Australia Next federal electionby 20 May 2028in 558 days Hung parliament 96% Labor majority under 1% Calendar Track record Research
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Australian citizen by division

Australian citizen in every division in Australia: highest in Shortland (92.8%), lowest in Melbourne (62.3%); the middle division is at 85.5%. Of the fifth of divisions where it is highest, our forecast has One Nation winning 16 of 30; where it is lowest, Labor wins 21 of 30.

Canberra: 83.9% Fenner: 84.2% Banks: 84.3% Barton: 73.3% Bennelong: 77.4% Berowra: 83.0% Blaxland: 70.1% Bradfield: 81.8% Calare: 88.8% Chifley: 79.2% Cook: 90.5% Cowper: 89.0% Cunningham: 88.1% Dobell: 90.2% Eden-Monaro: 88.9% Farrer: 86.6% Fowler: 78.3% Gilmore: 89.9% Grayndler: 83.3% Greenway: 81.1% Hughes: 88.8% Hume: 91.3% Hunter: 91.4% Kingsford Smith: 75.2% Lindsay: 85.8% Lyne: 91.6% Macarthur: 85.6% Mackellar: 87.6% Macquarie: 91.7% Mitchell: 84.9% New England: 87.2% Newcastle: 89.1% Page: 89.3% Parkes: 85.5% Parramatta: 67.8% Reid: 69.3% Richmond: 87.0% Robertson: 89.1% Shortland: 92.8% Sydney: 66.7% Whitlam: 90.7% Warringah: 82.9% Wentworth: 79.1% Werriwa: 85.0% Bowman: 88.9% Brisbane: 79.6% Capricornia: 85.3% Dawson: 84.5% Fadden: 79.7% Fairfax: 86.9% Fisher: 86.8% Forde: 80.2% Griffith: 81.3% Groom: 88.1% Herbert: 86.8% Hinkler: 88.9% Kennedy: 84.8% Leichhardt: 82.3% Lilley: 86.0% Maranoa: 87.4% McPherson: 84.7% Moncrieff: 76.5% Moreton: 78.8% Oxley: 79.7% Petrie: 84.7% Rankin: 76.6% Ryan: 85.5% Wide Bay: 88.4% Adelaide: 78.6% Barker: 88.8% Boothby: 87.3% Grey: 89.2% Hindmarsh: 88.1% Kingston: 90.6% Makin: 87.3% Mayo: 91.7% Sturt: 83.4% Bass: 87.7% Braddon: 90.4% Franklin: 88.2% Lyons: 90.7% Aston: 86.0% Ballarat: 90.3% Bendigo: 89.8% Bruce: 80.0% Calwell: 77.1% Casey: 90.7% Chisholm: 78.1% Corio: 86.8% Deakin: 84.4% Dunkley: 87.7% Flinders: 89.8% Gellibrand: 74.8% Gippsland: 88.1% Goldstein: 86.2% Holt: 78.7% Hotham: 73.3% Indi: 89.9% Isaacs: 82.0% Jagajaga: 89.1% Kooyong: 83.9% Lalor: 73.7% La Trobe: 83.8% Mallee: 86.5% Maribyrnong: 86.0% McEwen: 88.5% Melbourne: 62.3% Menzies: 78.3% Scullin: 81.0% Wannon: 89.1% Wills: 82.7% Brand: 82.3% Canning: 86.2% Cowan: 82.7% Curtin: 84.4% Forrest: 86.9% Fremantle: 85.3% Moore: 89.0% O'Connor: 83.0% Pearce: 83.6% Perth: 78.7% Swan: 74.1% Tangney: 83.4% Paterson: 92.1% Riverina: 89.2% Watson: 75.6% Dickson: 89.9% Longman: 86.8% Blair: 86.2% Hasluck: 84.1% Lingiari: 82.8% Solomon: 77.1% Gorton: 81.7% Bonner: 85.0% Flynn: 86.1% Durack: 79.2% McMahon: 79.8% Wright: 87.0% Burt: 80.7% Bean: 89.5% Clark: 80.1% Cooper: 84.1% Fraser: 76.5% Macnamara: 74.9% Monash: 89.5% Nicholls: 86.8% Spence: 86.8% Hawke: 85.1% Corangamite: 90.1% Bullwinkel: 86.7%
  • 62.3% – 79.6% (29)
  • 79.6% – 84.1% (30)
  • 84.1% – 86.8% (29)
  • 86.8% – 89.0% (31)
  • 89.0% – 92.8% (31)
One hexagon per division, each the same size. Grey: no figure held.

