Australia Next federal electionby 20 May 2028in 558 days Hung parliament 96% Labor majority under 1% Calendar Track record Research
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Advanced diploma or diploma by division

Advanced diploma or diploma in every division in Australia: highest in Mackellar (12.1%), lowest in Lingiari (5.9%); the middle division is at 9.4%. Of the fifth of divisions where it is highest, our forecast has One Nation winning 16 of 30; where it is lowest, One Nation wins 19 of 30.

Canberra: 7.0% Fenner: 10.2% Banks: 10.1% Barton: 10.3% Bennelong: 9.4% Berowra: 10.3% Blaxland: 8.8% Bradfield: 9.3% Calare: 8.2% Chifley: 8.1% Cook: 11.8% Cowper: 9.0% Cunningham: 9.3% Dobell: 9.4% Eden-Monaro: 9.6% Farrer: 7.7% Fowler: 7.7% Gilmore: 9.4% Grayndler: 9.3% Greenway: 9.9% Hughes: 10.9% Hume: 10.2% Hunter: 8.4% Kingsford Smith: 9.6% Lindsay: 8.8% Lyne: 8.8% Macarthur: 9.4% Mackellar: 12.1% Macquarie: 10.7% Mitchell: 10.6% New England: 7.4% Newcastle: 8.9% Page: 8.5% Parkes: 6.7% Parramatta: 9.0% Reid: 10.4% Richmond: 10.1% Robertson: 10.7% Shortland: 9.4% Sydney: 9.6% Whitlam: 10.0% Warringah: 10.1% Wentworth: 8.8% Werriwa: 9.1% Bowman: 11.3% Brisbane: 9.4% Capricornia: 6.5% Dawson: 7.2% Fadden: 11.3% Fairfax: 11.1% Fisher: 10.7% Forde: 9.9% Griffith: 9.4% Groom: 8.8% Herbert: 8.2% Hinkler: 7.8% Kennedy: 7.0% Leichhardt: 9.5% Lilley: 10.6% Maranoa: 7.1% McPherson: 11.3% Moncrieff: 11.2% Moreton: 9.3% Oxley: 9.6% Petrie: 10.7% Rankin: 9.1% Ryan: 9.2% Wide Bay: 9.1% Adelaide: 8.6% Barker: 7.1% Boothby: 9.8% Grey: 6.6% Hindmarsh: 9.3% Kingston: 9.4% Makin: 9.1% Mayo: 10.3% Sturt: 9.2% Bass: 7.7% Braddon: 7.4% Franklin: 9.2% Lyons: 7.6% Aston: 10.9% Ballarat: 9.4% Bendigo: 9.2% Bruce: 10.4% Calwell: 9.9% Casey: 11.1% Chisholm: 9.5% Corio: 9.6% Deakin: 10.8% Dunkley: 11.2% Flinders: 11.2% Gellibrand: 10.1% Gippsland: 8.6% Goldstein: 10.4% Holt: 11.1% Hotham: 9.2% Indi: 9.9% Isaacs: 10.0% Jagajaga: 10.1% Kooyong: 8.8% Lalor: 10.2% La Trobe: 11.7% Mallee: 7.7% Maribyrnong: 9.3% McEwen: 11.4% Melbourne: 8.2% Menzies: 10.0% Scullin: 9.8% Wannon: 9.0% Wills: 8.4% Brand: 9.2% Canning: 9.1% Cowan: 9.5% Curtin: 9.1% Forrest: 8.9% Fremantle: 9.7% Moore: 11.2% O'Connor: 7.4% Pearce: 10.7% Perth: 9.9% Swan: 9.7% Tangney: 9.9% Paterson: 9.3% Riverina: 8.0% Watson: 8.6% Dickson: 11.3% Longman: 9.6% Blair: 9.2% Hasluck: 9.8% Lingiari: 5.9% Solomon: 9.0% Gorton: 9.4% Bonner: 10.3% Flynn: 6.5% Durack: 7.0% McMahon: 8.6% Wright: 9.7% Burt: 9.2% Bean: 10.5% Clark: 7.7% Cooper: 8.7% Fraser: 8.3% Macnamara: 9.7% Monash: 9.4% Nicholls: 8.5% Spence: 7.0% Hawke: 10.1% Corangamite: 11.5% Bullwinkel: 9.5%
  • 5.9% – 8.4% (29)
  • 8.4% – 9.2% (30)
  • 9.2% – 9.6% (30)
  • 9.6% – 10.3% (30)
  • 10.3% – 12.1% (31)
One hexagon per division, each the same size. Grey: no figure held.

