the SNP largest on 15 of 33 seats, 2 short of a majority.

    Ward by ward

    1. Ward 01 - North Coast5 seats 2 SNP Independent Conservative Reform UK SNP 28 · Independent 23 · Conservative 18 2022: SNP 31 · Conservative 30 · Independent 20; elected 2 SNP, 2 Conservative, Independent
    2. Ward 02 - Garnock Valley5 seats 2 SNP Independent Conservative Reform UK Independent 32 · SNP 27 · Conservative 14 2022: SNP 31 · Independent 29 · Conservative 25; elected 2 SNP, Independent, Conservative, Labour
    3. Ward 03 - Ardrossan3 seats SNP Labour Reform UK SNP 38 · Labour 20 · Reform UK 14 2022: SNP 41 · Labour 27 · Conservative 20; elected SNP, Labour, Conservative
    4. Ward 04 - Arran1 seats SNP Independent 26 · SNP 24 · Conservative 21 2022: Conservative 32 · SNP 26 · Independent 22; elected Conservative
    5. Ward 05 - Saltcoats and Stevenston5 seats 2 SNP 2 Labour Reform UK SNP 36 · Labour 31 · Reform UK 14 2022: Labour 40 · SNP 40 · Conservative 11; elected 2 SNP, 2 Labour, Conservative
    6. Ward 06 - Kilwinning4 seats 2 Labour SNP Reform UK Labour 36 · SNP 33 · Reform UK 14 2022: Labour 46 · SNP 35 · Conservative 16; elected 2 Labour, SNP, Conservative
    7. Ward 07 - Irvine West4 seats 2 SNP Labour Reform UK SNP 38 · Labour 25 · Reform UK 14 2022: SNP 41 · Labour 33 · Conservative 20; elected 2 SNP, Conservative, Labour
    8. Ward 08 - Irvine East3 seats 2 SNP Labour SNP 43 · Labour 21 · Reform UK 14 2022: SNP 45 · Labour 27 · Conservative 20; elected SNP, Labour, Conservative
    9. Ward 09 - Irvine South3 seats 2 SNP Labour SNP 42 · Labour 25 · Reform UK 14 2022: SNP 45 · Labour 32 · Conservative 19; elected SNP, Labour, Conservative

    First preferences: each party's share of the ward's first-preference votes. Results from the Electoral Management Board for Scotland. How it works.

    Every Scottish council

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