Explore it on the interactive map →

Highest: the top 15

#DivisionAustralian citizenProjected
1 Shortland 92.8%One Nation
2 Paterson 92.1%One Nation
3 Macquarie 91.7%One Nation
4 Mayo 91.7%Centre Alliance
5 Lyne 91.6%One Nation
6 Hunter 91.4%One Nation
7 Hume 91.3%Coalition
8 Whitlam 90.7%One Nation
9 Casey 90.7%Coalition
10 Lyons 90.7%Labor
11 Kingston 90.6%Labor
12 Cook 90.5%Coalition
13 Braddon 90.4%One Nation
14 Ballarat 90.3%One Nation
15 Dobell 90.2%One Nation

Lowest: the bottom 15

#DivisionAustralian citizenProjected
150 Melbourne 62.3%Greens
149 Sydney 66.7%Labor
148 Parramatta 67.8%Labor
147 Reid 69.3%Labor
146 Blaxland 70.1%Labor
145 Barton 73.3%Labor
144 Hotham 73.3%Labor
143 Lalor 73.7%Labor
142 Swan 74.1%Labor
141 Gellibrand 74.8%Labor
140 Macnamara 74.9%Greens
139 Kingsford Smith 75.2%Labor
138 Watson 75.6%Labor
137 Fraser 76.5%Labor
136 Moncrieff 76.5%Coalition
Every division (150), highest first
#DivisionRegionAustralian citizenProjected
1 Shortland New South Wales92.8%One Nation
2 Paterson New South Wales92.1%One Nation
3 Macquarie New South Wales91.7%One Nation
4 Mayo South Australia91.7%Centre Alliance
5 Lyne New South Wales91.6%One Nation
6 Hunter New South Wales91.4%One Nation
7 Hume New South Wales91.3%Coalition
8 Whitlam New South Wales90.7%One Nation
9 Casey Victoria90.7%Coalition
10 Lyons Tasmania90.7%Labor
11 Kingston South Australia90.6%Labor
12 Cook New South Wales90.5%Coalition
13 Braddon Tasmania90.4%One Nation
14 Ballarat Victoria90.3%One Nation
15 Dobell New South Wales90.2%One Nation
16 Corangamite Victoria90.1%Labor
17 Gilmore New South Wales89.9%One Nation
18 Indi Victoria89.9%Independent
19 Dickson Queensland89.9%One Nation
20 Bendigo Victoria89.8%One Nation
21 Flinders Victoria89.8%Coalition
22 Monash Victoria89.5%One Nation
23 Bean Australian Capital Territory89.5%Labor
24 Page New South Wales89.3%Coalition
25 Grey South Australia89.2%One Nation
26 Riverina New South Wales89.2%One Nation
27 Jagajaga Victoria89.1%Labor
28 Wannon Victoria89.1%Coalition
29 Newcastle New South Wales89.1%Labor
30 Robertson New South Wales89.1%One Nation
31 Moore Western Australia89.0%One Nation
32 Cowper New South Wales89.0%One Nation
33 Eden-Monaro New South Wales88.9%One Nation
34 Bowman Queensland88.9%One Nation
35 Hinkler Queensland88.9%One Nation
36 Calare New South Wales88.8%One Nation
37 Barker South Australia88.8%Coalition
38 Hughes New South Wales88.8%One Nation
39 McEwen Victoria88.5%One Nation
40 Wide Bay Queensland88.4%One Nation
41 Franklin Tasmania88.2%Labor
42 Cunningham New South Wales88.1%Labor
43 Hindmarsh South Australia88.1%Labor
44 Gippsland Victoria88.1%One Nation
45 Groom Queensland88.1%One Nation
46 Dunkley Victoria87.7%One Nation
47 Bass Tasmania87.7%Labor
48 Mackellar New South Wales87.6%Independent
49 Maranoa Queensland87.4%One Nation
50 Boothby South Australia87.3%Labor
51 Makin South Australia87.3%Labor
52 New England New South Wales87.2%One Nation
53 Richmond New South Wales87.0%Greens
54 Wright Queensland87.0%One Nation
55 Forrest Western Australia86.9%One Nation
56 Fairfax Queensland86.9%One Nation
57 Corio Victoria86.8%One Nation
58 Fisher Queensland86.8%Coalition
59 Herbert Queensland86.8%Coalition
60 Spence South Australia86.8%One Nation
61 Longman Queensland86.8%One Nation
62 Nicholls Victoria86.8%One Nation