Explore it on the interactive map →

Highest: the top 15

#DivisionAdvanced diploma or diplomaProjected
1 Mackellar 12.1%Independent
2 Cook 11.8%Coalition
3 La Trobe 11.7%One Nation
4 Corangamite 11.5%Labor
5 McEwen 11.4%One Nation
6 McPherson 11.3%One Nation
7 Bowman 11.3%One Nation
8 Fadden 11.3%One Nation
9 Dickson 11.3%One Nation
10 Dunkley 11.2%One Nation
11 Flinders 11.2%Coalition
12 Moore 11.2%One Nation
13 Moncrieff 11.2%Coalition
14 Fairfax 11.1%One Nation
15 Holt 11.1%One Nation

Lowest: the bottom 15

#DivisionAdvanced diploma or diplomaProjected
150 Lingiari 5.9%One Nation
149 Flynn 6.5%One Nation
148 Capricornia 6.5%One Nation
147 Grey 6.6%One Nation
146 Parkes 6.7%One Nation
145 Durack 7.0%One Nation
144 Spence 7.0%One Nation
143 Canberra 7.0%Labor
142 Kennedy 7.0%One Nation
141 Barker 7.1%Coalition
140 Maranoa 7.1%One Nation
139 Dawson 7.2%One Nation
138 O'Connor 7.4%One Nation
137 Braddon 7.4%One Nation
136 New England 7.4%One Nation
Every division (150), highest first
#DivisionRegionAdvanced diploma or diplomaProjected
1 Mackellar New South Wales12.1%Independent
2 Cook New South Wales11.8%Coalition
3 La Trobe Victoria11.7%One Nation
4 Corangamite Victoria11.5%Labor
5 McEwen Victoria11.4%One Nation
6 McPherson Queensland11.3%One Nation
7 Bowman Queensland11.3%One Nation
8 Fadden Queensland11.3%One Nation
9 Dickson Queensland11.3%One Nation
10 Dunkley Victoria11.2%One Nation
11 Flinders Victoria11.2%Coalition
12 Moore Western Australia11.2%One Nation
13 Moncrieff Queensland11.2%Coalition
14 Fairfax Queensland11.1%One Nation
15 Holt Victoria11.1%One Nation
16 Casey Victoria11.1%Coalition
17 Aston Victoria10.9%Coalition
18 Hughes New South Wales10.9%One Nation
19 Deakin Victoria10.8%Coalition
20 Fisher Queensland10.7%Coalition
21 Macquarie New South Wales10.7%One Nation
22 Petrie Queensland10.7%One Nation
23 Pearce Western Australia10.7%One Nation
24 Robertson New South Wales10.7%One Nation
25 Lilley Queensland10.6%Labor
26 Mitchell New South Wales10.6%Coalition
27 Bean Australian Capital Territory10.5%Labor
28 Goldstein Victoria10.4%Independent
29 Reid New South Wales10.4%Labor
30 Bruce Victoria10.4%One Nation
31 Berowra New South Wales10.3%Coalition
32 Bonner Queensland10.3%Labor
33 Mayo South Australia10.3%Centre Alliance
34 Barton New South Wales10.3%Labor
35 Fenner Australian Capital Territory10.2%Labor
36 Lalor Victoria10.2%Labor
37 Hume New South Wales10.2%Coalition
38 Jagajaga Victoria10.1%Labor
39 Banks New South Wales10.1%Coalition
40 Richmond New South Wales10.1%Greens
41 Hawke Victoria10.1%One Nation
42 Gellibrand Victoria10.1%Labor
43 Warringah New South Wales10.1%Independent
44 Isaacs Victoria10.0%Labor
45 Menzies Victoria10.0%Coalition
46 Whitlam New South Wales10.0%One Nation
47 Indi Victoria9.9%Independent
48 Forde Queensland9.9%One Nation
49 Greenway New South Wales9.9%Labor
50 Perth Western Australia9.9%Labor
51 Tangney Western Australia9.9%Labor
52 Calwell Victoria9.9%Labor
53 Hasluck Western Australia9.8%Labor
54 Scullin Victoria9.8%Labor
55 Boothby South Australia9.8%Labor
56 Fremantle Western Australia9.7%Labor
57 Macnamara Victoria9.7%Greens
58 Swan Western Australia9.7%Labor
59 Wright Queensland9.7%One Nation
60 Kingsford Smith New South Wales9.6%Labor
61 Corio Victoria9.6%One Nation
62 Longman Queensland9.6%One Nation
