One Nation back in front in Newspoll, and Hanson's approval rises
Newspoll has One Nation on 28 and Labor on 27; YouGov has One Nation two points ahead. Our projection gives One Nation 63 seats, 13 short of a majority.
Polling Forecast
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data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
One Nation is first again in Newspoll. The poll for The Australian, published on 1 November, had One Nation on 28 per cent, Labor 27 (down 2), the Coalition 21 (up 1) and the Greens 13.
YouGov (3 November) also had One Nation ahead, on 27 to Labor's 25 and the Coalition's 23. DemosAU had Labor and One Nation level on 26, with the Coalition up 4 to 24. Essential had Labor and One Nation level on 27.7.
The leaders
Pauline Hanson's Newspoll approval rose 4 points to 47 per cent, with 48 disapproving: the best net rating of the three leaders. Anthony Albanese was on 36 approving and 59 disapproving; Angus Taylor on 37 and 47. As preferred prime minister Albanese still leads, 44 per cent to Hanson's 30 and Taylor's 26.
Our projection
Our average has Labor on 26.3 and One Nation on 26.2, effectively level. On those figures One Nation wins 63 of the 150 seats, 13 short of the 76 needed. Labor wins 54, the Coalition 15, independents 12 and the Greens 5. There is a hung parliament in 97 per cent of our simulations.
One Nation is up nearly 20 points on the 2025 election. In Queensland, DemosAU's state sample had One Nation first on 31 and Labor third on 23, behind the Coalition.
The misses
We take Australian polls as published. If they miss like 2022, One Nation wins 70 seats; like 2025, when the polls understated Labor, Labor wins 68 and One Nation 53.
The next federal election is due by May 2028.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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