Australia Next federal electionby 20 May 2028in 558 days Hung parliament 96% Labor majority under 1% Calendar Track record Research
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No religion or secular beliefs by division

No religion or secular beliefs in every division in Australia: highest in Kingston (55.3%), lowest in Werriwa (12.5%); the middle division is at 40.9%. Of the fifth of divisions where it is highest, our forecast has One Nation winning 14 of 30; where it is lowest, Labor wins 16 of 30.

Canberra: 50.7% Fenner: 40.1% Banks: 25.5% Barton: 27.0% Bennelong: 37.9% Berowra: 35.7% Blaxland: 15.0% Bradfield: 42.2% Calare: 32.4% Chifley: 17.6% Cook: 32.9% Cowper: 40.3% Cunningham: 38.7% Dobell: 39.2% Eden-Monaro: 40.1% Farrer: 33.2% Fowler: 15.6% Gilmore: 41.6% Grayndler: 47.0% Greenway: 20.4% Hughes: 27.3% Hume: 28.3% Hunter: 40.4% Kingsford Smith: 32.2% Lindsay: 29.9% Lyne: 36.8% Macarthur: 22.9% Mackellar: 41.9% Macquarie: 40.6% Mitchell: 27.6% New England: 31.7% Newcastle: 45.6% Page: 40.6% Parkes: 28.7% Parramatta: 24.5% Reid: 33.1% Richmond: 46.0% Robertson: 40.9% Shortland: 42.4% Sydney: 52.3% Whitlam: 37.4% Warringah: 45.8% Wentworth: 43.1% Werriwa: 12.5% Bowman: 42.5% Brisbane: 46.2% Capricornia: 36.4% Dawson: 37.1% Fadden: 43.0% Fairfax: 47.2% Fisher: 46.2% Forde: 43.2% Griffith: 45.9% Groom: 32.3% Herbert: 40.8% Hinkler: 40.9% Kennedy: 36.0% Leichhardt: 40.9% Lilley: 40.1% Maranoa: 31.7% McPherson: 44.9% Moncrieff: 41.9% Moreton: 41.1% Oxley: 35.0% Petrie: 40.0% Rankin: 36.6% Ryan: 45.6% Wide Bay: 44.8% Adelaide: 40.2% Barker: 47.5% Boothby: 47.3% Grey: 47.4% Hindmarsh: 39.7% Kingston: 55.3% Makin: 41.3% Mayo: 54.7% Sturt: 38.5% Bass: 49.2% Braddon: 51.0% Franklin: 51.2% Lyons: 48.5% Aston: 42.0% Ballarat: 48.6% Bendigo: 48.7% Bruce: 26.0% Calwell: 14.1% Casey: 53.9% Chisholm: 39.9% Corio: 43.0% Deakin: 44.0% Dunkley: 50.3% Flinders: 49.0% Gellibrand: 29.8% Gippsland: 47.6% Goldstein: 42.8% Holt: 29.6% Hotham: 32.0% Indi: 45.1% Isaacs: 33.2% Jagajaga: 44.8% Kooyong: 44.4% Lalor: 23.6% La Trobe: 39.1% Mallee: 41.0% Maribyrnong: 32.8% McEwen: 41.5% Melbourne: 52.2% Menzies: 40.8% Scullin: 19.7% Wannon: 44.5% Wills: 44.8% Brand: 48.0% Canning: 48.0% Cowan: 31.5% Curtin: 45.5% Forrest: 49.5% Fremantle: 45.6% Moore: 44.5% O'Connor: 47.2% Pearce: 46.9% Perth: 43.2% Swan: 37.6% Tangney: 37.8% Paterson: 39.5% Riverina: 30.0% Watson: 13.9% Dickson: 43.1% Longman: 46.1% Blair: 42.9% Hasluck: 39.0% Lingiari: 35.4% Solomon: 41.1% Gorton: 18.6% Bonner: 38.8% Flynn: 39.9% Durack: 42.5% McMahon: 15.7% Wright: 43.4% Burt: 37.9% Bean: 42.1% Clark: 50.3% Cooper: 46.6% Fraser: 33.5% Macnamara: 46.3% Monash: 49.6% Nicholls: 38.5% Spence: 47.5% Hawke: 36.3% Corangamite: 48.0% Bullwinkel: 46.3%
  • 12.5% – 32.3% (29)
  • 32.3% – 39.7% (30)
  • 39.7% – 42.5% (30)
  • 42.5% – 46.3% (30)
  • 46.3% – 55.3% (31)
One hexagon per division, each the same size. Grey: no figure held.