63 Oxley Queensland9.6%Labor
64 Eden-Monaro New South Wales9.6%One Nation
65 Sydney New South Wales9.6%Labor
66 Bullwinkel Western Australia9.5%One Nation
67 Leichhardt Queensland9.5%One Nation
68 Chisholm Victoria9.5%Labor
69 Cowan Western Australia9.5%Labor
70 Ballarat Victoria9.4%One Nation
71 Macarthur New South Wales9.4%Labor
72 Gilmore New South Wales9.4%One Nation
73 Brisbane Queensland9.4%Labor
74 Griffith Queensland9.4%Labor
75 Kingston South Australia9.4%Labor
76 Gorton Victoria9.4%Labor
77 Monash Victoria9.4%One Nation
78 Shortland New South Wales9.4%One Nation
79 Bennelong New South Wales9.4%Labor
80 Dobell New South Wales9.4%One Nation
81 Paterson New South Wales9.3%One Nation
82 Maribyrnong Victoria9.3%Labor
83 Cunningham New South Wales9.3%Labor
84 Grayndler New South Wales9.3%Labor
85 Hindmarsh South Australia9.3%Labor
86 Bradfield New South Wales9.3%Independent
87 Moreton Queensland9.3%Labor
88 Bendigo Victoria9.2%One Nation
89 Franklin Tasmania9.2%Labor
90 Burt Western Australia9.2%One Nation
91 Blair Queensland9.2%One Nation
92 Sturt South Australia9.2%Labor
93 Hotham Victoria9.2%Labor
94 Ryan Queensland9.2%Greens
95 Brand Western Australia9.2%One Nation
96 Wide Bay Queensland9.1%One Nation
97 Makin South Australia9.1%Labor
98 Canning Western Australia9.1%One Nation
99 Werriwa New South Wales9.1%Labor
100 Rankin Queensland9.1%Labor
101 Curtin Western Australia9.1%Independent
102 Parramatta New South Wales9.0%Labor
103 Wannon Victoria9.0%Coalition
104 Cowper New South Wales9.0%One Nation
105 Solomon Northern Territory9.0%One Nation
106 Newcastle New South Wales8.9%Labor
107 Forrest Western Australia8.9%One Nation
108 Lyne New South Wales8.8%One Nation
109 Wentworth New South Wales8.8%Independent
110 Blaxland New South Wales8.8%Labor
111 Groom Queensland8.8%One Nation
112 Lindsay New South Wales8.8%One Nation
113 Kooyong Victoria8.8%Independent
114 Cooper Victoria8.7%Labor
115 McMahon New South Wales8.6%One Nation
116 Watson New South Wales8.6%Labor
117 Adelaide South Australia8.6%Labor
118 Gippsland Victoria8.6%One Nation
119 Page New South Wales8.5%Coalition
120 Nicholls Victoria8.5%One Nation
121 Wills Victoria8.4%Greens
122 Hunter New South Wales8.4%One Nation
123 Fraser Victoria8.3%Labor
124 Herbert Queensland8.2%Coalition
125 Calare New South Wales8.2%One Nation
126 Melbourne Victoria8.2%Greens
127 Chifley New South Wales8.1%Labor
128 Riverina New South Wales8.0%One Nation
129 Hinkler Queensland7.8%One Nation
130 Bass Tasmania7.7%Labor
131 Mallee Victoria7.7%One Nation
132 Fowler New South Wales7.7%Independent
133 Clark Tasmania7.7%Independent
134 Farrer New South Wales7.7%One Nation
135 Lyons Tasmania7.6%Labor
136 New England New South Wales7.4%One Nation
137 Braddon Tasmania7.4%One Nation
138 O'Connor Western Australia7.4%One Nation
139 Dawson Queensland7.2%One Nation
140 Maranoa Queensland7.1%One Nation
141 Barker South Australia7.1%Coalition
142 Kennedy Queensland7.0%One Nation
143 Canberra Australian Capital Territory7.0%Labor
144 Spence South Australia7.0%One Nation
145 Durack Western Australia7.0%One Nation
146 Parkes New South Wales6.7%One Nation
147 Grey South Australia6.6%One Nation
148 Capricornia Queensland6.5%One Nation
149 Flynn Queensland6.5%One Nation
150 Lingiari Northern Territory5.9%One Nation