Polls · 2028 presidential election, national
Noble Predictive Insights , 16 August 2026
Noble Predictive Insights has Kamala Harris ahead of Gavin Newsom by 14 points in 2028 presidential election, national, 28% to 14%. Since its previous poll (5 March 2026): Pete Buttigieg +5 (7 → 12), Kamala Harris −3 (31 → 28), Gavin Newsom −2 (16 → 14).
| Race | 2028 presidential election, national |
|---|---|
| Fieldwork | 12 August 2026 – 16 August 2026 |
| Stage | primary D |
| Sample | 930 (registered voters) |
| Method | – |
| Release | release |
| In our average | No: a primary, another matchup, an older poll of the same pollster, or older than the window |
Main
 Kamala Harris D |
28 | |
| Undecided | 15 | |
 Gavin Newsom D |
14 | |
 Pete Buttigieg D |
12 | |
 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D |
7 | |
 Josh Shapiro D |
5 | |
 Andy Beshear D |
3 | |
 Cory Booker D |
3 | |
 Mark Kelly D |
3 | |
 JB Pritzker D |
3 |
Against the other polls
Against the median of the 2 other polls of this race taken within a week of it: Kamala Harris 28% against 22%; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 7% against 10%.
Noble Predictive Insights's previous poll of this race, 5 March 2026 →
Photo credits
3 official portraits from the Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (US government work, public domain): Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Cory Booker, Mark Kelly.
- Andy Beshear: Photo: Dale Greer, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kentucky_Air_Guard_supports_governor's_inauguration_(1)_(cropped).jpg)
- Gavin Newsom: Photo: Charles Ommanney – Office of the Governor of California, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Governor_of_California_Gavin_Newsom_(cropped_3x4).jpg)
- JB Pritzker: Photo: Maryland GovPics, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:J.B._Pritzker_April_2023.jpg)
- Josh Shapiro: Photo: Governor Tom Wolf, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Josh_Shapiro_2022_(cropped).jpg)
- Kamala Harris: Photo: The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kamala_Harris_Vice_Presidential_Portrait.jpg)
- Pete Buttigieg: Photo: United States Department of Transportation, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pete_Buttigieg,_Secretary_of_Transportation.jpg)