A repeat of 2024's polling miss would cost Labour its majority and 46 seats
Labour wins 327 seats in our projection. If the polls are as far out as they were in 2024, it falls to 281 and the Conservatives rise to 200.
Polling Forecast
1 min read
data as of 5 November Written in house from our poll data and our forecast.
Labour's majority in our projection is 4 seats, and it rests on the polls being about right. They often are not. We replay every past polling miss on today's polls to see what would change.
Four past misses, four different parliaments
- If the polls miss like 2024, when they overstated Labour, Labour falls to 281 seats and the Conservatives rise to 200. Labour would be 45 short of a majority.
- Like 2015, when the polls had Labour and the Conservatives level and the Conservatives won by 6 points, Labour falls to 292 and the Conservatives reach 206.
- Like 2019, close to our projection: Labour 322, the Conservatives 157.
- Like 2017, when the polls understated Labour, Labour wins 399 seats and the Conservatives 114.
Taken exactly as published, today's polls give Labour 341 seats. Our projection of 327 takes some of Labour's lead off, because at most elections since 2000 the final polls overstated the party.
Why the spread is so wide
With three parties between 21 and 30 per cent, a small shift moves a lot of seats. A 2024-style miss would cut Labour's lead by only a few points. That is enough to hand dozens of English marginals to the Conservatives, who finished second in many of them last time.
The 2017 miss would give Labour a landslide almost the size of 2024's. The 2024 miss would leave a hung parliament. Most past misses fall between the two. That is why Labour is the largest party in 95 per cent of our simulations, but a majority comes up in fewer than half.
You can move the polls yourself on our what-if page and watch the seats change.
Polling Forecast reads every poll in ten countries, corrects for how pollsters have missed before, and turns them into seats. Our forecasts, the polls and our methods are free to explore.
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