Polls · 2028 presidential election, national
AtlasIntel , 19 December 2025
AtlasIntel has Gavin Newsom ahead of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by 19.4 points in 2028 presidential election, national, 35.4% to 16%. Since its previous poll (16 September 2025): Kamala Harris −12.7 (20.5 → 7.8), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +5.2 (10.8 → 16), Josh Shapiro +4 (2.1 → 6.1).
| Race | 2028 presidential election, national |
|---|---|
| Fieldwork | 15 December 2025 – 19 December 2025 |
| Stage | primary D |
| Sample | 685 (adults) |
| Method | – |
| Release | release |
| In our average | No: a primary, another matchup, an older poll of the same pollster, or older than the window |
Main
 Gavin Newsom D |
35.4 | |
 Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez D |
16 | |
 Pete Buttigieg D |
14.5 | |
| Other | 13.3 | |
 Kamala Harris D |
7.8 | |
 Josh Shapiro D |
6.1 | |
 Tim Walz D |
4.3 | |
 Cory Booker D |
2.5 |
Against the other polls
Against the median of the 4 other polls of this race taken within a week of it: Kamala Harris 7.8% against 28.5%; Gavin Newsom 35.4% against 20.5%.
AtlasIntel's previous poll of this race, 16 September 2025 →
Photo credits
2 official portraits from the Biographical Directory of the United States Congress (US government work, public domain): Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Cory Booker.
- Gavin Newsom: Photo: Charles Ommanney – Office of the Governor of California, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Governor_of_California_Gavin_Newsom_(cropped_3x4).jpg)
- Josh Shapiro: Photo: Governor Tom Wolf, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Josh_Shapiro_2022_(cropped).jpg)
- Kamala Harris: Photo: The White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Kamala_Harris_Vice_Presidential_Portrait.jpg)
- Pete Buttigieg: Photo: United States Department of Transportation, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pete_Buttigieg,_Secretary_of_Transportation.jpg)
- Tim Walz: Photo: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tim_Walz_by_Gage_Skidmore.jpg)