Australia Next federal electionby 20 May 2028in 558 days Hung parliament 96% Labor majority under 1% Calendar Track record Research
PollingForecast.com Australia
Closest

Census map · Australia

Certificate (I-IV, nfd) by division

Certificate (I-IV, nfd) in every division in Australia: highest in Hunter (29.0%), lowest in Kooyong (6.8%); the middle division is at 20.9%. Of the fifth of divisions where it is highest, our forecast has One Nation winning 26 of 30; where it is lowest, Labor wins 17 of 30.

Canberra: 8.4% Fenner: 14.9% Banks: 15.6% Barton: 12.0% Bennelong: 10.0% Berowra: 13.0% Blaxland: 11.3% Bradfield: 7.1% Calare: 25.0% Chifley: 15.5% Cook: 20.6% Cowper: 24.6% Cunningham: 21.2% Dobell: 26.1% Eden-Monaro: 23.2% Farrer: 23.0% Fowler: 13.2% Gilmore: 25.7% Grayndler: 10.7% Greenway: 15.2% Hughes: 20.6% Hume: 26.1% Hunter: 29.0% Kingsford Smith: 12.9% Lindsay: 22.9% Lyne: 26.9% Macarthur: 20.6% Mackellar: 17.3% Macquarie: 24.0% Mitchell: 13.5% New England: 23.8% Newcastle: 20.1% Page: 24.6% Parkes: 22.4% Parramatta: 10.4% Reid: 9.7% Richmond: 21.9% Robertson: 22.7% Shortland: 26.3% Sydney: 7.9% Whitlam: 26.4% Warringah: 9.5% Wentworth: 8.1% Werriwa: 15.7% Bowman: 25.6% Brisbane: 12.0% Capricornia: 25.6% Dawson: 25.7% Fadden: 23.4% Fairfax: 23.9% Fisher: 24.4% Forde: 25.7% Griffith: 13.0% Groom: 23.5% Herbert: 24.1% Hinkler: 25.6% Kennedy: 24.4% Leichhardt: 23.3% Lilley: 18.7% Maranoa: 23.5% McPherson: 21.7% Moncrieff: 19.6% Moreton: 13.5% Oxley: 19.2% Petrie: 23.2% Rankin: 20.8% Ryan: 11.9% Wide Bay: 25.2% Adelaide: 13.4% Barker: 24.5% Boothby: 16.4% Grey: 24.2% Hindmarsh: 20.0% Kingston: 26.9% Makin: 22.7% Mayo: 23.3% Sturt: 13.6% Bass: 22.2% Braddon: 25.8% Franklin: 20.9% Lyons: 25.1% Aston: 18.6% Ballarat: 21.6% Bendigo: 21.7% Bruce: 17.4% Calwell: 15.1% Casey: 24.3% Chisholm: 8.8% Corio: 20.2% Deakin: 15.1% Dunkley: 22.9% Flinders: 21.6% Gellibrand: 13.2% Gippsland: 24.6% Goldstein: 10.3% Holt: 20.2% Hotham: 11.1% Indi: 24.3% Isaacs: 14.6% Jagajaga: 15.0% Kooyong: 6.8% Lalor: 16.9% La Trobe: 22.0% Mallee: 22.0% Maribyrnong: 13.7% McEwen: 22.3% Melbourne: 6.9% Menzies: 10.2% Scullin: 15.9% Wannon: 22.3% Wills: 10.6% Brand: 27.4% Canning: 27.3% Cowan: 20.1% Curtin: 10.2% Forrest: 26.9% Fremantle: 20.4% Moore: 20.6% O'Connor: 23.8% Pearce: 26.2% Perth: 14.0% Swan: 15.6% Tangney: 14.7% Paterson: 28.1% Riverina: 23.6% Watson: 11.8% Dickson: 23.7% Longman: 27.6% Blair: 26.4% Hasluck: 23.1% Lingiari: 18.7% Solomon: 19.9% Gorton: 16.1% Bonner: 17.8% Flynn: 27.1% Durack: 24.2% McMahon: 16.3% Wright: 26.8% Burt: 23.3% Bean: 16.5% Clark: 15.6% Cooper: 11.3% Fraser: 12.2% Macnamara: 9.1% Monash: 24.6% Nicholls: 22.5% Spence: 24.5% Hawke: 23.0% Corangamite: 21.0% Bullwinkel: 24.7%
  • 6.8% – 13.2% (29)
  • 13.2% – 18.7% (30)
  • 18.7% – 22.7% (30)
  • 22.7% – 24.6% (30)
  • 24.6% – 29.0% (31)
One hexagon per division, each the same size. Grey: no figure held.