Explore it on the interactive map →

Highest: the top 15

#DivisionNo religion or secular beliefsProjected
1 Kingston 55.3%Labor
2 Mayo 54.7%Centre Alliance
3 Casey 53.9%Coalition
4 Sydney 52.3%Labor
5 Melbourne 52.2%Greens
6 Franklin 51.2%Labor
7 Braddon 51.0%One Nation
8 Canberra 50.7%Labor
9 Clark 50.3%Independent
10 Dunkley 50.3%One Nation
11 Monash 49.6%One Nation
12 Forrest 49.5%One Nation
13 Bass 49.2%Labor
14 Flinders 49.0%Coalition
15 Bendigo 48.7%One Nation

Lowest: the bottom 15

#DivisionNo religion or secular beliefsProjected
150 Werriwa 12.5%Labor
149 Watson 13.9%Labor
148 Calwell 14.1%Labor
147 Blaxland 15.0%Labor
146 Fowler 15.6%Independent
145 McMahon 15.7%One Nation
144 Chifley 17.6%Labor
143 Gorton 18.6%Labor
142 Scullin 19.7%Labor
141 Greenway 20.4%Labor
140 Macarthur 22.9%Labor
139 Lalor 23.6%Labor
138 Parramatta 24.5%Labor
137 Banks 25.5%Coalition
136 Bruce 26.0%One Nation
Every division (150), highest first
#DivisionRegionNo religion or secular beliefsProjected
1 Kingston South Australia55.3%Labor
2 Mayo South Australia54.7%Centre Alliance
3 Casey Victoria53.9%Coalition
4 Sydney New South Wales52.3%Labor
5 Melbourne Victoria52.2%Greens
6 Franklin Tasmania51.2%Labor
7 Braddon Tasmania51.0%One Nation
8 Canberra Australian Capital Territory50.7%Labor
9 Clark Tasmania50.3%Independent
10 Dunkley Victoria50.3%One Nation
11 Monash Victoria49.6%One Nation
12 Forrest Western Australia49.5%One Nation
13 Bass Tasmania49.2%Labor
14 Flinders Victoria49.0%Coalition
15 Bendigo Victoria48.7%One Nation
16 Ballarat Victoria48.6%One Nation
17 Lyons Tasmania48.5%Labor
18 Canning Western Australia48.0%One Nation
19 Brand Western Australia48.0%One Nation
20 Corangamite Victoria48.0%Labor
21 Gippsland Victoria47.6%One Nation
22 Spence South Australia47.5%One Nation
23 Barker South Australia47.5%Coalition
24 Grey South Australia47.4%One Nation
25 Boothby South Australia47.3%Labor
26 O'Connor Western Australia47.2%One Nation
27 Fairfax Queensland47.2%One Nation
28 Grayndler New South Wales47.0%Labor
29 Pearce Western Australia46.9%One Nation
30 Cooper Victoria46.6%Labor
31 Macnamara Victoria46.3%Greens
32 Bullwinkel Western Australia46.3%One Nation
33 Brisbane Queensland46.2%Labor
34 Fisher Queensland46.2%Coalition
35 Longman Queensland46.1%One Nation
36 Richmond New South Wales46.0%Greens
37 Griffith Queensland45.9%Labor
38 Warringah New South Wales45.8%Independent
39 Ryan Queensland45.6%Greens
40 Fremantle Western Australia45.6%Labor
41 Newcastle New South Wales45.6%Labor
42 Curtin Western Australia45.5%Independent
43 Indi Victoria45.1%Independent
44 McPherson Queensland44.9%One Nation
45 Wills Victoria44.8%Greens
46 Wide Bay Queensland44.8%One Nation
47 Jagajaga Victoria44.8%Labor
48 Wannon Victoria44.5%Coalition
49 Moore Western Australia44.5%One Nation
50 Kooyong Victoria44.4%Independent
51 Deakin Victoria44.0%Coalition
52 Wright Queensland43.4%One Nation
53 Forde Queensland43.2%One Nation
54 Perth Western Australia43.2%Labor
55 Wentworth New South Wales43.1%Independent
56 Dickson Queensland43.1%One Nation
57 Fadden Queensland43.0%One Nation
58 Corio Victoria43.0%One Nation
59 Blair Queensland42.9%One Nation
60 Goldstein Victoria42.8%Independent
61 Bowman Queensland42.5%One Nation
62 Durack Western Australia42.5%One Nation
63 Shortland New South Wales42.4%One Nation
