The Conservatives have drawn level with Reform UK. In seats it is not close
Our average has the Conservatives on 21.9 and Reform UK on 21.3. Those almost equal shares give the Conservatives 152 seats and Reform 32.
Polling Forecast
1 min read
data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
For most of the past year Reform UK ran second in the polls, often ahead of Labour. That has ended. Our poll average now has the Conservatives on 21.9 per cent and Reform on 21.3, and the newest polls have the Conservatives ahead in three of six: More in Common 23 to 22, YouGov 24 to 21, and level with Reform in Freshwater's 22 each.
YouGov's figure for the Conservatives rose 2 points in a week. Leader ratings reported by the Daily Mail put Kemi Badenoch's net approval at +8, close to Andy Burnham's +10.
Why the seats differ so much
On almost the same share of the vote, our projection gives the Conservatives 152 seats and Reform UK 32. The difference is where the votes are. The Conservative vote is concentrated in seats the party held until 2024, many still marginal. Reform's vote is spread more evenly, so it finishes a close second in a lot of seats without winning them.
That is why each point matters so much more to Reform. We have written before that its seat count climbs steeply once it passes the low 20s. Below that it wins few seats. Above it, it starts to take seats from both Labour and the Conservatives.
What it means for Labour
A three-way split at about 22 per cent each for the Conservatives and Reform is good for Labour. With 29 per cent it is the largest party in 95 per cent of our simulations. If either opposition party pulled clearly ahead of the other, it would start taking marginal seats from Labour, and the majority in our projection, now 4, would go.
Every poll, with how each pollster usually differs from the rest, is on our poll check.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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