Explore it on the interactive map →

Highest: the top 15

#DivisionCertificate (I-IV, nfd)Projected
1 Hunter 29.0%One Nation
2 Paterson 28.1%One Nation
3 Longman 27.6%One Nation
4 Brand 27.4%One Nation
5 Canning 27.3%One Nation
6 Flynn 27.1%One Nation
7 Forrest 26.9%One Nation
8 Lyne 26.9%One Nation
9 Kingston 26.9%Labor
10 Wright 26.8%One Nation
11 Whitlam 26.4%One Nation
12 Blair 26.4%One Nation
13 Shortland 26.3%One Nation
14 Pearce 26.2%One Nation
15 Hume 26.1%Coalition

Lowest: the bottom 15

#DivisionCertificate (I-IV, nfd)Projected
150 Kooyong 6.8%Independent
149 Melbourne 6.9%Greens
148 Bradfield 7.1%Independent
147 Sydney 7.9%Labor
146 Wentworth 8.1%Independent
145 Canberra 8.4%Labor
144 Chisholm 8.8%Labor
143 Macnamara 9.1%Greens
142 Warringah 9.5%Independent
141 Reid 9.7%Labor
140 Bennelong 10.0%Labor
139 Menzies 10.2%Coalition
138 Curtin 10.2%Independent
137 Goldstein 10.3%Independent
136 Parramatta 10.4%Labor
Every division (150), highest first
#DivisionRegionCertificate (I-IV, nfd)Projected
1 Hunter New South Wales29.0%One Nation
2 Paterson New South Wales28.1%One Nation
3 Longman Queensland27.6%One Nation
4 Brand Western Australia27.4%One Nation
5 Canning Western Australia27.3%One Nation
6 Flynn Queensland27.1%One Nation
7 Forrest Western Australia26.9%One Nation
8 Lyne New South Wales26.9%One Nation
9 Kingston South Australia26.9%Labor
10 Wright Queensland26.8%One Nation
11 Whitlam New South Wales26.4%One Nation
12 Blair Queensland26.4%One Nation
13 Shortland New South Wales26.3%One Nation
14 Pearce Western Australia26.2%One Nation
15 Hume New South Wales26.1%Coalition
16 Dobell New South Wales26.1%One Nation
17 Braddon Tasmania25.8%One Nation
18 Gilmore New South Wales25.7%One Nation
19 Forde Queensland25.7%One Nation
20 Dawson Queensland25.7%One Nation
21 Capricornia Queensland25.6%One Nation
22 Bowman Queensland25.6%One Nation
23 Hinkler Queensland25.6%One Nation
24 Wide Bay Queensland25.2%One Nation
25 Lyons Tasmania25.1%Labor
26 Calare New South Wales25.0%One Nation
27 Bullwinkel Western Australia24.7%One Nation
28 Cowper New South Wales24.6%One Nation
29 Monash Victoria24.6%One Nation
30 Page New South Wales24.6%Coalition
31 Gippsland Victoria24.6%One Nation
32 Spence South Australia24.5%One Nation
33 Barker South Australia24.5%Coalition
34 Fisher Queensland24.4%Coalition
35 Kennedy Queensland24.4%One Nation
36 Indi Victoria24.3%Independent
37 Casey Victoria24.3%Coalition
38 Grey South Australia24.2%One Nation
39 Durack Western Australia24.2%One Nation
40 Herbert Queensland24.1%Coalition
41 Macquarie New South Wales24.0%One Nation
42 Fairfax Queensland23.9%One Nation
43 O'Connor Western Australia23.8%One Nation
44 New England New South Wales23.8%One Nation
45 Dickson Queensland23.7%One Nation
46 Riverina New South Wales23.6%One Nation
47 Maranoa Queensland23.5%One Nation
48 Groom Queensland23.5%One Nation
49 Fadden Queensland23.4%One Nation
50 Burt Western Australia23.3%One Nation
51 Leichhardt Queensland23.3%One Nation
52 Mayo South Australia23.3%Centre Alliance
53 Petrie Queensland23.2%One Nation
54 Eden-Monaro New South Wales23.2%One Nation
55 Hasluck Western Australia23.1%Labor
56 Hawke Victoria23.0%One Nation
57 Farrer New South Wales23.0%One Nation
58 Lindsay New South Wales22.9%One Nation
59 Dunkley Victoria22.9%One Nation
60 Robertson New South Wales22.7%One Nation
