Australia Next federal electionby 20 May 2028in 558 days Hung parliament 96% Labor majority under 1% Calendar Track record Research
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Aged 35-54 by division

Aged 35-54 in every division in Australia: highest in Gellibrand (31.9%), lowest in Lyne (21.2%); the middle division is at 26.5%. Of the fifth of divisions where it is highest, our forecast has Labor winning 16 of 30; where it is lowest, One Nation wins 23 of 30.

Canberra: 25.6% Fenner: 29.8% Banks: 26.4% Barton: 26.5% Bennelong: 28.7% Berowra: 28.6% Blaxland: 24.8% Bradfield: 29.5% Calare: 24.1% Chifley: 27.2% Cook: 27.0% Cowper: 22.5% Cunningham: 24.9% Dobell: 24.7% Eden-Monaro: 25.1% Farrer: 23.4% Fowler: 25.4% Gilmore: 21.7% Grayndler: 30.2% Greenway: 31.9% Hughes: 27.7% Hume: 27.2% Hunter: 24.2% Kingsford Smith: 27.5% Lindsay: 27.1% Lyne: 21.2% Macarthur: 26.4% Mackellar: 27.8% Macquarie: 25.9% Mitchell: 30.3% New England: 23.1% Newcastle: 25.3% Page: 23.4% Parkes: 22.8% Parramatta: 29.3% Reid: 27.0% Richmond: 25.0% Robertson: 25.3% Shortland: 24.7% Sydney: 29.6% Whitlam: 24.3% Warringah: 30.1% Wentworth: 29.4% Werriwa: 27.0% Bowman: 26.0% Brisbane: 28.4% Capricornia: 26.2% Dawson: 26.4% Fadden: 26.4% Fairfax: 26.4% Fisher: 25.2% Forde: 26.1% Griffith: 29.2% Groom: 24.0% Herbert: 25.6% Hinkler: 21.7% Kennedy: 24.5% Leichhardt: 27.7% Lilley: 28.4% Maranoa: 23.3% McPherson: 27.4% Moncrieff: 26.0% Moreton: 27.6% Oxley: 28.0% Petrie: 27.2% Rankin: 27.1% Ryan: 27.9% Wide Bay: 23.6% Adelaide: 26.1% Barker: 24.1% Boothby: 25.5% Grey: 23.4% Hindmarsh: 26.0% Kingston: 26.1% Makin: 26.3% Mayo: 24.7% Sturt: 26.2% Bass: 24.0% Braddon: 23.5% Franklin: 25.2% Lyons: 23.9% Aston: 27.6% Ballarat: 25.1% Bendigo: 24.5% Bruce: 27.0% Calwell: 27.2% Casey: 26.8% Chisholm: 26.5% Corio: 25.7% Deakin: 28.1% Dunkley: 28.0% Flinders: 23.8% Gellibrand: 31.9% Gippsland: 22.7% Goldstein: 28.3% Holt: 28.2% Hotham: 26.6% Indi: 23.9% Isaacs: 28.2% Jagajaga: 28.0% Kooyong: 25.8% Lalor: 28.3% La Trobe: 28.3% Mallee: 22.7% Maribyrnong: 28.2% McEwen: 29.0% Melbourne: 24.5% Menzies: 26.6% Scullin: 27.5% Wannon: 23.7% Wills: 28.3% Brand: 26.9% Canning: 25.0% Cowan: 27.4% Curtin: 26.9% Forrest: 26.7% Fremantle: 28.7% Moore: 27.3% O'Connor: 25.4% Pearce: 28.6% Perth: 29.1% Swan: 26.5% Tangney: 27.7% Paterson: 24.0% Riverina: 23.3% Watson: 25.6% Dickson: 28.7% Longman: 24.4% Blair: 25.7% Hasluck: 27.8% Lingiari: 27.7% Solomon: 28.7% Gorton: 29.2% Bonner: 29.2% Flynn: 26.1% Durack: 28.3% McMahon: 26.7% Wright: 27.1% Burt: 28.1% Bean: 27.3% Clark: 24.6% Cooper: 30.0% Fraser: 28.3% Macnamara: 29.8% Monash: 22.9% Nicholls: 23.6% Spence: 24.9% Hawke: 27.2% Corangamite: 24.9% Bullwinkel: 26.5%
  • 21.2% – 24.5% (29)
  • 24.5% – 26.0% (30)
  • 26.0% – 27.1% (30)
  • 27.1% – 28.3% (30)
  • 28.3% – 31.9% (31)
One hexagon per division, each the same size. Grey: no figure held.

