Polls · 2028 presidential election, national
Noble Predictive Insights , 5 March 2026
Noble Predictive Insights has Kamala Harris ahead of Gavin Newsom by 15 points in 2028 presidential election, national, 31% to 16%. Since its previous poll (6 October 2025): Gavin Newsom −5 (21 → 16), Kamala Harris −2 (33 → 31), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez −2 (8 → 6).
| Race | 2028 presidential election, national |
|---|---|
| Fieldwork | 2 March 2026 – 5 March 2026 |
| Stage | primary D |
| Sample | 1,152 (registered voters) |
| Method | – |
| Release | release |
| In our average | No: a primary, another matchup, an older poll of the same pollster, or older than the window |
Main
 Kamala Harris D |
31 | |
| Undecided | 18 | |
 Gavin Newsom D |
16 | |
| Other | 12 | |
 Pete Buttigieg D |
7 | |
 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D |
6 | |
 Josh Shapiro D |
5 | |
 Cory Booker D |
3 | |
 JB Pritzker D |
2 |
Against the other polls
Against the median of the 5 other polls of this race taken within a week of it: Kamala Harris 31% against 20%; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6% against 11%.
Noble Predictive Insights's previous poll of this race, 6 October 2025 →
Photo credits
2 official portraits from the Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (US government work, public domain): Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Cory Booker.
- Gavin Newsom: Photo: Charles Ommanney – Office of the Governor of California, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Governor_of_California_Gavin_Newsom_(cropped_3x4).jpg)
- JB Pritzker: Photo: Maryland GovPics, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:J.B._Pritzker_April_2023.jpg)
- Josh Shapiro: Photo: Governor Tom Wolf, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Josh_Shapiro_2022_(cropped).jpg)
- Kamala Harris: Photo: The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kamala_Harris_Vice_Presidential_Portrait.jpg)
- Pete Buttigieg: Photo: United States Department of Transportation, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pete_Buttigieg,_Secretary_of_Transportation.jpg)