64 Bradfield New South Wales42.2%Independent
65 Bean Australian Capital Territory42.1%Labor
66 Aston Victoria42.0%Coalition
67 Moncrieff Queensland41.9%Coalition
68 Mackellar New South Wales41.9%Independent
69 Gilmore New South Wales41.6%One Nation
70 McEwen Victoria41.5%One Nation
71 Makin South Australia41.3%Labor
72 Moreton Queensland41.1%Labor
73 Solomon Northern Territory41.1%One Nation
74 Mallee Victoria41.0%One Nation
75 Robertson New South Wales40.9%One Nation
76 Leichhardt Queensland40.9%One Nation
77 Hinkler Queensland40.9%One Nation
78 Menzies Victoria40.8%Coalition
79 Herbert Queensland40.8%Coalition
80 Macquarie New South Wales40.6%One Nation
81 Page New South Wales40.6%Coalition
82 Hunter New South Wales40.4%One Nation
83 Cowper New South Wales40.3%One Nation
84 Adelaide South Australia40.2%Labor
85 Fenner Australian Capital Territory40.1%Labor
86 Eden-Monaro New South Wales40.1%One Nation
87 Lilley Queensland40.1%Labor
88 Petrie Queensland40.0%One Nation
89 Chisholm Victoria39.9%Labor
90 Flynn Queensland39.9%One Nation
91 Hindmarsh South Australia39.7%Labor
92 Paterson New South Wales39.5%One Nation
93 Dobell New South Wales39.2%One Nation
94 La Trobe Victoria39.1%One Nation
95 Hasluck Western Australia39.0%Labor
96 Bonner Queensland38.8%Labor
97 Cunningham New South Wales38.7%Labor
98 Nicholls Victoria38.5%One Nation
99 Sturt South Australia38.5%Labor
100 Burt Western Australia37.9%One Nation
101 Bennelong New South Wales37.9%Labor
102 Tangney Western Australia37.8%Labor
103 Swan Western Australia37.6%Labor
104 Whitlam New South Wales37.4%One Nation
105 Dawson Queensland37.1%One Nation
106 Lyne New South Wales36.8%One Nation
107 Rankin Queensland36.6%Labor
108 Capricornia Queensland36.4%One Nation
109 Hawke Victoria36.3%One Nation
110 Kennedy Queensland36.0%One Nation
111 Berowra New South Wales35.7%Coalition
112 Lingiari Northern Territory35.4%One Nation
113 Oxley Queensland35.0%Labor
114 Fraser Victoria33.5%Labor
115 Isaacs Victoria33.2%Labor
116 Farrer New South Wales33.2%One Nation
117 Reid New South Wales33.1%Labor
118 Cook New South Wales32.9%Coalition
119 Maribyrnong Victoria32.8%Labor
120 Calare New South Wales32.4%One Nation
121 Groom Queensland32.3%One Nation
122 Kingsford Smith New South Wales32.2%Labor
123 Hotham Victoria32.0%Labor
124 New England New South Wales31.7%One Nation
125 Maranoa Queensland31.7%One Nation
126 Cowan Western Australia31.5%Labor
127 Riverina New South Wales30.0%One Nation
128 Lindsay New South Wales29.9%One Nation
129 Gellibrand Victoria29.8%Labor
130 Holt Victoria29.6%One Nation
131 Parkes New South Wales28.7%One Nation
132 Hume New South Wales28.3%Coalition
133 Mitchell New South Wales27.6%Coalition
134 Hughes New South Wales27.3%One Nation
135 Barton New South Wales27.0%Labor
136 Bruce Victoria26.0%One Nation
137 Banks New South Wales25.5%Coalition
138 Parramatta New South Wales24.5%Labor
139 Lalor Victoria23.6%Labor
140 Macarthur New South Wales22.9%Labor
141 Greenway New South Wales20.4%Labor
142 Scullin Victoria19.7%Labor
143 Gorton Victoria18.6%Labor
144 Chifley New South Wales17.6%Labor
145 McMahon New South Wales15.7%One Nation
146 Fowler New South Wales15.6%Independent
147 Blaxland New South Wales15.0%Labor
148 Calwell Victoria14.1%Labor
149 Watson New South Wales13.9%Labor
150 Werriwa New South Wales12.5%Labor