Victoria votes in 23 days, and the Coalition is close to a majority

Victorians vote on Saturday 28 November, after 12 years of Labor government. Ben Carroll, who replaced Jacinta Allan as Labor premier in July, faces the Liberals' Jess Wilson.

The state polls since August have all had the Coalition first:

• Resolve for The Age (6 to 10 October): Coalition 28, Labor 25, One Nation 23, Greens 15
• RedBridge for the AFR (2 to 8 October): Coalition 30, Labor 24, One Nation 24, Greens 16; Coalition ahead 56 to 44 after preferences
• Freshwater for the Herald Sun (24 to 28 September): Coalition 29, Labor 24, One Nation 22, Greens 14; 53 to 47
• DemosAU (10 to 20 September): Coalition 30, Labor 25, One Nation 20, Greens 14; 52 to 48

Our projection

From seven pollsters' latest state polls, our average has the Coalition on 30.2 per cent, Labor 24.8, One Nation 20.9 and the Greens 13.5. On those figures the Coalition wins 48 of the 88 seats, three more than the 45 needed. Labor falls from 56 seats to 26, One Nation wins 8 and the Greens 5.

That is closer than it looks. The Coalition wins a majority in 45 per cent of our simulations and is the largest party in 79 per cent; in half of them nobody has a majority.

One Nation is the uncertainty

One Nation won no seats at the 2022 Victorian election and is now on about a fifth of the vote. Its 80 per cent range in our projection runs from 2 to 24 seats. Where it finishes second, its preferences decide whether Liberal or Labor candidates win. Where it finishes first, it can win outright. Polls have little history with a party this size in Victoria, which is why the ranges are wide.

Move the statewide vote yourself on our Victorian forecast and watch the 88 districts change.