61 Makin South Australia22.7%Labor
62 Nicholls Victoria22.5%One Nation
63 Parkes New South Wales22.4%One Nation
64 Wannon Victoria22.3%Coalition
65 McEwen Victoria22.3%One Nation
66 Bass Tasmania22.2%Labor
67 Mallee Victoria22.0%One Nation
68 La Trobe Victoria22.0%One Nation
69 Richmond New South Wales21.9%Greens
70 Bendigo Victoria21.7%One Nation
71 McPherson Queensland21.7%One Nation
72 Ballarat Victoria21.6%One Nation
73 Flinders Victoria21.6%Coalition
74 Cunningham New South Wales21.2%Labor
75 Corangamite Victoria21.0%Labor
76 Franklin Tasmania20.9%Labor
77 Rankin Queensland20.8%Labor
78 Hughes New South Wales20.6%One Nation
79 Moore Western Australia20.6%One Nation
80 Cook New South Wales20.6%Coalition
81 Macarthur New South Wales20.6%Labor
82 Fremantle Western Australia20.4%Labor
83 Holt Victoria20.2%One Nation
84 Corio Victoria20.2%One Nation
85 Newcastle New South Wales20.1%Labor
86 Cowan Western Australia20.1%Labor
87 Hindmarsh South Australia20.0%Labor
88 Solomon Northern Territory19.9%One Nation
89 Moncrieff Queensland19.6%Coalition
90 Oxley Queensland19.2%Labor
91 Lingiari Northern Territory18.7%One Nation
92 Lilley Queensland18.7%Labor
93 Aston Victoria18.6%Coalition
94 Bonner Queensland17.8%Labor
95 Bruce Victoria17.4%One Nation
96 Mackellar New South Wales17.3%Independent
97 Lalor Victoria16.9%Labor
98 Bean Australian Capital Territory16.5%Labor
99 Boothby South Australia16.4%Labor
100 McMahon New South Wales16.3%One Nation
101 Gorton Victoria16.1%Labor
102 Scullin Victoria15.9%Labor
103 Werriwa New South Wales15.7%Labor
104 Swan Western Australia15.6%Labor
105 Banks New South Wales15.6%Coalition
106 Clark Tasmania15.6%Independent
107 Chifley New South Wales15.5%Labor
108 Greenway New South Wales15.2%Labor
109 Calwell Victoria15.1%Labor
110 Deakin Victoria15.1%Coalition
111 Jagajaga Victoria15.0%Labor
112 Fenner Australian Capital Territory14.9%Labor
113 Tangney Western Australia14.7%Labor
114 Isaacs Victoria14.6%Labor
115 Perth Western Australia14.0%Labor
116 Maribyrnong Victoria13.7%Labor
117 Sturt South Australia13.6%Labor
118 Moreton Queensland13.5%Labor
119 Mitchell New South Wales13.5%Coalition
120 Adelaide South Australia13.4%Labor
121 Gellibrand Victoria13.2%Labor
122 Fowler New South Wales13.2%Independent
123 Berowra New South Wales13.0%Coalition
124 Griffith Queensland13.0%Labor
125 Kingsford Smith New South Wales12.9%Labor
126 Fraser Victoria12.2%Labor
127 Barton New South Wales12.0%Labor
128 Brisbane Queensland12.0%Labor
129 Ryan Queensland11.9%Greens
130 Watson New South Wales11.8%Labor
131 Blaxland New South Wales11.3%Labor
132 Cooper Victoria11.3%Labor
133 Hotham Victoria11.1%Labor
134 Grayndler New South Wales10.7%Labor
135 Wills Victoria10.6%Greens
136 Parramatta New South Wales10.4%Labor
137 Goldstein Victoria10.3%Independent
138 Curtin Western Australia10.2%Independent
139 Menzies Victoria10.2%Coalition
140 Bennelong New South Wales10.0%Labor
141 Reid New South Wales9.7%Labor
142 Warringah New South Wales9.5%Independent
143 Macnamara Victoria9.1%Greens
144 Chisholm Victoria8.8%Labor
145 Canberra Australian Capital Territory8.4%Labor
146 Wentworth New South Wales8.1%Independent
147 Sydney New South Wales7.9%Labor
148 Bradfield New South Wales7.1%Independent
149 Melbourne Victoria6.9%Greens
150 Kooyong Victoria6.8%Independent