Explore it on the interactive map →

Highest: the top 15

#DivisionAged 35-54Projected
1 Gellibrand 31.9%Labor
2 Greenway 31.9%Labor
3 Mitchell 30.3%Coalition
4 Grayndler 30.2%Labor
5 Warringah 30.1%Independent
6 Cooper 30.0%Labor
7 Fenner 29.8%Labor
8 Macnamara 29.8%Greens
9 Sydney 29.6%Labor
10 Bradfield 29.5%Independent
11 Wentworth 29.4%Independent
12 Parramatta 29.3%Labor
13 Griffith 29.2%Labor
14 Gorton 29.2%Labor
15 Bonner 29.2%Labor

Lowest: the bottom 15

#DivisionAged 35-54Projected
150 Lyne 21.2%One Nation
149 Gilmore 21.7%One Nation
148 Hinkler 21.7%One Nation
147 Cowper 22.5%One Nation
146 Gippsland 22.7%One Nation
145 Mallee 22.7%One Nation
144 Parkes 22.8%One Nation
143 Monash 22.9%One Nation
142 New England 23.1%One Nation
141 Maranoa 23.3%One Nation
140 Riverina 23.3%One Nation
139 Page 23.4%Coalition
138 Farrer 23.4%One Nation
137 Grey 23.4%One Nation
136 Braddon 23.5%One Nation
Every division (150), highest first
#DivisionRegionAged 35-54Projected
1 Gellibrand Victoria31.9%Labor
2 Greenway New South Wales31.9%Labor
3 Mitchell New South Wales30.3%Coalition
4 Grayndler New South Wales30.2%Labor
5 Warringah New South Wales30.1%Independent
6 Cooper Victoria30.0%Labor
7 Fenner Australian Capital Territory29.8%Labor
8 Macnamara Victoria29.8%Greens
9 Sydney New South Wales29.6%Labor
10 Bradfield New South Wales29.5%Independent
11 Wentworth New South Wales29.4%Independent
12 Parramatta New South Wales29.3%Labor
13 Griffith Queensland29.2%Labor
14 Gorton Victoria29.2%Labor
15 Bonner Queensland29.2%Labor
16 Perth Western Australia29.1%Labor
17 McEwen Victoria29.0%One Nation
18 Bennelong New South Wales28.7%Labor
19 Solomon Northern Territory28.7%One Nation
20 Fremantle Western Australia28.7%Labor
21 Dickson Queensland28.7%One Nation
22 Pearce Western Australia28.6%One Nation
23 Berowra New South Wales28.6%Coalition
24 Brisbane Queensland28.4%Labor
25 Lilley Queensland28.4%Labor
26 Goldstein Victoria28.3%Independent
27 Durack Western Australia28.3%One Nation
28 La Trobe Victoria28.3%One Nation
29 Wills Victoria28.3%Greens
30 Fraser Victoria28.3%Labor
31 Lalor Victoria28.3%Labor
32 Isaacs Victoria28.2%Labor
33 Holt Victoria28.2%One Nation
34 Maribyrnong Victoria28.2%Labor
35 Burt Western Australia28.1%One Nation
36 Deakin Victoria28.1%Coalition
37 Dunkley Victoria28.0%One Nation
38 Oxley Queensland28.0%Labor
39 Jagajaga Victoria28.0%Labor
40 Ryan Queensland27.9%Greens
41 Hasluck Western Australia27.8%Labor
42 Mackellar New South Wales27.8%Independent
43 Lingiari Northern Territory27.7%One Nation
44 Hughes New South Wales27.7%One Nation
45 Leichhardt Queensland27.7%One Nation
46 Tangney Western Australia27.7%Labor
47 Moreton Queensland27.6%Labor
48 Aston Victoria27.6%Coalition
49 Kingsford Smith New South Wales27.5%Labor
50 Scullin Victoria27.5%Labor
51 Cowan Western Australia27.4%Labor
52 McPherson Queensland27.4%One Nation
53 Moore Western Australia27.3%One Nation
54 Bean Australian Capital Territory27.3%Labor
55 Chifley New South Wales27.2%Labor
56 Petrie Queensland27.2%One Nation
57 Hawke Victoria27.2%One Nation
58 Calwell Victoria27.2%Labor
59 Hume New South Wales27.2%Coalition
60 Wright Queensland27.1%One Nation
61 Lindsay New South Wales27.1%One Nation
62 Rankin Queensland27.1%Labor
63 Cook New South Wales27.0%Coalition
64 Werriwa New South Wales27.0%Labor
