The most popular Budget in five years has not moved the polls for Labour
YouGov found 45 per cent thought John Healey's first Budget fair, the best score since 2021. Seven polls since then still put Labour on 26 to 31 per cent, and our projection gives it a majority of just 4.
Polling Forecast
1 min read
data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
John Healey's first Budget, on 28 October, went down well. YouGov asked 2,036 adults the next day: 45 per cent called it fair and 20 per cent unfair, the best reception for any Budget since March 2021. Removing gas standing charges and delaying the fuel duty rise were backed by more than eight in ten. A year ago only 21 per cent thought Rachel Reeves's Budget fair.
Voting intention has hardly moved. Seven polls have been published since, and Labour is on 26 to 31 per cent in all of them. Among them:
- BMG (29 October): Labour 31, Reform UK 22, Conservatives 21
- Opinium (30 October): Labour 30, Reform 22, Conservatives 20
- Freshwater Strategy (1 November): Labour 30, Reform 22, Conservatives 22
- More in Common (1 November): Labour 29, Conservatives 23, Reform 22
- Deltapoll (2 November): Labour 30, Reform 25, Conservatives 23
- YouGov (2 November): Labour 26, Conservatives 24, Reform 21
Our projection
Our average has Labour on 29.0, the Conservatives 21.9, Reform UK 21.3 and the Liberal Democrats 9.7. On those figures Labour wins 327 seats, one more than it needs: a majority of 4, down from 10 a week ago. The Conservatives win 152, the Liberal Democrats 70, Reform 32 and the SNP 29. Labour is the largest party in 95 per cent of our simulations; any party wins a majority in 47 per cent.
Why the seats are so close to the line
Taken exactly as published, the same polls would give Labour 341 seats. Our figure is lower because we allow for how British polls have missed before, and they have overstated Labour more often than not. The four closest seats in our projection are all in Scotland, each decided by a tenth of a point.
What comes next
The Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, has said there will be no election in 2027. The next one is due by 15 August 2029.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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