63 Bullwinkel Western Australia86.7%One Nation
64 Farrer New South Wales86.6%One Nation
65 Mallee Victoria86.5%One Nation
66 Goldstein Victoria86.2%Independent
67 Canning Western Australia86.2%One Nation
68 Blair Queensland86.2%One Nation
69 Flynn Queensland86.1%One Nation
70 Lilley Queensland86.0%Labor
71 Aston Victoria86.0%Coalition
72 Maribyrnong Victoria86.0%Labor
73 Lindsay New South Wales85.8%One Nation
74 Macarthur New South Wales85.6%Labor
75 Parkes New South Wales85.5%One Nation
76 Ryan Queensland85.5%Greens
77 Capricornia Queensland85.3%One Nation
78 Fremantle Western Australia85.3%Labor
79 Hawke Victoria85.1%One Nation
80 Werriwa New South Wales85.0%Labor
81 Bonner Queensland85.0%Labor
82 Mitchell New South Wales84.9%Coalition
83 Kennedy Queensland84.8%One Nation
84 McPherson Queensland84.7%One Nation
85 Petrie Queensland84.7%One Nation
86 Dawson Queensland84.5%One Nation
87 Deakin Victoria84.4%Coalition
88 Curtin Western Australia84.4%Independent
89 Banks New South Wales84.3%Coalition
90 Fenner Australian Capital Territory84.2%Labor
91 Hasluck Western Australia84.1%Labor
92 Cooper Victoria84.1%Labor
93 Kooyong Victoria83.9%Independent
94 Canberra Australian Capital Territory83.9%Labor
95 La Trobe Victoria83.8%One Nation
96 Pearce Western Australia83.6%One Nation
97 Sturt South Australia83.4%Labor
98 Tangney Western Australia83.4%Labor
99 Grayndler New South Wales83.3%Labor
100 Berowra New South Wales83.0%Coalition
101 O'Connor Western Australia83.0%One Nation
102 Warringah New South Wales82.9%Independent
103 Lingiari Northern Territory82.8%One Nation
104 Wills Victoria82.7%Greens
105 Cowan Western Australia82.7%Labor
106 Leichhardt Queensland82.3%One Nation
107 Brand Western Australia82.3%One Nation
108 Isaacs Victoria82.0%Labor
109 Bradfield New South Wales81.8%Independent
110 Gorton Victoria81.7%Labor
111 Griffith Queensland81.3%Labor
112 Greenway New South Wales81.1%Labor
113 Scullin Victoria81.0%Labor
114 Burt Western Australia80.7%One Nation
115 Forde Queensland80.2%One Nation
116 Clark Tasmania80.1%Independent
117 Bruce Victoria80.0%One Nation
118 McMahon New South Wales79.8%One Nation
119 Fadden Queensland79.7%One Nation
120 Oxley Queensland79.7%Labor
121 Brisbane Queensland79.6%Labor
122 Durack Western Australia79.2%One Nation
123 Chifley New South Wales79.2%Labor
124 Wentworth New South Wales79.1%Independent
125 Moreton Queensland78.8%Labor
126 Holt Victoria78.7%One Nation
127 Perth Western Australia78.7%Labor
128 Adelaide South Australia78.6%Labor
129 Fowler New South Wales78.3%Independent
130 Menzies Victoria78.3%Coalition
131 Chisholm Victoria78.1%Labor
132 Bennelong New South Wales77.4%Labor
133 Calwell Victoria77.1%Labor
134 Solomon Northern Territory77.1%One Nation
135 Rankin Queensland76.6%Labor
136 Moncrieff Queensland76.5%Coalition
137 Fraser Victoria76.5%Labor
138 Watson New South Wales75.6%Labor
139 Kingsford Smith New South Wales75.2%Labor
140 Macnamara Victoria74.9%Greens
141 Gellibrand Victoria74.8%Labor
142 Swan Western Australia74.1%Labor
143 Lalor Victoria73.7%Labor
144 Hotham Victoria73.3%Labor
145 Barton New South Wales73.3%Labor
146 Blaxland New South Wales70.1%Labor
147 Reid New South Wales69.3%Labor
148 Parramatta New South Wales67.8%Labor
149 Sydney New South Wales66.7%Labor
150 Melbourne Victoria62.3%Greens