65 Reid New South Wales27.0%Labor
66 Bruce Victoria27.0%One Nation
67 Curtin Western Australia26.9%Independent
68 Brand Western Australia26.9%One Nation
69 Casey Victoria26.8%Coalition
70 McMahon New South Wales26.7%One Nation
71 Forrest Western Australia26.7%One Nation
72 Menzies Victoria26.6%Coalition
73 Hotham Victoria26.6%Labor
74 Barton New South Wales26.5%Labor
75 Chisholm Victoria26.5%Labor
76 Bullwinkel Western Australia26.5%One Nation
77 Swan Western Australia26.5%Labor
78 Dawson Queensland26.4%One Nation
79 Fairfax Queensland26.4%One Nation
80 Fadden Queensland26.4%One Nation
81 Banks New South Wales26.4%Coalition
82 Macarthur New South Wales26.4%Labor
83 Makin South Australia26.3%Labor
84 Sturt South Australia26.2%Labor
85 Capricornia Queensland26.2%One Nation
86 Forde Queensland26.1%One Nation
87 Kingston South Australia26.1%Labor
88 Flynn Queensland26.1%One Nation
89 Adelaide South Australia26.1%Labor
90 Moncrieff Queensland26.0%Coalition
91 Hindmarsh South Australia26.0%Labor
92 Bowman Queensland26.0%One Nation
93 Macquarie New South Wales25.9%One Nation
94 Kooyong Victoria25.8%Independent
95 Blair Queensland25.7%One Nation
96 Corio Victoria25.7%One Nation
97 Herbert Queensland25.6%Coalition
98 Watson New South Wales25.6%Labor
99 Canberra Australian Capital Territory25.6%Labor
100 Boothby South Australia25.5%Labor
101 Fowler New South Wales25.4%Independent
102 O'Connor Western Australia25.4%One Nation
103 Newcastle New South Wales25.3%Labor
104 Robertson New South Wales25.3%One Nation
105 Fisher Queensland25.2%Coalition
106 Franklin Tasmania25.2%Labor
107 Eden-Monaro New South Wales25.1%One Nation
108 Ballarat Victoria25.1%One Nation
109 Richmond New South Wales25.0%Greens
110 Canning Western Australia25.0%One Nation
111 Cunningham New South Wales24.9%Labor
112 Spence South Australia24.9%One Nation
113 Corangamite Victoria24.9%Labor
114 Blaxland New South Wales24.8%Labor
115 Shortland New South Wales24.7%One Nation
116 Mayo South Australia24.7%Centre Alliance
117 Dobell New South Wales24.7%One Nation
118 Clark Tasmania24.6%Independent
119 Melbourne Victoria24.5%Greens
120 Bendigo Victoria24.5%One Nation
121 Kennedy Queensland24.5%One Nation
122 Longman Queensland24.4%One Nation
123 Whitlam New South Wales24.3%One Nation
124 Hunter New South Wales24.2%One Nation
125 Barker South Australia24.1%Coalition
126 Calare New South Wales24.1%One Nation
127 Bass Tasmania24.0%Labor
128 Groom Queensland24.0%One Nation
129 Paterson New South Wales24.0%One Nation
130 Lyons Tasmania23.9%Labor
131 Indi Victoria23.9%Independent
132 Flinders Victoria23.8%Coalition
133 Wannon Victoria23.7%Coalition
134 Nicholls Victoria23.6%One Nation
135 Wide Bay Queensland23.6%One Nation
136 Braddon Tasmania23.5%One Nation
137 Grey South Australia23.4%One Nation
138 Farrer New South Wales23.4%One Nation
139 Page New South Wales23.4%Coalition
140 Riverina New South Wales23.3%One Nation
141 Maranoa Queensland23.3%One Nation
142 New England New South Wales23.1%One Nation
143 Monash Victoria22.9%One Nation
144 Parkes New South Wales22.8%One Nation
145 Mallee Victoria22.7%One Nation
146 Gippsland Victoria22.7%One Nation
147 Cowper New South Wales22.5%One Nation
148 Hinkler Queensland21.7%One Nation
149 Gilmore New South Wales21.7%One Nation
150 Lyne New South Wales21.2%One Nation